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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Market line KC -8.5 · total 42.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 9 rows we price on this game is strong tonight.

Strongest of themPatrick MahomesQB · KC227+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

9 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards2
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 20+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.2, median 13
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v LV2026 week 4
3v MIA2026 week 3
61v IND2026 week 2
18v DEN2026 week 1
26v NE2025 week 22
Travis Kelce TE · KC 47+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Travis KelceTE · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.8, median 36
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v LV2026 week 4
59v MIA2026 week 3
101v IND2026 week 2
71v DEN2026 week 1
12v LV2025 week 18
Receptions1
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCReceptions

DataPitch 33%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 4
2v MIA2026 week 3
6v IND2026 week 2
3v DEN2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 22
Rushing yards4
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 87+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCRushing yards

DataPitch 2% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -51pp

Under 86.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 23.2, median 17
The line
86.5

His last 5, rushing yards

177v LV2026 week 4
70v MIA2026 week 3
117v IND2026 week 2
173v DEN2026 week 1
135v NE2025 week 22
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 40+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 18%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.7, median 17
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

33v DEN2026 week 5
45v SEA2026 week 4
56v BUF2026 week 3
94v LV2026 week 2
43v ARI2026 week 1
More players (2)
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 16+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Patrick MahomesQB · KCRushing yards

DataPitch 15%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7, median 1
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v LV2026 week 4
1v MIA2026 week 3
17v IND2026 week 2
23v DEN2026 week 1
15v LAC2025 week 15
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 24+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 12%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.2, median 4
The line
23.5

His last 5, rushing yards

54v DEN2026 week 5
40v SEA2026 week 4
17v BUF2026 week 3
2v LV2026 week 2
29v ARI2026 week 1
Passing yards12
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 227+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Patrick MahomesQB · KCPassing yards

DataPitch 79% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 226.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 290.1, median 285
The line
226.5

His last 5, passing yards

210v LV2026 week 4
246v MIA2026 week 3
371v IND2026 week 2
172v DEN2026 week 1
168v LAC2025 week 15
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 192+ passing yards-117consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 191.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 210.9, median 204
The line
191.5

His last 5, passing yards

82v DEN2026 week 5
154v SEA2026 week 4
217v BUF2026 week 3
183v LV2026 week 2
187v ARI2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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