← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET · Market line JAX -3 · total 42.5

Our read on this game

5 of the 23 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and 3 of them are Jacksonville Jaguars players.

Strongest of themJakobi MeyersWR · JAX4+ receptions+124consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 5. Pending 5.

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards28
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 35+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXReceiving yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 34.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 56.6, median 51
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v PHI2026 week 5
33v CIN2026 week 4
64v NE2026 week 3
28v DEN2026 week 2
40v CLE2026 week 1
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 31+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Dalton SchultzTE · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 30.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.4, median 36
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

30v TEN2026 week 5
9v DAL2026 week 4
30v IND2026 week 3
140v CIN2026 week 2
35v BUF2026 week 1
More players (6)
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 18+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXReceiving yards

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 17.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.6, median 33
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 5
17v CIN2026 week 4
8v NE2026 week 3
40v DEN2026 week 2
40v CLE2026 week 1
Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 31+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kayshon BoutteWR · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 64% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 30.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 50.1, median 43
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

38v TEN2026 week 5
36v DAL2026 week 4
21v IND2026 week 3
37v CIN2026 week 2
21v BUF2026 week 1
Parker Washington WR · JAX 63+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Parker WashingtonWR · JAXReceiving yards

DataPitch 56% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 62.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 76.3, median 70
The line
62.5

His last 5, receiving yards

124v PHI2026 week 5
7v CIN2026 week 4
40v NE2026 week 3
98v DEN2026 week 2
83v CLE2026 week 1
Brenton Strange TE · JAX 38+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Brenton StrangeTE · JAXReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 37.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.9, median 37
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

68v PHI2026 week 5
95v CIN2026 week 4
32v NE2026 week 3
17v DEN2026 week 2
23v CLE2026 week 1
Nico Collins WR · HOU 72+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 71.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 65.2, median 59
The line
71.5

His last 5, receiving yards

56v TEN2026 week 5
118v DAL2026 week 4
75v BUF2026 week 1
21v PIT2025 week 19
57v LAC2025 week 17
Woody Marks RB · HOU 14+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Woody MarksRB · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 13.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.2, median 9
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v TEN2026 week 5
0v DAL2026 week 4
6v IND2026 week 3
27v CIN2026 week 2
-2v BUF2026 week 1
Receptions28
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 4+ receptions+124consensus market price

Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXReceptions

DataPitch 62% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 3.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 5
3v CIN2026 week 4
7v NE2026 week 3
1v DEN2026 week 2
2v CLE2026 week 1
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Dalton SchultzTE · HOUReceptions

DataPitch 63% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 3.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.6, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TEN2026 week 5
2v DAL2026 week 4
3v IND2026 week 3
12v CIN2026 week 2
4v BUF2026 week 1
More players (6)
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2+ receptions-121consensus market price

Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXReceptions

DataPitch 68% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 1.5: -106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PHI2026 week 5
2v CIN2026 week 4
1v NE2026 week 3
3v DEN2026 week 2
3v CLE2026 week 1
Parker Washington WR · JAX 5+ receptions-125consensus market price

Parker WashingtonWR · JAXReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 4.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.9, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v PHI2026 week 5
1v CIN2026 week 4
3v NE2026 week 3
7v DEN2026 week 2
5v CLE2026 week 1
Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 3+ receptions-144consensus market price

Kayshon BoutteWR · HOUReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 2.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TEN2026 week 5
3v DAL2026 week 4
2v IND2026 week 3
3v CIN2026 week 2
1v BUF2026 week 1
Brenton Strange TE · JAX 4+ receptions-147consensus market price

Brenton StrangeTE · JAXReceptions

DataPitch 51% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 3.5: +113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v PHI2026 week 5
7v CIN2026 week 4
3v NE2026 week 3
2v DEN2026 week 2
2v CLE2026 week 1
Nico Collins WR · HOU 6+ receptions-145consensus market price

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 5.5: +109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.7, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v TEN2026 week 5
7v DAL2026 week 4
7v BUF2026 week 1
3v PIT2025 week 19
3v LAC2025 week 17
Woody Marks RB · HOU 3+ receptions-108consensus market price

Woody MarksRB · HOUReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 2.5: -122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v TEN2026 week 5
0v DAL2026 week 4
1v IND2026 week 3
5v CIN2026 week 2
1v BUF2026 week 1
Rushing yards5
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 13+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXRushing yards

DataPitch 100% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +46pp

Under 12.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.6, median 68
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

25v PHI2026 week 5
0v CIN2026 week 4
25v NE2026 week 3
6v DEN2026 week 2
3v CLE2026 week 1
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX 18+ rushing yards-118consensus market price

Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAXRushing yards

DataPitch 97% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +43pp

Under 17.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.9, median 67
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v PHI2026 week 5
35v CIN2026 week 4
37v NE2026 week 3
13v DEN2026 week 2
23v CLE2026 week 1
More players (3)
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 64+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Bhayshul TutenRB · JAXRushing yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 63.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 53.4, median 48
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

72v PHI2026 week 5
73v CIN2026 week 4
73v NE2026 week 3
65v DEN2026 week 2
66v CLE2026 week 1
Woody Marks RB · HOU 51+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Woody MarksRB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 50.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 37.1, median 31
The line
50.5

His last 5, rushing yards

62v TEN2026 week 5
22v DAL2026 week 4
15v IND2026 week 3
8v CIN2026 week 2
42v BUF2026 week 1
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 10+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

C.J. StroudQB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 9.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.4, median 0
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v TEN2026 week 5
12v DAL2026 week 4
10v IND2026 week 3
29v CIN2026 week 2
15v BUF2026 week 1
Passing yards12
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 224+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXPassing yards

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 223.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 248.6, median 244
The line
223.5

His last 5, passing yards

306v PHI2026 week 5
212v CIN2026 week 4
178v NE2026 week 3
173v DEN2026 week 2
234v CLE2026 week 1
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 255+ passing yards-114consensus market price

C.J. StroudQB · HOUPassing yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 254.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 237.8, median 233
The line
254.5

His last 5, passing yards

250v TEN2026 week 5
335v DAL2026 week 4
153v IND2026 week 3
314v CIN2026 week 2
257v BUF2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 6 NFL player props, every gameJacksonville Jaguars season simulation and futures pricesHouston Texans season simulation and futures pricesWeek 5 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Other week 6 games

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos player propsBaltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns player propsCarolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles player propsChicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons player propsNew Orleans Saints at New York Giants player propsNew York Jets at New England Patriots player props

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming