← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Market line ATL +3 · total 49.5

Our read on this game

8 of the 21 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themKyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL29+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK. 3 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 8. Pending 8.

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards48
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 29+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 78% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 28.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.9, median 53
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

42v BAL2026 week 5
47v NO2026 week 4
5v GB2026 week 3
15v CAR2026 week 2
0v PIT2026 week 1
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 35+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 77% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 34.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 65.1, median 59
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v GB2026 week 5
57v NYJ2026 week 4
31v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
More players (6)
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 27+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 64% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 26.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42, median 36
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v BAL2026 week 5
2v NO2026 week 4
19v GB2026 week 3
9v CAR2026 week 2
90v PIT2026 week 1
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 10+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 9.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.1, median 16
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v GB2026 week 5
13v NYJ2026 week 4
0v PHI2026 week 3
0v MIN2026 week 2
35v CAR2026 week 1
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 24+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 23.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.4, median 27
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v BAL2026 week 5
54v NO2026 week 4
11v GB2026 week 3
11v CAR2026 week 2
19v PIT2026 week 1
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 42+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 41.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.9, median 37
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v GB2026 week 5
94v NYJ2026 week 4
44v PHI2026 week 3
43v MIN2026 week 2
52v CAR2026 week 1
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 50+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 49.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.3, median 43
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v GB2026 week 5
63v NYJ2026 week 4
61v PHI2026 week 3
32v MIN2026 week 2
63v CAR2026 week 1
Drake London WR · ATL 89+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 88.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64.1, median 58
The line
88.5

His last 5, receiving yards

118v BAL2026 week 5
96v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
29v PIT2026 week 1
Receptions48
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 3+ receptions-151consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 84% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 2.5: +117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.2, median 5
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BAL2026 week 5
3v NO2026 week 4
1v GB2026 week 3
1v CAR2026 week 2
0v PIT2026 week 1
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 4+ receptions+108consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 66% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 3.5: -144consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 5
6v NYJ2026 week 4
4v PHI2026 week 3
1v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
More players (6)
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 58% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BAL2026 week 5
1v NO2026 week 4
2v GB2026 week 3
3v CAR2026 week 2
8v PIT2026 week 1
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 2+ receptions+162consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 43% · Market 38%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 1.5: -220consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v GB2026 week 5
2v NYJ2026 week 4
0v PHI2026 week 3
0v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 2+ receptions-170consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 1.5: +125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BAL2026 week 5
2v NO2026 week 4
1v GB2026 week 3
2v CAR2026 week 2
1v PIT2026 week 1
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 5+ receptions+127consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 4.5: -170consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v GB2026 week 5
4v NYJ2026 week 4
7v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
5v CAR2026 week 1
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3+ receptions-178consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 46% · Market 64%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 2.5: +133consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v GB2026 week 5
6v NYJ2026 week 4
3v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
Drake London WR · ATL 7+ receptions+118consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 18% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 6.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

7v BAL2026 week 5
5v NO2026 week 4
9v GB2026 week 3
4v CAR2026 week 2
2v PIT2026 week 1
Rushing yards3
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 90+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 89.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 87.4, median 80
The line
89.5

His last 5, rushing yards

86v BAL2026 week 5
145v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
72v CAR2026 week 2
83v PIT2026 week 1
DoubtfulCaleb Williams QB · CHI 19+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 6 at Atlanta

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.7, median 9
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

42v MIN2026 week 2
65v CAR2026 week 1
40v LA2025 week 20
20v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
More players (1)
Brian Robinson RB · ATL 26+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Brian RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 28%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19.4, median 12
The line
25.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v BAL2026 week 5
62v NO2026 week 4
50v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
31v PIT2026 week 1
Passing yards2
DoubtfulCaleb Williams QB · CHI 220+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIPassing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 6 at Atlanta

DataPitch 59% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 219.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 241, median 236
The line
219.5

His last 5, passing yards

118v MIN2026 week 2
261v CAR2026 week 1
257v LA2025 week 20
354v GB2025 week 19
207v DET2025 week 18
DoubtfulMichael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 237+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Ribs - Questionable for Week 6 vs. Chicago

DataPitch 54% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 236.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 249.6, median 243
The line
236.5

His last 5, passing yards

223v BAL2026 week 5
215v NO2026 week 4
258v GB2026 week 3
175v CAR2025 week 11
152v IND2025 week 10

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 6 NFL player props, every gameAtlanta Falcons season simulation and futures pricesChicago Bears season simulation and futures pricesWeek 5 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Other week 6 games

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos player propsHouston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars player propsBaltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns player propsCarolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles player propsNew Orleans Saints at New York Giants player propsNew York Jets at New England Patriots player props

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming