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Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Market line LV +6 · total 53.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game is strong enough to back tonight. Every market we price is still below, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themJames Cook IIIRB · BUF9+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK.

Every market we price

16 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards5
James Cook III RB · BUF 9+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 8.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13, median 8
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v LA2026 week 5
8v NE2026 week 4
0v LAC2026 week 3
4v DET2026 week 2
12v HOU2026 week 1
Tre Tucker WR · LV 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 35.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.6, median 34
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v NE2026 week 5
44v KC2026 week 4
43v NO2026 week 3
119v LAC2026 week 2
27v MIA2026 week 1
More players (3)
Michael Mayer TE · LV 28+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 27.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.9, median 22
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v NE2026 week 5
82v KC2026 week 4
32v NO2026 week 3
23v LAC2026 week 2
32v MIA2026 week 1
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 25+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 24.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.5, median 16
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

50v NE2026 week 5
68v KC2026 week 4
37v NO2026 week 3
15v LAC2026 week 2
45v MIA2026 week 1
Brock Bowers TE · LV 78+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 7% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -46pp

Under 77.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.8, median 29
The line
77.5

His last 5, receiving yards

110v NE2026 week 5
86v KC2026 week 4
116v NO2026 week 3
33v HOU2025 week 16
28v PHI2025 week 15
Receptions5
James Cook III RB · BUF 2+ receptions-109consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 1.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LA2026 week 5
2v NE2026 week 4
0v LAC2026 week 3
1v DET2026 week 2
3v HOU2026 week 1
Michael Mayer TE · LV 3+ receptions-140consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 2.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NE2026 week 5
8v KC2026 week 4
3v NO2026 week 3
3v LAC2026 week 2
6v MIA2026 week 1
More players (3)
Tre Tucker WR · LV 4+ receptions-109consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 35% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: -121consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NE2026 week 5
4v KC2026 week 4
4v NO2026 week 3
5v LAC2026 week 2
2v MIA2026 week 1
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 4+ receptions-108consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: -122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2026 week 5
6v KC2026 week 4
3v NO2026 week 3
4v LAC2026 week 2
6v MIA2026 week 1
Brock Bowers TE · LV 7+ receptions-119consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceptions

DataPitch 11% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Under 6.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

8v NE2026 week 5
6v KC2026 week 4
10v NO2026 week 3
5v HOU2025 week 16
6v PHI2025 week 15
Rushing yards4
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 55+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 54.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 56.9, median 51
The line
54.5

His last 5, rushing yards

27v NE2026 week 5
58v KC2026 week 4
56v NO2026 week 3
48v LAC2026 week 2
102v MIA2026 week 1
Josh Allen QB · BUF 34+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 33.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 29.8, median 24
The line
33.5

His last 5, rushing yards

121v LA2026 week 5
4v NE2026 week 4
22v LAC2026 week 3
69v DET2026 week 2
23v HOU2026 week 1
More players (2)
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 3+ rushing yards+134consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 2.5: -184consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.4, median 0
The line
2.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v NE2026 week 5
0v KC2026 week 4
3v NO2026 week 3
1v LAC2026 week 2
-6v MIA2026 week 1
James Cook III RB · BUF 93+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 92.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 78.9, median 73
The line
92.5

His last 5, rushing yards

111v LA2026 week 5
75v NE2026 week 4
154v LAC2026 week 3
135v DET2026 week 2
57v HOU2026 week 1
Passing yards2
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 241+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 240.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 212.6, median 207
The line
240.5

His last 5, passing yards

220v NE2026 week 5
367v KC2026 week 4
227v NO2026 week 3
248v LAC2026 week 2
160v MIA2026 week 1
Josh Allen QB · BUF 233+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 232.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 175.9, median 171
The line
232.5

His last 5, passing yards

204v LA2026 week 5
249v NE2026 week 4
174v LAC2026 week 3
243v DET2026 week 2
323v HOU2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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