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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Week 5 · Thu Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET · Market line DAL -9.5 · total 47.5

Our read on this game

12 of the 26 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and 11 of them are Tampa Bay Buccaneers players.

Strongest of themKenny GainwellRB · TB10+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 6 Oct, 15:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 12. Pending 12.

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards510
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 31+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 81% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 30.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 71.1, median 64
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v GB2026 week 4
62v MIN2026 week 3
16v CLE2026 week 2
63v CIN2026 week 1
8v CAR2025 week 18
Cade Otton TE · TB 29+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Cade OttonTE · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 80% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 28.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 60.7, median 55
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v GB2026 week 4
56v MIN2026 week 3
38v CLE2026 week 2
26v CIN2026 week 1
94v CAR2025 week 18
More players (8)
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 9+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Kenny GainwellRB · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 78% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 8.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.8, median 21
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v GB2026 week 4
14v MIN2026 week 3
5v CLE2026 week 2
3v CIN2026 week 1
26v HOU2025 week 19
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 28+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 27.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.5, median 49
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v GB2026 week 4
25v MIN2026 week 3
46v CLE2026 week 2
40v CIN2026 week 1
8v CAR2025 week 18
Bucky Irving RB · TB 14+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 13.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.5, median 24
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v GB2026 week 4
12v MIN2026 week 3
1v CLE2026 week 2
48v CIN2026 week 1
13v CAR2025 week 18
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 32+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.7, median 44
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v HOU2026 week 4
22v BAL2026 week 3
23v WAS2026 week 2
22v NYG2026 week 1
68v NYG2025 week 18
George Pickens WR · DAL 62+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 61.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 67.2, median 61
The line
61.5

His last 5, receiving yards

75v HOU2026 week 4
82v BAL2026 week 3
40v WAS2026 week 2
28v NYG2026 week 1
9v NYG2025 week 18
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 27+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 26.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.7, median 25
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v HOU2026 week 4
23v BAL2026 week 3
43v WAS2026 week 2
6v NYG2026 week 1
5v NYG2025 week 18
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 16+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 15.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.6, median 8
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v HOU2026 week 4
5v BAL2026 week 3
20v WAS2026 week 2
31v NYG2026 week 1
0v WAS2025 week 17
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 82+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 81.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.8, median 53
The line
81.5

His last 5, receiving yards

189v HOU2026 week 4
112v BAL2026 week 3
153v WAS2026 week 2
44v NYG2026 week 1
4v NYG2025 week 18
Receptions510
Cade Otton TE · TB 4+ receptions+106consensus market price

Cade OttonTE · TBReceptions

DataPitch 76% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 3.5: -136consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.7, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v GB2026 week 4
3v MIN2026 week 3
5v CLE2026 week 2
3v CIN2026 week 1
7v CAR2025 week 18
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 4+ receptions+121consensus market price

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 68% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 3.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v GB2026 week 4
3v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
4v CIN2026 week 1
1v CAR2025 week 18
More players (8)
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2+ receptions-134consensus market price

Kenny GainwellRB · TBReceptions

DataPitch 75% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 1.5: +104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 4
2v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
1v CIN2026 week 1
4v HOU2025 week 19
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 3+ receptions-159consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 76% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 2.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 4
5v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
5v CIN2026 week 1
1v CAR2025 week 18
Bucky Irving RB · TB 3+ receptions+112consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceptions

DataPitch 54% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 2.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v GB2026 week 4
2v MIN2026 week 3
4v CLE2026 week 2
7v CIN2026 week 1
1v CAR2025 week 18
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 4+ receptions+120consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 51% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 3.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v HOU2026 week 4
2v BAL2026 week 3
5v WAS2026 week 2
2v NYG2026 week 1
5v NYG2025 week 18
George Pickens WR · DAL 5+ receptions-110consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 44% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 4.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v HOU2026 week 4
7v BAL2026 week 3
6v WAS2026 week 2
3v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 4+ receptions-108consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 3.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v HOU2026 week 4
3v BAL2026 week 3
4v WAS2026 week 2
2v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 7+ receptions+114consensus market price

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 15% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 6.5: -146consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

17v HOU2026 week 4
7v BAL2026 week 3
8v WAS2026 week 2
5v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3+ receptions-122consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

DataPitch 22% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 2.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v HOU2026 week 4
2v BAL2026 week 3
3v WAS2026 week 2
5v NYG2026 week 1
0v WAS2025 week 17
Rushing yards25
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 10+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Kenny GainwellRB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 85% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +32pp

Under 9.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 42, median 34
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v GB2026 week 4
-4v MIN2026 week 3
10v CLE2026 week 2
15v CIN2026 week 1
20v HOU2025 week 19
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 74+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 63% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 73.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 90.4, median 85
The line
73.5

His last 5, rushing yards

62v HOU2026 week 4
98v BAL2026 week 3
30v WAS2026 week 2
41v NYG2026 week 1
54v WAS2025 week 17
More players (3)
Bucky Irving RB · TB 58+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 93% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +40pp

Under 57.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 126.7, median 121
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

61v GB2026 week 4
46v MIN2026 week 3
89v CLE2026 week 2
45v CIN2026 week 1
85v CAR2025 week 18
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 10+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 9.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.6, median 5
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v HOU2026 week 4
19v BAL2026 week 3
26v WAS2026 week 2
14v NYG2026 week 1
-1v NYG2025 week 18
Tyler Goodson RB · DAL 19+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Tyler GoodsonRB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 15% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 18.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.1, median 2
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

12v HOU2026 week 4
22v BAL2026 week 3
3v HOU2025 week 18
9v SF2025 week 16
0v SEA2025 week 15
Passing yards1
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 266+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 265.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 268.5, median 263
The line
265.5

His last 5, passing yards

324v HOU2026 week 4
269v BAL2026 week 3
266v WAS2026 week 2
175v NYG2026 week 1
70v NYG2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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