Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NO +1.5 · total 42.5
Our read on this game
Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.
Capture time not held for these prices.
Every market we price
5 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.
Receiving yards01›
OChris OlaveWR · NO82+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards
DataPitch 32%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 68.4, median 64
The line
81.5
His last 5, receiving yards
116v ATL2026 week 4
107v LV2026 week 3
86v BAL2026 week 2
182v DET2026 week 1
119v TEN2025 week 17
Rushing yards02›
SAaron Jones Sr.RB · MIN63+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Aaron Jones Sr.RB · MINRushing yards
DataPitch 94%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 125.6, median 120
The line
62.5
His last 5, rushing yards
94v MIA2026 week 4
58v TB2026 week 3
105v CHI2026 week 2
40v GB2026 week 1
53v DET2025 week 17
MKyler MurrayQB · MIN20+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Kyler MurrayQB · MINRushing yards
DataPitch 71%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.1, median 34
The line
19.5
His last 5, rushing yards
16v MIA2026 week 4
17v TB2026 week 3
9v GB2026 week 1
25v TEN2025 week 5
41v SEA2025 week 4
Passing yards02›
STyler ShoughQB · NO248+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards
DataPitch 34%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated passing yards
average 224.9, median 220
The line
247.5
His last 5, passing yards
270v ATL2026 week 4
233v LV2026 week 3
233v BAL2026 week 2
378v DET2026 week 1
232v ATL2025 week 18
MKyler MurrayQB · MIN220+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Kyler MurrayQB · MINPassing yards
DataPitch 22%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated passing yards
average 174, median 169
The line
219.5
His last 5, passing yards
213v MIA2026 week 4
152v TB2026 week 3
18v GB2026 week 1
192v TEN2025 week 5
164v SEA2025 week 4
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.