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Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NE -3.5 · total 45.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themDrake MayeQB · NE228+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 6 Oct, 15:43 UK.

Every market we price

8 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards3
Tre Tucker WR · LV 41+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.2, median 31
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v KC2026 week 4
43v NO2026 week 3
119v LAC2026 week 2
27v MIA2026 week 1
30v KC2025 week 18
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 23+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 33%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19, median 15
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

68v KC2026 week 4
37v NO2026 week 3
15v LAC2026 week 2
45v MIA2026 week 1
7v KC2025 week 18
More players (1)
Brock Bowers TE · LV 72+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Brock BowersTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 8%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.1, median 27
The line
71.5

His last 5, receiving yards

86v KC2026 week 4
116v NO2026 week 3
33v HOU2025 week 16
28v PHI2025 week 15
46v DEN2025 week 14
Rushing yards3
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 59+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 35%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 51.3, median 47
The line
58.5

His last 5, rushing yards

58v KC2026 week 4
56v NO2026 week 3
48v LAC2026 week 2
102v MIA2026 week 1
87v KC2025 week 18
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Kirk CousinsQB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v KC2026 week 4
3v NO2026 week 3
1v LAC2026 week 2
-6v MIA2026 week 1
0v NO2025 week 18
More players (1)
Drake Maye QB · NE 25+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Drake MayeQB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.2, median 10
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

54v BUF2026 week 4
18v JAX2026 week 3
17v PIT2026 week 2
47v SEA2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 22
Passing yards2
Drake Maye QB · NE 228+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Drake MayeQB · NEPassing yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 227.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 237.7, median 232
The line
227.5

His last 5, passing yards

264v BUF2026 week 4
188v JAX2026 week 3
191v PIT2026 week 2
168v SEA2026 week 1
252v SEA2025 week 22
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 226+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 225.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 193.2, median 187
The line
225.5

His last 5, passing yards

367v KC2026 week 4
227v NO2026 week 3
248v LAC2026 week 2
160v MIA2026 week 1
159v NO2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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