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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Market line ARI +4.5 · total 54.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

12 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 62+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 58%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 75.6, median 70
The line
61.5

His last 5, receiving yards

95v NYG2026 week 4
89v SF2026 week 3
18v SEA2026 week 2
56v LAC2026 week 1
99v LA2025 week 18
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 33+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 56%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43, median 36
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v NYG2026 week 4
40v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
33v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
More players (5)
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 78+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 76.9, median 72
The line
77.5

His last 5, receiving yards

75v CAR2026 week 4
19v NYJ2026 week 3
142v BUF2026 week 2
67v NO2026 week 1
139v CHI2025 week 18
Trey McBride TE · ARI 68+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 67, median 61.5
The line
67.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v NYG2026 week 4
75v SF2026 week 3
41v SEA2026 week 2
95v LAC2026 week 1
65v LA2025 week 18
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 37+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.6, median 29
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v CAR2026 week 4
65v NYJ2026 week 3
61v BUF2026 week 2
30v NO2026 week 1
33v CHI2025 week 18
Jameson Williams WR · DET 57+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 50.2, median 44
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

102v CAR2026 week 4
49v NYJ2026 week 3
33v BUF2026 week 2
45v NO2026 week 1
74v CHI2025 week 18
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 48+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 32%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.3, median 33
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

84v CAR2026 week 4
44v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
48v NO2026 week 1
53v WAS2025 week 10
Rushing yards3
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 95+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 41%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 90.5, median 84
The line
94.5

His last 5, rushing yards

46v CAR2026 week 4
99v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
156v NO2026 week 1
80v CHI2025 week 18
Jared Goff QB · DET 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 39%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.1, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CAR2026 week 4
6v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
2v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
More players (1)
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 8+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIRushing yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.4, median 4
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v NYG2026 week 4
4v SF2026 week 3
7v SEA2026 week 2
14v LAC2026 week 1
19v LA2025 week 18
Passing yards2
Jared Goff QB · DET 260+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 263.6, median 258
The line
259.5

His last 5, passing yards

406v CAR2026 week 4
250v NYJ2026 week 3
289v BUF2026 week 2
204v NO2026 week 1
316v CHI2025 week 18
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 235+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIPassing yards

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 234, median 229
The line
234.5

His last 5, passing yards

147v NYG2026 week 4
272v SF2026 week 3
81v SEA2026 week 2
277v LAC2026 week 1
210v LA2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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