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Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET · Market line LAC +3.5 · total 42.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

8 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards2
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 37+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 58%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.8, median 43
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v SF2026 week 4
46v LA2026 week 3
25v JAX2026 week 2
11v KC2026 week 1
17v NE2025 week 21
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 55+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 26%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.1, median 33
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v SF2026 week 4
10v LA2026 week 3
138v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
0v TB2025 week 17
Rushing yards4
Bo Nix QB · DEN 13+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 36%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.7, median 7
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v SF2026 week 4
7v LA2026 week 3
6v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
29v BUF2025 week 20
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 60+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 40.5, median 33
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

40v SF2026 week 4
49v LA2026 week 3
36v JAX2026 week 2
36v KC2026 week 1
77v LV2025 week 10
More players (2)
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 21+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 15%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.1, median 4
The line
20.5

His last 5, rushing yards

40v SEA2026 week 4
17v BUF2026 week 3
2v LV2026 week 2
29v ARI2026 week 1
57v NE2025 week 19
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 43+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 15%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 21, median 15
The line
42.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v SEA2026 week 4
56v BUF2026 week 3
94v LV2026 week 2
43v ARI2026 week 1
-1v NE2025 week 19
Passing yards2
Bo Nix QB · DEN 215+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

DataPitch 48%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 216.7, median 212
The line
214.5

His last 5, passing yards

214v SF2026 week 4
183v LA2026 week 3
288v JAX2026 week 2
115v KC2026 week 1
279v BUF2025 week 20
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 200+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 195.4, median 190
The line
199.5

His last 5, passing yards

154v SEA2026 week 4
217v BUF2026 week 3
183v LV2026 week 2
187v ARI2026 week 1
120v NE2025 week 19

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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