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Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Week 5 · Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · Market line LA -2.5 · total 54.5

Our read on this game

4 of the 14 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Los Angeles Rams players.

Strongest of themBlake CorumRB · LA32+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 6 Oct, 15:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 4. Pending 4.

14 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards14
Puka Nacua WR · LA 93+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 92.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 125, median 120
The line
92.5

His last 5, receiving yards

125v PHI2026 week 4
74v SF2026 week 1
165v SEA2025 week 21
56v CHI2025 week 20
111v CAR2025 week 19
Davante Adams WR · LA 63+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 62.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 68.6, median 62
The line
62.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v PHI2026 week 4
137v DEN2026 week 3
195v NYG2026 week 2
26v SF2026 week 1
89v SEA2025 week 21
More players (2)
Kyren Williams RB · LA 20+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 19.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.3, median 15
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

67v PHI2026 week 4
70v DEN2026 week 3
12v NYG2026 week 2
24v SF2026 week 1
22v SEA2025 week 21
James Cook III RB · BUF 9+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.5, median 10
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v NE2026 week 4
0v LAC2026 week 3
4v DET2026 week 2
12v HOU2026 week 1
24v DEN2025 week 20
Receptions13
Puka Nacua WR · LA 7+ receptions-159consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceptions

DataPitch 75% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 6.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 9.1, median 9
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

9v PHI2026 week 4
5v SF2026 week 1
9v SEA2025 week 21
5v CHI2025 week 20
10v CAR2025 week 19
Davante Adams WR · LA 5+ receptions+107consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceptions

DataPitch 44% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 4.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v PHI2026 week 4
7v DEN2026 week 3
8v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 21
More players (1)
Kyren Williams RB · LA 3+ receptions-170consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 2.5: +128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

10v PHI2026 week 4
6v DEN2026 week 3
2v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
2v SEA2025 week 21
Rushing yards25
Blake Corum RB · LA 32+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 63.3, median 56
The line
31.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v PHI2026 week 4
15v DEN2026 week 3
79v NYG2026 week 2
54v SF2026 week 1
55v SEA2025 week 21
Kyren Williams RB · LA 70+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 69.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 85.5, median 79
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

80v PHI2026 week 4
88v DEN2026 week 3
85v NYG2026 week 2
41v SF2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 21
More players (3)
James Cook III RB · BUF 76+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 75.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 82.9, median 77
The line
75.5

His last 5, rushing yards

75v NE2026 week 4
154v LAC2026 week 3
135v DET2026 week 2
57v HOU2026 week 1
117v DEN2025 week 20
Josh Allen QB · BUF 37+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 36.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.3, median 27
The line
36.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v NE2026 week 4
22v LAC2026 week 3
69v DET2026 week 2
23v HOU2026 week 1
66v DEN2025 week 20
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Matthew StaffordQB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 39%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.8, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v PHI2026 week 4
13v DEN2026 week 3
-1v NYG2026 week 2
-1v SF2026 week 1
16v SEA2025 week 21
Passing yards2
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 281+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Matthew StaffordQB · LAPassing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 280.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 283.4, median 279
The line
280.5

His last 5, passing yards

309v PHI2026 week 4
366v DEN2026 week 3
318v NYG2026 week 2
155v SF2026 week 1
365v SEA2025 week 21
Josh Allen QB · BUF 246+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 245.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 209.6, median 204
The line
245.5

His last 5, passing yards

249v NE2026 week 4
174v LAC2026 week 3
243v DET2026 week 2
323v HOU2026 week 1
266v DEN2025 week 20

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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