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Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · Market line ATL +2.5 · total 45.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

6 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards3
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 69+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 39%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 63.4, median 57
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

118v TEN2026 week 4
84v DAL2026 week 3
150v IND2026 week 1
138v PIT2025 week 18
30v GB2025 week 17
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 36+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.1, median 23
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v TEN2026 week 4
24v DAL2026 week 3
49v NO2026 week 2
49v IND2026 week 1
14v PIT2025 week 18
More players (1)
Drake London WR · ATL 83+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 18%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.5, median 47
The line
82.5

His last 5, receiving yards

96v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
29v PIT2026 week 1
78v NO2025 week 18
Rushing yards2
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 95+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards

DataPitch 52%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 103.5, median 97
The line
94.5

His last 5, rushing yards

73v TEN2026 week 4
89v DAL2026 week 3
68v NO2026 week 2
144v IND2026 week 1
126v PIT2025 week 18
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 84+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 21%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 57.7, median 51
The line
83.5

His last 5, rushing yards

145v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
72v CAR2026 week 2
83v PIT2026 week 1
33v NO2025 week 18
Passing yards1
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 230+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 220.6, median 214
The line
229.5

His last 5, passing yards

215v NO2026 week 4
258v GB2026 week 3
175v CAR2025 week 11
152v IND2025 week 10
217v NE2025 week 9

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 5 NFL player props, every gameAtlanta Falcons season simulation and futures pricesBaltimore Ravens season simulation and futures pricesWeek 4 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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