Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · Market line ATL +2.5 · total 45.5
Our read on this game
Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.
Capture time not held for these prices.
Every market we price
6 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.
Receiving yards03›
FZay FlowersWR · BAL69+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards
DataPitch 39%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 63.4, median 57
The line
68.5
His last 5, receiving yards
118v TEN2026 week 4
84v DAL2026 week 3
150v IND2026 week 1
138v PIT2025 week 18
30v GB2025 week 17
AMark AndrewsTE · BAL36+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceiving yards
DataPitch 30%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.1, median 23
The line
35.5
His last 5, receiving yards
27v TEN2026 week 4
24v DAL2026 week 3
49v NO2026 week 2
49v IND2026 week 1
14v PIT2025 week 18
More players (1)›LDrake LondonWR · ATL83+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards
DataPitch 18%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.5, median 47
The line
82.5
His last 5, receiving yards
96v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
29v PIT2026 week 1
78v NO2025 week 18
Rushing yards02›
HDerrick HenryRB · BAL95+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards
DataPitch 52%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 103.5, median 97
The line
94.5
His last 5, rushing yards
73v TEN2026 week 4
89v DAL2026 week 3
68v NO2026 week 2
144v IND2026 week 1
126v PIT2025 week 18
RBijan RobinsonRB · ATL84+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards
DataPitch 21%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 57.7, median 51
The line
83.5
His last 5, rushing yards
145v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
72v CAR2026 week 2
83v PIT2026 week 1
33v NO2025 week 18
Passing yards01›
JMichael Penix Jr.QB · ATL230+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards
DataPitch 42%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated passing yards
average 220.6, median 214
The line
229.5
His last 5, passing yards
215v NO2026 week 4
258v GB2026 week 3
175v CAR2025 week 11
152v IND2025 week 10
217v NE2025 week 9
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.