DATAPITCH
← Props Picker, this week's games
at

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line BUF -7 · total 48.5

Our read on this game

7 of the 23 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are New England Patriots players.

Strongest of themRhamondre StevensonRB · NE19+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 7. Pending 7.

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards38
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 19+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 83% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +30pp

Under 18.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.9, median 42
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v JAX2026 week 3
3v PIT2026 week 2
44v SEA2026 week 1
40v SEA2025 week 22
0v DEN2025 week 21
Hunter Henry TE · NE 32+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Hunter HenryTE · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 80% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 65.5, median 60
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v JAX2026 week 3
40v PIT2026 week 2
26v SEA2026 week 1
31v SEA2025 week 22
12v DEN2025 week 21
More players (6)
Romeo Doubs WR · NE 40+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Romeo DoubsWR · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 68% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 39.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64.3, median 57
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v JAX2026 week 3
96v PIT2026 week 2
0v SEA2026 week 1
124v CHI2025 week 19
62v BAL2025 week 17
Mack Hollins WR · NE 44+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Mack HollinsWR · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 89% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +36pp

Under 43.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 103.3, median 97
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

87v JAX2026 week 3
18v PIT2026 week 2
51v SEA2026 week 1
78v SEA2025 week 22
51v DEN2025 week 21
Keon Coleman WR · BUF 13+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Keon ColemanWR · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 12.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.1, median 17
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v LAC2026 week 3
63v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
10v DEN2025 week 20
36v JAX2025 week 19
James Cook III RB · BUF 7+ receiving yards-120consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 6.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.2, median 9
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LAC2026 week 3
4v DET2026 week 2
12v HOU2026 week 1
24v DEN2025 week 20
5v JAX2025 week 19
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 41+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 40.5: -118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37, median 32
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v LAC2026 week 3
38v DET2026 week 2
50v HOU2026 week 1
75v DEN2025 week 20
82v JAX2025 week 19
DJ Moore WR · BUF 48+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 47.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.5, median 23
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

67v LAC2026 week 3
0v DET2026 week 2
100v HOU2026 week 1
52v LA2025 week 20
64v GB2025 week 19
Receptions38
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3+ receptions-138consensus market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceptions

DataPitch 84% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 2.5: +103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.3, median 5
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v JAX2026 week 3
1v PIT2026 week 2
5v SEA2026 week 1
5v SEA2025 week 22
0v DEN2025 week 21
Hunter Henry TE · NE 4+ receptions-108consensus market price

Hunter HenryTE · NEReceptions

DataPitch 68% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 3.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v JAX2026 week 3
3v PIT2026 week 2
3v SEA2026 week 1
3v SEA2025 week 22
2v DEN2025 week 21
More players (6)
Romeo Doubs WR · NE 4+ receptions+109consensus market price

Romeo DoubsWR · NEReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 3.5: -153consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v JAX2026 week 3
3v PIT2026 week 2
0v SEA2026 week 1
8v CHI2025 week 19
3v BAL2025 week 17
Mack Hollins WR · NE 4+ receptions-130consensus market price

Mack HollinsWR · NEReceptions

DataPitch 87% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +30pp

Under 3.5: -104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.9, median 7
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v JAX2026 week 3
2v PIT2026 week 2
4v SEA2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 22
2v DEN2025 week 21
Keon Coleman WR · BUF 2+ receptions-102consensus market price

Keon ColemanWR · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 49% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 1.5: -127consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 3
6v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
1v DEN2025 week 20
1v JAX2025 week 19
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 4+ receptions-142consensus market price

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 3.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 3
3v DET2026 week 2
4v HOU2026 week 1
7v DEN2025 week 20
12v JAX2025 week 19
James Cook III RB · BUF 2+ receptions+105consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 43% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 1.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v LAC2026 week 3
1v DET2026 week 2
3v HOU2026 week 1
2v DEN2025 week 20
2v JAX2025 week 19
DJ Moore WR · BUF 4+ receptions-144consensus market price

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 19% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 3.5: +108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LAC2026 week 3
0v DET2026 week 2
5v HOU2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 20
6v GB2025 week 19
Rushing yards5
DoubtfulJosh Allen QB · BUF 32+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - Questionable for Week 4 vs. New England

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 30.4, median 25
The line
31.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v LAC2026 week 3
69v DET2026 week 2
23v HOU2026 week 1
66v DEN2025 week 20
33v JAX2025 week 19
James Cook III RB · BUF 88+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 87.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 78.7, median 73
The line
87.5

His last 5, rushing yards

154v LAC2026 week 3
135v DET2026 week 2
57v HOU2026 week 1
117v DEN2025 week 20
46v JAX2025 week 19
More players (3)
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 33+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 32.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 28.6, median 21
The line
32.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v JAX2026 week 3
43v PIT2026 week 2
51v SEA2026 week 1
23v SEA2025 week 22
71v DEN2025 week 21
TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 42+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

TreVeyon HendersonRB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 41.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.3, median 19
The line
41.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v JAX2026 week 3
76v PIT2026 week 2
19v SEA2025 week 22
5v DEN2025 week 21
25v HOU2025 week 20
Drake Maye QB · NE 27+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Drake MayeQB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 19% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 26.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.8, median 9
The line
26.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v JAX2026 week 3
17v PIT2026 week 2
47v SEA2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 22
65v DEN2025 week 21
Passing yards12
Drake Maye QB · NE 232+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Drake MayeQB · NEPassing yards

DataPitch 72% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 231.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 283.1, median 278
The line
231.5

His last 5, passing yards

188v JAX2026 week 3
191v PIT2026 week 2
168v SEA2026 week 1
252v SEA2025 week 22
65v DEN2025 week 21
DoubtfulJosh Allen QB · BUF 243+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - Questionable for Week 4 vs. New England

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 242.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 180.8, median 175
The line
242.5

His last 5, passing yards

174v LAC2026 week 3
243v DET2026 week 2
323v HOU2026 week 1
266v DEN2025 week 20
261v JAX2025 week 19

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 4 NFL player props, every gameBuffalo Bills season simulation and futures pricesNew England Patriots season simulation and futures pricesWeek 3 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Other week 4 games

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns player propsIndianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders player propsArizona Cardinals at New York Giants player propsDallas Cowboys at Houston Texans player propsGreen Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers player propsJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals player props

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, free to use and priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming