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Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line PHI +3.5 · total 42.5

How our calls did

Final: Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20

Called before kickoff: 7. Won 4, lost 3.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 4 Oct, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

15 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards14
Puka Nacua WR · LA 72+ receiving yardsWon125 yds-113consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 125 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 82% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 71.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 123.1, median 117
The line
71.5

His last 5, receiving yards

74v SF2026 week 1
165v SEA2025 week 21
56v CHI2025 week 20
111v CAR2025 week 19
76v ARI2025 week 18
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 16+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 100% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +48pp

Under 15.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 126.4, median 122
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

-2v CHI2026 week 3
11v TEN2026 week 2
-3v WAS2026 week 1
25v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
More players (2)
Kyren Williams RB · LA 14+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 67 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 13.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.8, median 15
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

70v DEN2026 week 3
12v NYG2026 week 2
24v SF2026 week 1
22v SEA2025 week 21
30v CHI2025 week 20
Davante Adams WR · LA 67+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 66.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64, median 58
The line
66.5

His last 5, receiving yards

137v DEN2026 week 3
195v NYG2026 week 2
26v SF2026 week 1
89v SEA2025 week 21
24v CHI2025 week 20
Receptions14
Puka Nacua WR · LA 7+ receptionsWon9 receptions-110consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceptions

How it ended: Won, 9 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 72% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 6.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 8.8, median 8
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SF2026 week 1
9v SEA2025 week 21
5v CHI2025 week 20
10v CAR2025 week 19
10v ARI2025 week 18
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 3+ receptions+125consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 100% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +56pp

Under 2.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 15.5, median 15
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CHI2026 week 3
1v TEN2026 week 2
1v WAS2026 week 1
3v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
More players (2)
Kyren Williams RB · LA 3+ receptions+125consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 2.5: -163consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

6v DEN2026 week 3
2v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
2v SEA2025 week 21
4v CHI2025 week 20
Davante Adams WR · LA 5+ receptions-140consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 4.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v DEN2026 week 3
8v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 21
2v CHI2025 week 20
Rushing yards35
Kyren Williams RB · LA 58+ rushing yardsWon80 yds-118consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Won, 80 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 57.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 80.4, median 74
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

88v DEN2026 week 3
85v NYG2026 week 2
41v SF2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 21
87v CHI2025 week 20
Blake Corum RB · LA 40+ rushing yardsLost14 yds-114consensus market price

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 14 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 64% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 39.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 58.4, median 51
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v DEN2026 week 3
79v NYG2026 week 2
54v SF2026 week 1
55v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
More players (3)
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 70+ rushing yardsLost8 yds-111consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 8 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 63% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 69.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 88.7, median 83
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

82v CHI2026 week 3
9v TEN2026 week 2
83v WAS2026 week 1
106v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 1+ rushing yards-105consensus market price

Matthew StaffordQB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Won, 10 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 0.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.7, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

13v DEN2026 week 3
-1v NYG2026 week 2
-1v SF2026 week 1
16v SEA2025 week 21
-1v CHI2025 week 20
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 27+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 26.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.7, median 17
The line
26.5

His last 5, rushing yards

25v CHI2026 week 3
16v TEN2026 week 2
46v WAS2026 week 1
14v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
Passing yards22
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 188+ passing yardsLost93 yds-108consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 93 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 87% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +35pp

Under 187.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 270.2, median 264
The line
187.5

His last 5, passing yards

141v CHI2026 week 3
252v TEN2026 week 2
182v WAS2026 week 1
167v SF2025 week 19
108v BUF2025 week 17
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 250+ passing yardsWon317 yds-115consensus market price

Matthew StaffordQB · LAPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 317 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 249.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 276.7, median 272
The line
249.5

His last 5, passing yards

366v DEN2026 week 3
318v NYG2026 week 2
155v SF2026 week 1
365v SEA2025 week 21
229v CHI2025 week 20

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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Week 4 NFL player props, every gamePhiladelphia Eagles season simulation and futures pricesLos Angeles Rams season simulation and futures pricesWeek 3 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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