DATAPITCH
← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line PHI +3 · total 43.5

Our read on this game

6 of the 10 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themJalen HurtsQB · PHI205+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 6. Pending 6.

10 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards12
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 69+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 77% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 68.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 106.2, median 100
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

65v CHI2026 week 3
117v TEN2026 week 2
53v WAS2026 week 1
70v SF2025 week 19
52v WAS2025 week 18
Davante Adams WR · LA 75+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 74.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59, median 53
The line
74.5

His last 5, receiving yards

137v DEN2026 week 3
195v NYG2026 week 2
26v SF2026 week 1
89v SEA2025 week 21
24v CHI2025 week 20
Receptions12
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6+ receptions-150consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceptions

DataPitch 77% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 5.5: +112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 8.1, median 8
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CHI2026 week 3
10v TEN2026 week 2
3v WAS2026 week 1
8v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
Davante Adams WR · LA 6+ receptions+115consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceptions

DataPitch 20% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 5.5: -151consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v DEN2026 week 3
8v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 21
2v CHI2025 week 20
Rushing yards24
Kyren Williams RB · LA 58+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 68% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 57.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 80.3, median 75
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

88v DEN2026 week 3
85v NYG2026 week 2
41v SF2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 21
87v CHI2025 week 20
Blake Corum RB · LA 42+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 41.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 59, median 52
The line
41.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v DEN2026 week 3
79v NYG2026 week 2
54v SF2026 week 1
55v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
More players (2)
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 79+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIRushing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 78.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71, median 65
The line
78.5

His last 5, rushing yards

82v CHI2026 week 3
9v TEN2026 week 2
83v WAS2026 week 1
106v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 25+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIRushing yards

DataPitch 27% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 24.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.8, median 13
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

25v CHI2026 week 3
16v TEN2026 week 2
46v WAS2026 week 1
14v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
Passing yards22
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 205+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIPassing yards

DataPitch 80% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 204.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 271.3, median 267
The line
204.5

His last 5, passing yards

141v CHI2026 week 3
252v TEN2026 week 2
182v WAS2026 week 1
167v SF2025 week 19
108v BUF2025 week 17
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 253+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Matthew StaffordQB · LAPassing yards

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 252.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 278.3, median 272
The line
252.5

His last 5, passing yards

366v DEN2026 week 3
318v NYG2026 week 2
155v SF2026 week 1
365v SEA2025 week 21
229v CHI2025 week 20

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 4 NFL player props, every gamePhiladelphia Eagles season simulation and futures pricesLos Angeles Rams season simulation and futures pricesWeek 3 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Other week 4 games

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns player propsIndianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders player propsArizona Cardinals at New York Giants player propsDallas Cowboys at Houston Texans player propsGreen Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers player propsJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals player props

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, free to use and priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming