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Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Market line SEA -7 · total 42.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 22 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Los Angeles Chargers players.

Strongest of themOmarion HamptonRB · LAC2+ receptions+120consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

22 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards18
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 56.1, median 51
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v BUF2026 week 3
7v LV2026 week 2
17v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
98v HOU2025 week 17
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 26+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 25.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.9, median 39
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

46v WAS2026 week 3
20v ARI2026 week 2
35v NE2026 week 1
61v NE2025 week 22
36v LA2025 week 21
More players (6)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 91+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 90.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 94.2, median 89
The line
90.5

His last 5, receiving yards

128v WAS2026 week 3
155v ARI2026 week 2
122v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
153v LA2025 week 21
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 46+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 45.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.3, median 40
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v BUF2026 week 3
35v LV2026 week 2
82v ARI2026 week 1
32v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
AJ Barner TE · SEA 32+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.7, median 19
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

69v WAS2026 week 3
8v ARI2026 week 2
13v NE2026 week 1
54v NE2025 week 22
13v LA2025 week 21
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 6+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 85%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.5, median 20
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v BUF2026 week 3
21v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 31+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 60%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.8, median 37
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

76v BUF2026 week 3
53v LV2026 week 2
20v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
28v DEN2025 week 18
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 21+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.8, median 18
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

14v WAS2026 week 3
35v ARI2026 week 2
4v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
51v LA2025 week 21
Receptions28
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 2+ receptions+120consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

DataPitch 76% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +30pp

Under 1.5: -147consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v BUF2026 week 3
2v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
8v HOU2025 week 17
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 3+ receptions-170consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceptions

DataPitch 73% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 2.5: +129consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v BUF2026 week 3
1v LV2026 week 2
2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
5v HOU2025 week 17
More players (6)
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions+110consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 73% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 2.5: -146consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v WAS2026 week 3
2v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 22
4v LA2025 week 21
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 3+ receptions-116consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceptions

DataPitch 61% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 3
1v LV2026 week 2
3v ARI2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 7+ receptions-135consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 49% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 6.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.7, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

10v WAS2026 week 3
9v ARI2026 week 2
8v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
10v LA2025 week 21
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 2+ receptions-147consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 1.5: +122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v WAS2026 week 3
3v ARI2026 week 2
1v NE2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 22
1v LA2025 week 21
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 4+ receptions-165consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceptions

DataPitch 45% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: +125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BUF2026 week 3
3v LV2026 week 2
5v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
1v HOU2025 week 17
AJ Barner TE · SEA 4+ receptions+122consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 24% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 3.5: -170consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v WAS2026 week 3
1v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
2v LA2025 week 21
Rushing yards4
Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA 43+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Emanuel WilsonRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 42.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 40.5, median 34
The line
42.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v WAS2026 week 3
92v ARI2026 week 2
3v NE2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 19
44v MIN2025 week 18
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 48+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 13% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 47.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.9, median 17
The line
47.5

His last 5, rushing yards

56v BUF2026 week 3
94v LV2026 week 2
43v ARI2026 week 1
-1v NE2025 week 19
29v HOU2025 week 17
More players (2)
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 6+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Sam DarnoldQB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 53%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.9, median 6
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v WAS2026 week 3
0v NE2026 week 1
5v NE2025 week 22
9v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 20+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 17%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.8, median 5
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

17v BUF2026 week 3
2v LV2026 week 2
29v ARI2026 week 1
57v NE2025 week 19
37v HOU2025 week 17
Passing yards2
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 199+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 198.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 202.2, median 197
The line
198.5

His last 5, passing yards

217v BUF2026 week 3
183v LV2026 week 2
187v ARI2026 week 1
120v NE2025 week 19
201v HOU2025 week 17
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 233+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEAPassing yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 232.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 206.3, median 200
The line
232.5

His last 5, passing yards

379v WAS2026 week 3
8v NE2026 week 1
194v NE2025 week 22
321v LA2025 week 21
106v SF2025 week 20

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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