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Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Market line SEA -7 · total 42.5

How our calls did

Final: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30

Called before kickoff: 7. Won 5, lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 4 Oct, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

30 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards311
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 6+ receiving yardsWon8 yds-112consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 8 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 88% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +35pp

Under 5.5: -106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.1, median 23
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v BUF2026 week 3
21v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 36+ receiving yardsWon44 yds-113consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 44 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 72% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 35.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 61.7, median 56
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v BUF2026 week 3
7v LV2026 week 2
17v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
98v HOU2025 week 17
More players (9)
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 28+ receiving yardsWon36 yds-115consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 36 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 27.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.2, median 40
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v BUF2026 week 3
18v LV2026 week 2
32v ARI2026 week 1
30v NE2025 week 19
23v DEN2025 week 18
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 24+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 23.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.5, median 39
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

46v WAS2026 week 3
20v ARI2026 week 2
35v NE2026 week 1
61v NE2025 week 22
36v LA2025 week 21
Tory Horton WR · SEA 12+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 11.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.3, median 21
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v WAS2026 week 3
48v WAS2025 week 9
0v HOU2025 week 7
0v JAX2025 week 6
39v TB2025 week 5
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 37+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 60 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 36.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.7, median 42
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

76v BUF2026 week 3
53v LV2026 week 2
20v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
28v DEN2025 week 18
Eric Saubert TE · SEA 25+ receiving yards+850consensus market price

Eric SaubertTE · SEAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 11%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.3, median 4
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v WAS2026 week 3
-10v ARI2026 week 2
0v NE2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 21
10v SF2025 week 18
DoubtfulLadd McConkey WR · LAC 48+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Foot - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 4 at Seattle

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 47.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.8, median 45
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v BUF2026 week 3
35v LV2026 week 2
82v ARI2026 week 1
32v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 94+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 76 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 93.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 94.2, median 89
The line
93.5

His last 5, receiving yards

128v WAS2026 week 3
155v ARI2026 week 2
122v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
153v LA2025 week 21
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 23+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 22.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.6, median 18
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

14v WAS2026 week 3
35v ARI2026 week 2
4v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
51v LA2025 week 21
AJ Barner TE · SEA 31+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 12 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 30.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.7, median 18
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

69v WAS2026 week 3
8v ARI2026 week 2
13v NE2026 week 1
54v NE2025 week 22
13v LA2025 week 21
Receptions411
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 2+ receptionsWon2 receptions+110consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 80% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +32pp

Under 1.5: -145consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v BUF2026 week 3
2v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
8v HOU2025 week 17
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 4+ receptionsLost1 reception+125consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 3.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v BUF2026 week 3
1v LV2026 week 2
2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
5v HOU2025 week 17
More players (9)
Eric Saubert TE · SEA 1+ receptionsLost0 receptions+105consensus market price

Eric SaubertTE · SEAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 0.5: -145consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 0.9, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v WAS2026 week 3
1v ARI2026 week 2
0v NE2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 21
2v SF2025 week 18
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 3+ receptionsWon5 receptions-142consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 64% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 2.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v BUF2026 week 3
2v LV2026 week 2
2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions+115consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 74% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 2.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v WAS2026 week 3
2v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 22
4v LA2025 week 21
Tory Horton WR · SEA 2+ receptions+150consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 1.5: -205consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v WAS2026 week 3
4v WAS2025 week 9
0v HOU2025 week 7
0v JAX2025 week 6
3v TB2025 week 5
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 4+ receptions+116consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 3.5: -152consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 3
1v LV2026 week 2
3v ARI2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 7+ receptions-140consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 6.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.7, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

10v WAS2026 week 3
9v ARI2026 week 2
8v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
10v LA2025 week 21
DoubtfulLadd McConkey WR · LAC 5+ receptions+124consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Foot - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 4 at Seattle

DataPitch 35% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 4.5: -170consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BUF2026 week 3
3v LV2026 week 2
5v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
1v HOU2025 week 17
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3+ receptions+138consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -175consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v WAS2026 week 3
3v ARI2026 week 2
1v NE2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 22
1v LA2025 week 21
AJ Barner TE · SEA 4+ receptions+125consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 3.5: -168consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v WAS2026 week 3
1v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
2v LA2025 week 21
Rushing yards6
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 5+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEARushing yards

How it ended: Won, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 4.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v WAS2026 week 3
0v NE2026 week 1
5v NE2025 week 22
9v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA 50+ rushing yards-108consensus market price

Emanuel WilsonRB · SEARushing yards

How it ended: Won, 81 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 49.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.6, median 34
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v WAS2026 week 3
92v ARI2026 week 2
3v NE2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 19
44v MIN2025 week 18
More players (4)
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 46+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 45 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 45.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 30.1, median 24
The line
45.5

His last 5, rushing yards

56v BUF2026 week 3
94v LV2026 week 2
43v ARI2026 week 1
-1v NE2025 week 19
29v HOU2025 week 17
Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 19+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Keaton MitchellRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 39 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 18.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.9, median 5
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v BUF2026 week 3
24v LV2026 week 2
9v ARI2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
31v GB2025 week 17
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 21+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 20.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.5, median 7
The line
20.5

His last 5, rushing yards

17v BUF2026 week 3
2v LV2026 week 2
29v ARI2026 week 1
57v NE2025 week 19
37v HOU2025 week 17
George Holani RB · SEA 36+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

George HolaniRB · SEARushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 35.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14, median 7
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v WAS2026 week 3
13v ARI2026 week 2
29v NE2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 22
4v LA2025 week 21
Passing yards2
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 200+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 189 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 199.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 202.5, median 197
The line
199.5

His last 5, passing yards

217v BUF2026 week 3
183v LV2026 week 2
187v ARI2026 week 1
120v NE2025 week 19
201v HOU2025 week 17
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 234+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEAPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 168 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 233.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 206.2, median 201
The line
233.5

His last 5, passing yards

379v WAS2026 week 3
8v NE2026 week 1
194v NE2025 week 22
321v LA2025 week 21
106v SF2025 week 20

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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