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Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.
Strongest of themJosh DownsWR · IND1+ rushing yards+500consensus market pricePrices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK. 1 row on this game carries a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.
20 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.
TJonathan Taylor RB · IND 20+ receiving yards-114consensus market priceJonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards
DataPitch 48% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
Under 19.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
AKeenan Allen WR · IND 35+ receiving yards-115consensus market priceKeenan AllenWR · INDReceiving yards
DataPitch 48% · Market 54%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
Under 34.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
WTyler Warren TE · IND 47+ receiving yards-114consensus market priceTyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards
DataPitch 38% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
Under 46.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DStefon Diggs WR · WAS 42+ receiving yards-114consensus market priceStefon DiggsWR · WASReceiving yards
DataPitch 34% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
Under 41.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
MTerry McLaurin WR · WAS 56+ receiving yards-114consensus market priceTerry McLaurinWR · WASReceiving yards
DataPitch 23% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
Under 55.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DJosh Downs WR · IND 64+ receiving yards-117consensus market priceJosh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards
DataPitch 15% · Market 54%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
Under 63.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
TJonathan Taylor RB · IND 3+ receptions-130consensus market priceJonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions
DataPitch 47% · Market 57%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
Under 2.5: +100consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
AKeenan Allen WR · IND 4+ receptions-120consensus market priceKeenan AllenWR · INDReceptions
DataPitch 39% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
Under 3.5: -104consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DJosh Downs WR · IND 6+ receptions+120consensus market priceJosh DownsWR · INDReceptions
DataPitch 18% · Market 46%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
Under 5.5: -159consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
WTyler Warren TE · IND 6+ receptions-101consensus market priceTyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions
DataPitch 23% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
Under 5.5: -130consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DStefon Diggs WR · WAS 5+ receptions+120consensus market priceStefon DiggsWR · WASReceptions
DataPitch 17% · Market 46%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
Under 4.5: -155consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
MTerry McLaurin WR · WAS 5+ receptions-111consensus market priceTerry McLaurinWR · WASReceptions
DataPitch 16% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
Under 4.5: -115consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DJosh Downs WR · IND 1+ rushing yards+500consensus market priceJosh DownsWR · INDRushing yards
DataPitch 17% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
Under 0.5: -833consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
TJonathan Taylor RB · IND 91+ rushing yards-115consensus market priceJonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards
DataPitch 49% · Market 54%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
Under 90.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
JDaniel Jones QB · IND 12+ rushing yards-114consensus market priceDaniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards
DataPitch 38% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
Under 11.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
MMarcus Mariota QB · WAS 28+ rushing yards-114consensus market priceMarcus MariotaQB · WASRushing yards
DataPitch 21% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
Under 27.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
CJacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 56+ rushing yards-113consensus market priceJacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASRushing yards
DataPitch 18% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
Under 55.5: -115consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
MMarcus Mariota QB · WAS 213+ passing yards-114consensus market priceMarcus MariotaQB · WASPassing yards
DataPitch 48% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
Under 212.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
JDaniel Jones QB · IND 225+ passing yards-114consensus market priceDaniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards
DataPitch 40% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
Under 224.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DDoubtfulJayden Daniels QB · WAS 218+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shownJayden DanielsQB · WASPassing yards
Doubtful: Questionable: Elbow - Questionable for Week 4 vs. Indianapolis
DataPitch 22%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.
