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Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13
Called before kickoff: 1. Lost 1.
Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 4 Oct, 13:30 UK.
22 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.
TJonathan Taylor RB · IND 20+ receiving yardsLost2 yds-114consensus market priceJonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards
How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.
DataPitch 58% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
Under 19.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
BTreylon Burks WR · WAS 19+ receiving yards-115consensus market priceTreylon BurksWR · WASReceiving yards
How it ended: Won, 47 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 54% · Market 54%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
Under 18.5: -111consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
WTyler Warren TE · IND 58+ receiving yards-110consensus market priceTyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards
How it ended: Lost, 41 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 38% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
Under 57.5: -111consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
OChig Okonkwo TE · WAS 30+ receiving yards-113consensus market priceChig OkonkwoTE · WASReceiving yards
How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 31% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
Under 29.5: -115consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DStefon Diggs WR · WAS 57+ receiving yards-117consensus market priceStefon DiggsWR · WASReceiving yards
How it ended: Lost, 35 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 31% · Market 54%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
Under 56.5: -112consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DJosh Downs WR · IND 70+ receiving yards-115consensus market priceJosh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards
How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 18% · Market 54%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
Under 69.5: -117consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
BJohn Bates TE · WAS 1+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-04 capture; an older price is not shownJohn BatesTE · WASReceiving yards
How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 79%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
TJonathan Taylor RB · IND 3+ receptions-130consensus market priceJonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions
How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 58% · Market 57%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
Under 2.5: +100consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
BTreylon Burks WR · WAS 2+ receptions-161consensus market priceTreylon BurksWR · WASReceptions
How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 55% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
Under 1.5: +125consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
WTyler Warren TE · IND 6+ receptions-141consensus market priceTyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions
How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 34% · Market 59%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
Under 5.5: +108consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
OChig Okonkwo TE · WAS 4+ receptions+109consensus market priceChig OkonkwoTE · WASReceptions
How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 22% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
Under 3.5: -140consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DStefon Diggs WR · WAS 6+ receptions-108consensus market priceStefon DiggsWR · WASReceptions
How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 17% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
Under 5.5: -120consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DJosh Downs WR · IND 7+ receptions-125consensus market priceJosh DownsWR · INDReceptions
How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 18% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
Under 6.5: -105consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
BJohn Bates TE · WAS 1+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-04 capture; an older price is not shownJohn BatesTE · WASReceptions
How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 79%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
WTyler Warren TE · IND 1+ rushing yards+600consensus market priceTyler WarrenTE · INDRushing yards
How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 17% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
Under 0.5: -1000consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
TJonathan Taylor RB · IND 94+ rushing yards-118consensus market priceJonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards
How it ended: Won, 95 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 47% · Market 54%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
Under 93.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DJosh Downs WR · IND 1+ rushing yards+250consensus market priceJosh DownsWR · INDRushing yards
How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 17% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
Under 0.5: -345consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
JDaniel Jones QB · IND 11+ rushing yards-109consensus market priceDaniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards
How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 41% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
Under 10.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
MMarcus Mariota QB · WAS 27+ rushing yards-113consensus market priceMarcus MariotaQB · WASRushing yards
How it ended: Won, 35 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 28% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
Under 26.5: -114consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
CJacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 61+ rushing yards-110consensus market priceJacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASRushing yards
How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 23% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
Under 60.5: -113consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
MMarcus Mariota QB · WAS 204+ passing yards-112consensus market priceMarcus MariotaQB · WASPassing yards
How it ended: Lost, 46 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 53% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
Under 203.5: -110consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
JDaniel Jones QB · IND 220+ passing yards-113consensus market priceDaniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards
How it ended: Lost, 143 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.
DataPitch 43% · Market 53%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
Under 219.5: -106consensus market price
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.
