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Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line HOU -2.5 · total 48.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 20 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and 2 of them are Houston Texans players.

Strongest of themJavonte WilliamsRB · DAL61+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

20 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 34+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 68% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 33.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.2, median 48
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v BAL2026 week 3
23v WAS2026 week 2
22v NYG2026 week 1
68v NYG2025 week 18
18v LAC2025 week 16
Woody Marks RB · HOU 9+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Woody MarksRB · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 8.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.5, median 11
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v IND2026 week 3
27v CIN2026 week 2
-2v BUF2026 week 1
19v NE2025 week 20
0v PIT2025 week 19
More players (6)
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 25+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 24.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.2, median 27
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v BAL2026 week 3
43v WAS2026 week 2
6v NYG2026 week 1
5v NYG2025 week 18
6v WAS2025 week 17
DoubtfulNico Collins WR · HOU 73+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 4 vs. Dallas

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 72.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 76.4, median 70
The line
72.5

His last 5, receiving yards

75v BUF2026 week 1
21v PIT2025 week 19
57v LAC2025 week 17
59v LV2025 week 16
85v ARI2025 week 15
George Pickens WR · DAL 69+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 68.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 72.1, median 66
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

82v BAL2026 week 3
40v WAS2026 week 2
28v NYG2026 week 1
9v NYG2025 week 18
78v WAS2025 week 17
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 46+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Dalton SchultzTE · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 45.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.4, median 36
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

30v IND2026 week 3
140v CIN2026 week 2
35v BUF2026 week 1
47v NE2025 week 20
12v PIT2025 week 19
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 14+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 13.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.5, median 9
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v BAL2026 week 3
20v WAS2026 week 2
31v NYG2026 week 1
0v WAS2025 week 17
9v LAC2025 week 16
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 77+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 76.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 63.6, median 57
The line
76.5

His last 5, receiving yards

112v BAL2026 week 3
153v WAS2026 week 2
44v NYG2026 week 1
4v NYG2025 week 18
46v WAS2025 week 17
Receptions8
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BAL2026 week 3
5v WAS2026 week 2
2v NYG2026 week 1
5v NYG2025 week 18
2v LAC2025 week 16
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 3.5: -131consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v BAL2026 week 3
4v WAS2026 week 2
2v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
1v WAS2025 week 17
More players (6)
George Pickens WR · DAL 5+ receptions-142consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 4.5: +108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.9, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v BAL2026 week 3
6v WAS2026 week 2
3v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
4v WAS2025 week 17
Woody Marks RB · HOU 2+ receptions-140consensus market price

Woody MarksRB · HOUReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 1.5: +107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v IND2026 week 3
5v CIN2026 week 2
1v BUF2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 20
0v PIT2025 week 19
DoubtfulNico Collins WR · HOU 6+ receptions-102consensus market price

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 4 vs. Dallas

DataPitch 37% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 5.5: -129consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v BUF2026 week 1
3v PIT2025 week 19
3v LAC2025 week 17
4v LV2025 week 16
3v ARI2025 week 15
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 5+ receptions-154consensus market price

Dalton SchultzTE · HOUReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 4.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v IND2026 week 3
12v CIN2026 week 2
4v BUF2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 20
3v PIT2025 week 19
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 6+ receptions-136consensus market price

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 32% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 5.5: +103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.6, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v BAL2026 week 3
8v WAS2026 week 2
5v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
5v WAS2025 week 17
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3+ receptions-138consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 2.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BAL2026 week 3
3v WAS2026 week 2
5v NYG2026 week 1
0v WAS2025 week 17
2v LAC2025 week 16
Rushing yards23
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 61+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 74% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 60.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 88, median 83
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

98v BAL2026 week 3
30v WAS2026 week 2
41v NYG2026 week 1
54v WAS2025 week 17
34v LAC2025 week 16
Woody Marks RB · HOU 32+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Woody MarksRB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 31.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 46.8, median 40
The line
31.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v IND2026 week 3
8v CIN2026 week 2
42v BUF2026 week 1
17v NE2025 week 20
112v PIT2025 week 19
More players (1)
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 12+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

C.J. StroudQB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 11.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.9, median 0
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v IND2026 week 3
29v CIN2026 week 2
15v BUF2026 week 1
11v NE2025 week 20
0v PIT2025 week 19
Passing yards11
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 245+ passing yards-115consensus market price

C.J. StroudQB · HOUPassing yards

DataPitch 60% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 244.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 269.2, median 264
The line
244.5

His last 5, passing yards

153v IND2026 week 3
314v CIN2026 week 2
257v BUF2026 week 1
193v NE2025 week 20
244v PIT2025 week 19

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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