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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Week 4 · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Market line NO -3 · total 48.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 28 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Atlanta Falcons players.

Strongest of themKyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL3+ receptions-140consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards19
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 27+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 26.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.7, median 47
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v GB2026 week 3
15v CAR2026 week 2
0v PIT2026 week 1
58v NO2025 week 18
16v LA2025 week 17
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 15+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 14.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.8, median 26
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v GB2026 week 3
20v CAR2026 week 2
10v SEA2025 week 22
14v HOU2025 week 20
0v LAC2025 week 19
More players (7)
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 20+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 19.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27, median 21
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v GB2026 week 3
11v CAR2026 week 2
19v PIT2026 week 1
0v SF2025 week 19
40v WAS2025 week 18
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 17+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 16.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.5, median 18
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v LV2026 week 3
7v BAL2026 week 2
4v ATL2025 week 12
32v CAR2025 week 10
3v LA2025 week 9
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 37+ receiving yards-120consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 36.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.6, median 36
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v LV2026 week 3
66v BAL2026 week 2
54v DET2026 week 1
61v ATL2025 week 18
95v TEN2025 week 17
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 40+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 39.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.6, median 33
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v GB2026 week 3
9v CAR2026 week 2
90v PIT2026 week 1
10v NO2025 week 18
34v LA2025 week 17
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 46+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 45.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.3, median 37
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

39v LV2026 week 3
64v BAL2026 week 2
69v DET2026 week 1
69v CAR2025 week 15
40v TB2025 week 14
Chris Olave WR · NO 86+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 85.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 75.4, median 71
The line
85.5

His last 5, receiving yards

107v LV2026 week 3
86v BAL2026 week 2
182v DET2026 week 1
119v TEN2025 week 17
148v NYJ2025 week 16
Drake London WR · ATL 70+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 69.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57, median 51
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

194v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
29v PIT2026 week 1
78v NO2025 week 18
4v LA2025 week 17
Receptions19
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 3+ receptions-140consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 82% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 2.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.9, median 5
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v GB2026 week 3
1v CAR2026 week 2
0v PIT2026 week 1
6v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 2+ receptions+110consensus market price

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 64% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 1.5: -151consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 3
2v CAR2026 week 2
2v SEA2025 week 22
1v HOU2025 week 20
0v LAC2025 week 19
More players (7)
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceptions

DataPitch 51% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 3.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

8v LV2026 week 3
4v BAL2026 week 2
3v DET2026 week 1
3v ATL2025 week 18
4v TEN2025 week 17
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 2+ receptions-145consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 1.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v GB2026 week 3
2v CAR2026 week 2
1v PIT2026 week 1
0v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 4+ receptions+130consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceptions

DataPitch 32% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 3.5: -175consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 3
5v BAL2026 week 2
2v ATL2025 week 12
3v CAR2025 week 10
1v LA2025 week 9
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 5+ receptions-110consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 40% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 4.5: -119consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 3
3v CAR2026 week 2
8v PIT2026 week 1
3v NO2025 week 18
5v LA2025 week 17
Chris Olave WR · NO 8+ receptions+124consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 7.5: -164consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6, median 6
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

9v LV2026 week 3
8v BAL2026 week 2
10v DET2026 week 1
8v TEN2025 week 17
10v NYJ2025 week 16
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 5+ receptions+120consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 24% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 4.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2026 week 3
5v BAL2026 week 2
7v DET2026 week 1
5v CAR2025 week 15
3v TB2025 week 14
Drake London WR · ATL 5+ receptions-150consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 38% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 4.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

9v GB2026 week 3
4v CAR2026 week 2
2v PIT2026 week 1
4v NO2025 week 18
1v LA2025 week 17
Rushing yards7
Kendre Miller RB · NO 20+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Kendre MillerRB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 19.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 23.7, median 16
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v LV2026 week 3
30v DET2026 week 1
7v CHI2025 week 7
21v NE2025 week 6
41v NYG2025 week 5
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 41+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 40.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.5, median 35
The line
40.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v LV2026 week 3
15v BAL2026 week 2
11v ATL2025 week 12
83v CAR2025 week 10
14v LA2025 week 9
More players (5)
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 88+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 87.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 79.8, median 73
The line
87.5

His last 5, rushing yards

194v GB2026 week 3
72v CAR2026 week 2
83v PIT2026 week 1
33v NO2025 week 18
195v LA2025 week 17
Brian Robinson RB · ATL 33+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Brian RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 32.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.7, median 10
The line
32.5

His last 5, rushing yards

50v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
31v PIT2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 20
0v PHI2025 week 19
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 6+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.4, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-2v GB2026 week 3
9v CAR2025 week 11
-1v IND2025 week 10
19v NE2025 week 9
6v SF2025 week 7
Tyler Shough QB · NO 17+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler ShoughQB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 32%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.2, median 8
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v LV2026 week 3
23v BAL2026 week 2
8v DET2026 week 1
34v ATL2025 week 18
6v TEN2025 week 17
Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 53+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 25%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 37.6, median 31
The line
52.5

His last 5, rushing yards

57v LV2026 week 3
25v BAL2026 week 2
46v DET2026 week 1
67v BUF2025 week 19
32v TEN2025 week 18
Passing yards3
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 225+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 224.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 228.9, median 224
The line
224.5

His last 5, passing yards

258v GB2026 week 3
175v CAR2025 week 11
152v IND2025 week 10
217v NE2025 week 9
230v SF2025 week 7
Tyler Shough QB · NO 255+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 254.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 243.1, median 238
The line
254.5

His last 5, passing yards

233v LV2026 week 3
233v BAL2026 week 2
378v DET2026 week 1
232v ATL2025 week 18
320v TEN2025 week 17
More players (1)
Cooper Rush QB · ATL 185+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Cooper RushQB · ATLPassing yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 180.2, median 175
The line
184.5

His last 5, passing yards

83v CAR2026 week 2
118v PIT2026 week 1
72v LA2025 week 6
163v HOU2025 week 5
52v KC2025 week 4

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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