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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Market line WAS +7 · total 40.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 17 rows we price on this game clears our bar tonight.

Strongest of themMarcus MariotaQB · WAS173+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

17 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 22+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 21.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.1, median 41
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v ARI2026 week 2
35v NE2026 week 1
61v NE2025 week 22
36v LA2025 week 21
60v SF2025 week 20
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 35+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 34.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.8, median 36
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v DAL2026 week 2
55v PHI2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 22
17v DEN2025 week 21
40v HOU2025 week 20
More players (5)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 91+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 90.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 98.4, median 93
The line
90.5

His last 5, receiving yards

155v ARI2026 week 2
122v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
153v LA2025 week 21
19v SF2025 week 20
AJ Barner TE · SEA 22+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 21.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.8, median 19
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v ARI2026 week 2
13v NE2026 week 1
54v NE2025 week 22
13v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 43+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Terry McLaurinWR · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 42.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.6, median 37
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

50v DAL2026 week 2
14v PHI2026 week 1
57v PHI2025 week 18
63v DAL2025 week 17
53v PHI2025 week 16
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 27+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 26.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.9, median 21
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v ARI2026 week 2
4v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
51v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
Rachaad White RB · WAS 14+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 41%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.1, median 10
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v DAL2026 week 2
5v PHI2026 week 1
18v CAR2025 week 18
7v MIA2025 week 17
15v CAR2025 week 16
Receptions7
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions+120consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 73% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 2.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 22
4v LA2025 week 21
5v SF2025 week 20
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 7+ receptions-112consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 6.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.6, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

9v ARI2026 week 2
8v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
10v LA2025 week 21
3v SF2025 week 20
More players (5)
Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 4+ receptions-102consensus market price

Terry McLaurinWR · WASReceptions

DataPitch 38% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 3.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DAL2026 week 2
2v PHI2026 week 1
4v PHI2025 week 18
5v DAL2025 week 17
3v PHI2025 week 16
Rachaad White RB · WAS 3+ receptions+130consensus market price

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 2.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

6v DAL2026 week 2
2v PHI2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 18
2v MIA2025 week 17
2v CAR2025 week 16
AJ Barner TE · SEA 3+ receptions-125consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 40% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
2v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3+ receptions+106consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 2.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ARI2026 week 2
1v NE2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 22
1v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 4+ receptions-169consensus market price

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: +129consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DAL2026 week 2
4v PHI2026 week 1
3v SEA2025 week 22
5v DEN2025 week 21
4v HOU2025 week 20
Rushing yards2
Marcus Mariota QB · WAS 22+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Marcus MariotaQB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 33%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.9, median 12
The line
21.5

His last 5, rushing yards

3v DAL2026 week 2
-1v PHI2025 week 16
43v NYG2025 week 15
7v MIN2025 week 14
55v DEN2025 week 13
Rachaad White RB · WAS 21+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 28%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.5, median 9
The line
20.5

His last 5, rushing yards

43v DAL2026 week 2
22v PHI2026 week 1
23v CAR2025 week 18
10v MIA2025 week 17
45v CAR2025 week 16
Passing yards11
Marcus Mariota QB · WAS 173+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Marcus MariotaQB · WASPassing yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 172.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 208.3, median 203
The line
172.5

His last 5, passing yards

111v DAL2026 week 2
93v PHI2025 week 16
195v NYG2025 week 15
22v MIN2025 week 14
276v DEN2025 week 13

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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