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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Week 3 · Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · Market line CHI +4.5 · total 41.5

Our read on this game

6 of the 17 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themColston LovelandTE · CHI4+ receptions-108consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK. 3 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 6. Pending 6.

17 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards16
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 73+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 72.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 98.6, median 92
The line
72.5

His last 5, receiving yards

117v TEN2026 week 2
53v WAS2026 week 1
70v SF2025 week 19
52v WAS2025 week 18
25v BUF2025 week 17
DoubtfulSaquon Barkley RB · PHI 14+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 3 at Chicago

DataPitch 80% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 13.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.4, median 31
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v TEN2026 week 2
-3v WAS2026 week 1
25v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
More players (4)
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 26+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 94%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 84.2, median 78
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

3v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
56v LA2025 week 20
137v GB2025 week 19
91v DET2025 week 18
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 34+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 76%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 62.2, median 56
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v MIN2026 week 2
63v CAR2026 week 1
24v LA2025 week 20
42v GB2025 week 19
35v DET2025 week 18
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 27+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 74%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55, median 49
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v MIN2026 week 2
52v CAR2026 week 1
44v LA2025 week 20
44v GB2025 week 19
8v PHI2025 week 13
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 14+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 34%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.5, median 8
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v MIN2026 week 2
10v CAR2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 20
38v GB2025 week 19
8v DET2025 week 18
Receptions46
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 4+ receptions-108consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 82% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +30pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.2, median 6
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
4v LA2025 week 20
8v GB2025 week 19
10v DET2025 week 18
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6+ receptions-123consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceptions

DataPitch 66% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 5.5: -104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7.1, median 7
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

10v TEN2026 week 2
3v WAS2026 week 1
8v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
2v BUF2025 week 17
More players (4)
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 4+ receptions-108consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 63% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.6, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 2
5v CAR2026 week 1
3v LA2025 week 20
3v GB2025 week 19
3v DET2025 week 18
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3+ receptions-108consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 60% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
2v LA2025 week 20
2v GB2025 week 19
2v PHI2025 week 13
DoubtfulSaquon Barkley RB · PHI 3+ receptions+125consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 3 at Chicago

DataPitch 73% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 2.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TEN2026 week 2
1v WAS2026 week 1
3v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 3+ receptions+125consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 20% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v MIN2026 week 2
1v CAR2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 20
2v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
Rushing yards4
DoubtfulSaquon Barkley RB · PHI 72+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 3 at Chicago

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 71.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 82.6, median 76
The line
71.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v TEN2026 week 2
83v WAS2026 week 1
106v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
132v WAS2025 week 16
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 25+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIRushing yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 24.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 21.5, median 15
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v TEN2026 week 2
46v WAS2026 week 1
14v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
40v WAS2025 week 16
More players (2)
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 41+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 60%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 54.9, median 49
The line
40.5

His last 5, rushing yards

47v MIN2026 week 2
100v CAR2026 week 1
36v LA2025 week 20
27v GB2025 week 19
14v DET2025 week 18
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 65+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 53%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 72.2, median 66
The line
64.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v MIN2026 week 2
124v CAR2026 week 1
76v LA2025 week 20
54v GB2025 week 19
40v DET2025 week 18
Passing yards11
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 218+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIPassing yards

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 217.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 277.8, median 272
The line
217.5

His last 5, passing yards

252v TEN2026 week 2
182v WAS2026 week 1
167v SF2025 week 19
108v BUF2025 week 17
178v WAS2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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