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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Week 3 · Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · Market line CHI +3.5 · total 41.5

How our calls did

Final: Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27

Called before kickoff: 10. Won 4, lost 6.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Mon 28 Sept, 21:42 UK.

Every market we price

24 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards58
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 32+ receiving yardsLost31 yds-117consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 31 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 80% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 31.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 65.4, median 60
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

3v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
56v LA2025 week 20
137v GB2025 week 19
91v DET2025 week 18
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 13+ receiving yardsLost-2 yds-113consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, -2 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 70% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 12.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27, median 22
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v TEN2026 week 2
-3v WAS2026 week 1
25v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
More players (6)
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 9+ receiving yardsLost0 yds-113consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 8.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.1, median 16
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v MIN2026 week 2
35v CAR2026 week 1
31v LA2025 week 20
0v GB2025 week 19
16v DET2025 week 18
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 26+ receiving yardsWon44 yds-114consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 44 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 63% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 25.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.6, median 37
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v MIN2026 week 2
52v CAR2026 week 1
44v LA2025 week 20
44v GB2025 week 19
8v PHI2025 week 13
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 37+ receiving yardsWon61 yds-109consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 61 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 36.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.5, median 42
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v MIN2026 week 2
63v CAR2026 week 1
24v LA2025 week 20
42v GB2025 week 19
35v DET2025 week 18
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 9+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 8.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.1, median 9
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v MIN2026 week 2
24v CAR2026 week 1
36v LA2025 week 20
22v GB2025 week 19
15v DET2025 week 18
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 73+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 65 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 72.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 73.3, median 67
The line
72.5

His last 5, receiving yards

117v TEN2026 week 2
53v WAS2026 week 1
70v SF2025 week 19
52v WAS2025 week 18
25v BUF2025 week 17
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 14+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 13.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.8, median 5
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v MIN2026 week 2
10v CAR2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 20
38v GB2025 week 19
8v DET2025 week 18
Receptions28
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 4+ receptionsWon4 receptions+110consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 3.5: -139consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
4v LA2025 week 20
8v GB2025 week 19
10v DET2025 week 18
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 3+ receptionsLost1 reception+140consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 2.5: -182consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TEN2026 week 2
1v WAS2026 week 1
3v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
More players (6)
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 2+ receptions+120consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 1.5: -155consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
3v LA2025 week 20
0v GB2025 week 19
2v DET2025 week 18
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 2+ receptions+120consensus market price

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 1.5: -155consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
4v LA2025 week 20
1v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3+ receptions+112consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 2.5: -148consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
2v LA2025 week 20
2v GB2025 week 19
2v PHI2025 week 13
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 3.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 2
5v CAR2026 week 1
3v LA2025 week 20
3v GB2025 week 19
3v DET2025 week 18
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6+ receptions-117consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 5.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.2, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

10v TEN2026 week 2
3v WAS2026 week 1
8v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
2v BUF2025 week 17
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 3+ receptions+131consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 2.5: -169consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v MIN2026 week 2
1v CAR2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 20
2v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
Rushing yards26
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 73+ rushing yardsWon82 yds-113consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 82 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 72.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 102.7, median 96
The line
72.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v TEN2026 week 2
83v WAS2026 week 1
106v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
132v WAS2025 week 16
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 40+ rushing yardsLost31 yds-114consensus market price

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 31 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 39.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 55.3, median 49
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

47v MIN2026 week 2
100v CAR2026 week 1
36v LA2025 week 20
27v GB2025 week 19
14v DET2025 week 18
More players (4)
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 63+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 84 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 62.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 72.5, median 67
The line
62.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v MIN2026 week 2
124v CAR2026 week 1
76v LA2025 week 20
54v GB2025 week 19
40v DET2025 week 18
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 25+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 25 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 24.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 26.7, median 20
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v TEN2026 week 2
46v WAS2026 week 1
14v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
40v WAS2025 week 16
Tyson Bagent QB · CHI 20+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Tyson BagentQB · CHIRushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 18% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 19.5: -118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.9, median 3
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v MIN2026 week 2
0v CIN2025 week 9
7v DET2025 week 2
0v MIN2024 week 15
0v SF2024 week 14
Will Shipley RB · PHI 4+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-28 capture; an older price is not shown

Will ShipleyRB · PHIRushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.3, median 0
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

24v TEN2026 week 2
4v WAS2026 week 1
0v SF2025 week 19
2v WAS2025 week 18
2v BUF2025 week 17
Passing yards12
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 219+ passing yardsLost153 yds-110consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 153 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 218.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 279.3, median 274
The line
218.5

His last 5, passing yards

252v TEN2026 week 2
182v WAS2026 week 1
167v SF2025 week 19
108v BUF2025 week 17
178v WAS2025 week 16
Caleb Williams QB · CHI 275+ passing yards+108consensus market price

Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIPassing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 240.9, median 236
The line
274.5

His last 5, passing yards

118v MIN2026 week 2
261v CAR2026 week 1
257v LA2025 week 20
354v GB2025 week 19
207v DET2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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