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Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · Market line NO -3.5 · total 43.5

How our calls did

Final: Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 27 Sept, 17:00 UK.

Every market we price

29 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards11
Jack Bech WR · LV 15+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jack BechWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 14.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.7, median 17
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v LAC2026 week 2
23v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
43v HOU2025 week 16
17v PHI2025 week 15
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 14+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 13.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.6, median 14
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v BAL2026 week 2
4v ATL2025 week 12
32v CAR2025 week 10
3v LA2025 week 9
24v TB2025 week 8
More players (9)
Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 11+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 10.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.4, median 9
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v BAL2026 week 2
32v DET2026 week 1
49v BUF2025 week 19
6v TEN2025 week 18
16v IND2025 week 17
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 25+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 24.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.1, median 19
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v LAC2026 week 2
27v MIA2026 week 1
49v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 53 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 35.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.6, median 29
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v BAL2026 week 2
54v DET2026 week 1
61v ATL2025 week 18
95v TEN2025 week 17
89v NYJ2025 week 16
Michael Mayer TE · LV 22+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 21.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.3, median 16
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v LAC2026 week 2
32v MIA2026 week 1
47v KC2025 week 18
89v NYG2025 week 17
10v HOU2025 week 16
Tre Tucker WR · LV 43+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 43 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 42.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.4, median 25
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

119v LAC2026 week 2
27v MIA2026 week 1
30v KC2025 week 18
49v NYG2025 week 17
43v HOU2025 week 16
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 23+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 37 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 22.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.3, median 12
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v LAC2026 week 2
45v MIA2026 week 1
7v KC2025 week 18
13v NYG2025 week 17
60v HOU2025 week 16
Chris Olave WR · NO 77+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 107 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 76.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.9, median 53
The line
76.5

His last 5, receiving yards

86v BAL2026 week 2
182v DET2026 week 1
119v TEN2025 week 17
148v NYJ2025 week 16
85v CAR2025 week 15
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 49+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 39 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 48.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.8, median 28
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

64v BAL2026 week 2
69v DET2026 week 1
69v CAR2025 week 15
40v TB2025 week 14
93v MIA2025 week 13
Brock Bowers TE · LV 47+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 116 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 46.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.1, median 22
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v HOU2025 week 16
28v PHI2025 week 15
46v DEN2025 week 14
63v LAC2025 week 13
55v CLE2025 week 12
Receptions11
Jack Bech WR · LV 2+ receptions-115consensus market price

Jack BechWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 1.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 2
3v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
2v HOU2025 week 16
2v PHI2025 week 15
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 4+ receptions+102consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 3.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BAL2026 week 2
3v DET2026 week 1
3v ATL2025 week 18
4v TEN2025 week 17
8v NYJ2025 week 16
More players (9)
Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 2+ receptions-145consensus market price

Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NOReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 1.5: +112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BAL2026 week 2
7v DET2026 week 1
5v BUF2025 week 19
1v TEN2025 week 18
2v IND2025 week 17
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 3+ receptions-134consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BAL2026 week 2
2v ATL2025 week 12
3v CAR2025 week 10
1v LA2025 week 9
2v TB2025 week 8
Michael Mayer TE · LV 3+ receptions+100consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -137consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LAC2026 week 2
6v MIA2026 week 1
3v KC2025 week 18
9v NYG2025 week 17
1v HOU2025 week 16
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 3+ receptions+115consensus market price

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 2.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 2
3v MIA2026 week 1
3v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
Chris Olave WR · NO 7+ receptions+115consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceptions

How it ended: Won, 9 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 6.5: -152consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

8v BAL2026 week 2
10v DET2026 week 1
8v TEN2025 week 17
10v NYJ2025 week 16
6v CAR2025 week 15
Tre Tucker WR · LV 4+ receptions-105consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LAC2026 week 2
2v MIA2026 week 1
2v KC2025 week 18
5v NYG2025 week 17
4v HOU2025 week 16
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 5+ receptions+120consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 4.5: -157consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BAL2026 week 2
7v DET2026 week 1
5v CAR2025 week 15
3v TB2025 week 14
8v MIA2025 week 13
Brock Bowers TE · LV 5+ receptions-110consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 4.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v HOU2025 week 16
6v PHI2025 week 15
4v DEN2025 week 14
4v LAC2025 week 13
6v CLE2025 week 12
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 4+ receptions-147consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 3.5: +113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LAC2026 week 2
6v MIA2026 week 1
3v KC2025 week 18
2v NYG2025 week 17
1v HOU2025 week 16
Rushing yards15
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 28+ rushing yardsWon36 yds-109consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Won, 36 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 27.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 53.6, median 48
The line
27.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v BAL2026 week 2
11v ATL2025 week 12
83v CAR2025 week 10
14v LA2025 week 9
21v TB2025 week 8
Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 39+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Won, 57 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 38.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 43.4, median 37
The line
38.5

His last 5, rushing yards

25v BAL2026 week 2
46v DET2026 week 1
67v BUF2025 week 19
32v TEN2025 week 18
76v IND2025 week 17
More players (3)
Tyler Shough QB · NO 15+ rushing yards-118consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Won, 36 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 14.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.9, median 11
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v BAL2026 week 2
8v DET2026 week 1
34v ATL2025 week 18
6v TEN2025 week 17
8v NYJ2025 week 16
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 69+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 56 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 68.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 58.7, median 53
The line
68.5

His last 5, rushing yards

48v LAC2026 week 2
102v MIA2026 week 1
87v KC2025 week 18
60v NYG2025 week 17
128v HOU2025 week 16
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 2+ rushing yards-104consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 1.5: -122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.3, median 0
The line
1.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v LAC2026 week 2
-6v MIA2026 week 1
0v NO2025 week 18
1v LA2025 week 17
-3v ARI2025 week 16
Passing yards2
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 212+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 248 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 211.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 211.5, median 207
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

248v LAC2026 week 2
160v MIA2026 week 1
159v NO2025 week 18
126v LA2025 week 17
190v ARI2025 week 16
Tyler Shough QB · NO 253+ passing yards-108consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 255 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 252.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 220.2, median 216
The line
252.5

His last 5, passing yards

233v BAL2026 week 2
378v DET2026 week 1
232v ATL2025 week 18
320v TEN2025 week 17
290v NYJ2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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