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Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · Market line NO -3 · total 43.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 21 rows we price on this game clears our bar tonight.

Strongest of themJuwan JohnsonTE · NO4+ receptions+103consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.6, median 36
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v BAL2026 week 2
54v DET2026 week 1
61v ATL2025 week 18
95v TEN2025 week 17
89v NYJ2025 week 16
Chris Olave WR · NO 80+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 79.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 74.8, median 70
The line
79.5

His last 5, receiving yards

86v BAL2026 week 2
182v DET2026 week 1
119v TEN2025 week 17
148v NYJ2025 week 16
85v CAR2025 week 15
More players (6)
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 49+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 48.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42, median 37
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

64v BAL2026 week 2
69v DET2026 week 1
69v CAR2025 week 15
40v TB2025 week 14
93v MIA2025 week 13
Tre Tucker WR · LV 41+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 40.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.4, median 25
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

119v LAC2026 week 2
27v MIA2026 week 1
30v KC2025 week 18
49v NYG2025 week 17
43v HOU2025 week 16
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 22+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 21.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.3, median 12
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v LAC2026 week 2
45v MIA2026 week 1
7v KC2025 week 18
13v NYG2025 week 17
60v HOU2025 week 16
Brock Bowers TE · LV 50+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 49.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.1, median 22
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v HOU2025 week 16
28v PHI2025 week 15
46v DEN2025 week 14
63v LAC2025 week 13
55v CLE2025 week 12
Jack Bech WR · LV 16+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Jack BechWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 56%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.6, median 17
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v LAC2026 week 2
23v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
43v HOU2025 week 16
17v PHI2025 week 15
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 19+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 51%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.1, median 19
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v LAC2026 week 2
27v MIA2026 week 1
49v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
Receptions18
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 4+ receptions+103consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceptions

DataPitch 54% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 3.5: -137consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BAL2026 week 2
3v DET2026 week 1
3v ATL2025 week 18
4v TEN2025 week 17
8v NYJ2025 week 16
Chris Olave WR · NO 7+ receptions+115consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 6.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.2, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

8v BAL2026 week 2
10v DET2026 week 1
8v TEN2025 week 17
10v NYJ2025 week 16
6v CAR2025 week 15
More players (6)
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 2+ receptions-147consensus market price

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 2
3v MIA2026 week 1
3v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 5+ receptions+125consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 26% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 4.5: -166consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BAL2026 week 2
7v DET2026 week 1
5v CAR2025 week 15
3v TB2025 week 14
8v MIA2025 week 13
Tre Tucker WR · LV 4+ receptions-102consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LAC2026 week 2
2v MIA2026 week 1
2v KC2025 week 18
5v NYG2025 week 17
4v HOU2025 week 16
Brock Bowers TE · LV 5+ receptions+100consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceptions

DataPitch 19% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 4.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v HOU2025 week 16
6v PHI2025 week 15
4v DEN2025 week 14
4v LAC2025 week 13
6v CLE2025 week 12
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 4+ receptions-139consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceptions

DataPitch 19% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 3.5: +103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LAC2026 week 2
6v MIA2026 week 1
3v KC2025 week 18
2v NYG2025 week 17
1v HOU2025 week 16
Jack Bech WR · LV 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Jack BechWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 51%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 2
3v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
2v HOU2025 week 16
2v PHI2025 week 15
Rushing yards3
Tyler Shough QB · NO 16+ rushing yards-105consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 15.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.8, median 11
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v BAL2026 week 2
8v DET2026 week 1
34v ATL2025 week 18
6v TEN2025 week 17
8v NYJ2025 week 16
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 69+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 68.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 59, median 53
The line
68.5

His last 5, rushing yards

48v LAC2026 week 2
102v MIA2026 week 1
87v KC2025 week 18
60v NYG2025 week 17
128v HOU2025 week 16
More players (1)
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Kirk CousinsQB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 32%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.4, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v LAC2026 week 2
-6v MIA2026 week 1
0v NO2025 week 18
1v LA2025 week 17
-3v ARI2025 week 16
Passing yards2
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 212+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 211.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 211.2, median 205
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

248v LAC2026 week 2
160v MIA2026 week 1
159v NO2025 week 18
126v LA2025 week 17
190v ARI2025 week 16
Tyler Shough QB · NO 253+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 252.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 220.7, median 217
The line
252.5

His last 5, passing yards

233v BAL2026 week 2
378v DET2026 week 1
232v ATL2025 week 18
320v TEN2025 week 17
290v NYJ2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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