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Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET · Market line DEN +2.5 · total 43.5

How our calls did

Final: Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30

Called before kickoff: 4. Won 2, lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 27 Sept, 17:00 UK.

Every market we price

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards17
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 37+ receiving yardsWon46 yds-113consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 46 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 36.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 69, median 63
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v JAX2026 week 2
11v KC2026 week 1
17v NE2025 week 21
53v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 18+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 41 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 74% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 17.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.1, median 31
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v KC2026 week 1
22v NE2025 week 21
46v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
33v KC2025 week 17
More players (5)
DoubtfulColby Parkinson TE · LA 19+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - Did Not Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at Denver

DataPitch 68% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 18.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.3, median 29
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v NYG2026 week 2
6v SF2026 week 1
62v SEA2025 week 21
56v CHI2025 week 20
34v CAR2025 week 19
Kyren Williams RB · LA 13+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 70 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 12.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.3, median 13
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v NYG2026 week 2
24v SF2026 week 1
22v SEA2025 week 21
30v CHI2025 week 20
18v CAR2025 week 19
Davante Adams WR · LA 72+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 137 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 71.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.2, median 47
The line
71.5

His last 5, receiving yards

195v NYG2026 week 2
26v SF2026 week 1
89v SEA2025 week 21
24v CHI2025 week 20
72v CAR2025 week 19
Terrance Ferguson TE · LA 51+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Terrance FergusonTE · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 50.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22, median 17
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v NYG2026 week 2
0v SF2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
54v ATL2025 week 17
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 6+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 21 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 96%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.6, median 43
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
0v LAC2025 week 18
17v KC2025 week 17
66v JAX2025 week 16
Receptions17
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptionsLost3 receptions+100consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 68% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 21
4v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 2+ receptions+127consensus market price

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 84% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +40pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
0v LAC2025 week 18
4v KC2025 week 17
4v JAX2025 week 16
More players (5)
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 3+ receptions-139consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 75% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 2.5: +106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v KC2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 21
5v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
5v KC2025 week 17
DoubtfulColby Parkinson TE · LA 3+ receptions-125consensus market price

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - Did Not Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at Denver

DataPitch 62% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 2.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYG2026 week 2
1v SF2026 week 1
3v SEA2025 week 21
3v CHI2025 week 20
2v CAR2025 week 19
Kyren Williams RB · LA 3+ receptions+130consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 2.5: -169consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
2v SEA2025 week 21
4v CHI2025 week 20
2v CAR2025 week 19
Davante Adams WR · LA 6+ receptions-124consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 18% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 5.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

8v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 21
2v CHI2025 week 20
5v CAR2025 week 19
Terrance Ferguson TE · LA 4+ receptions-175consensus market price

Terrance FergusonTE · LAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 8% · Market 64%

Against this price: Gap -56pp

Under 3.5: +129consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v NYG2026 week 2
0v SF2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 21
1v CHI2025 week 20
2v ATL2025 week 17
Rushing yards14
Kyren Williams RB · LA 55+ rushing yardsWon88 yds-113consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Won, 88 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 54.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 73.9, median 69
The line
54.5

His last 5, rushing yards

85v NYG2026 week 2
41v SF2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 21
87v CHI2025 week 20
57v CAR2025 week 19
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 20+ rushing yards-118consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 80% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 19.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 43.7, median 39
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v KC2026 week 1
37v NE2025 week 21
20v BUF2025 week 20
28v LAC2025 week 18
43v KC2025 week 17
More players (2)
Blake Corum RB · LA 47+ rushing yards-118consensus market price

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 46.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 52.5, median 46
The line
46.5

His last 5, rushing yards

79v NYG2026 week 2
54v SF2026 week 1
55v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
45v CAR2025 week 19
Bo Nix QB · DEN 17+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 16.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.3, median 15
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
29v BUF2025 week 20
49v LAC2025 week 18
42v KC2025 week 17
Passing yards11
Bo Nix QB · DEN 212+ passing yardsLost186 yds-112consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 186 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 211.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 237.3, median 233
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

288v JAX2026 week 2
115v KC2026 week 1
279v BUF2025 week 20
124v LAC2025 week 18
175v KC2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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