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Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET · Market line DEN +2.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

5 of the 17 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and 4 of them are Denver Broncos players.

Strongest of themCourtland SuttonWR · DEN37+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK. 1 row on this game carries a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 5. Pending 5.

17 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards16
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 37+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 36.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 60.4, median 54
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v JAX2026 week 2
11v KC2026 week 1
17v NE2025 week 21
53v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 7+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 66%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 14
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v KC2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 20
24v KC2025 week 17
14v JAX2025 week 16
17v LV2025 week 14
More players (4)
Kyren Williams RB · LA 12+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 55%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.3, median 13
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v NYG2026 week 2
24v SF2026 week 1
22v SEA2025 week 21
30v CHI2025 week 20
18v CAR2025 week 19
Colby Parkinson TE · LA 28+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 53%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.3, median 29
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v NYG2026 week 2
6v SF2026 week 1
62v SEA2025 week 21
56v CHI2025 week 20
34v CAR2025 week 19
Davante Adams WR · LA 66+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.3, median 47
The line
65.5

His last 5, receiving yards

195v NYG2026 week 2
26v SF2026 week 1
89v SEA2025 week 21
24v CHI2025 week 20
72v CAR2025 week 19
Terrance Ferguson TE · LA 43+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Terrance FergusonTE · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 18%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22, median 17
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v NYG2026 week 2
0v SF2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
54v ATL2025 week 17
Receptions26
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 2+ receptions+172consensus market price

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v KC2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 20
2v KC2025 week 17
2v JAX2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 14
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptions-105consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 3.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 21
4v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
More players (4)
Colby Parkinson TE · LA 3+ receptions-147consensus market price

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceptions

DataPitch 62% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYG2026 week 2
1v SF2026 week 1
3v SEA2025 week 21
3v CHI2025 week 20
2v CAR2025 week 19
Kyren Williams RB · LA 3+ receptions+150consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 2.5: -156consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
2v SEA2025 week 21
4v CHI2025 week 20
2v CAR2025 week 19
Davante Adams WR · LA 6+ receptions+122consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceptions

DataPitch 18% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

8v NYG2026 week 2
3v SF2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 21
2v CHI2025 week 20
5v CAR2025 week 19
Terrance Ferguson TE · LA 4+ receptions-135consensus market price

Terrance FergusonTE · LAReceptions

DataPitch 8% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -49pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v NYG2026 week 2
0v SF2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 21
1v CHI2025 week 20
2v ATL2025 week 17
Rushing yards14
Kyren Williams RB · LA 52+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 51.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 74, median 69
The line
51.5

His last 5, rushing yards

85v NYG2026 week 2
41v SF2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 21
87v CHI2025 week 20
57v CAR2025 week 19
Blake Corum RB · LA 47+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 46.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 52.6, median 46
The line
46.5

His last 5, rushing yards

79v NYG2026 week 2
54v SF2026 week 1
55v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
45v CAR2025 week 19
More players (2)
Bo Nix QB · DEN 17+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 16.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.7, median 7
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
29v BUF2025 week 20
49v LAC2025 week 18
42v KC2025 week 17
DoubtfulJ.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 55+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 3 vs. L.A. Rams

DataPitch 25%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 39, median 32
The line
54.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v JAX2026 week 2
36v KC2026 week 1
77v LV2025 week 10
61v HOU2025 week 9
111v DAL2025 week 8
Passing yards11
Bo Nix QB · DEN 212+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 211.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 237.7, median 232
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

288v JAX2026 week 2
115v KC2026 week 1
279v BUF2025 week 20
124v LAC2025 week 18
175v KC2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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