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Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Market line BUF -7 · total 50.5

How our calls did

Final: Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24

Called before kickoff: 7. Won 1, lost 6.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 27 Sept, 17:00 UK.

Every market we price

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards410
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 12+ receiving yardsLost0 yds-113consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 11.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.4, median 21
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
10v DAL2025 week 16
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 37+ receiving yardsWon40 yds-114consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 40 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 36.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.7, median 52.5
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v LV2026 week 2
17v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
98v HOU2025 week 17
104v DAL2025 week 16
More players (8)
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 10+ receiving yardsLost5 yds-113consensus market price

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 9.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.2, median 16
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v DET2026 week 2
7v HOU2026 week 1
32v DEN2025 week 20
30v JAX2025 week 19
24v NYJ2025 week 18
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 43+ receiving yardsLost6 yds-113consensus market price

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 42.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.3, median 49
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

38v DET2026 week 2
50v HOU2026 week 1
75v DEN2025 week 20
82v JAX2025 week 19
35v PHI2025 week 17
Jackson Hawes TE · BUF 25+ receiving yards+750consensus market price

Jackson HawesTE · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 12%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.8, median 10
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
26v CLE2025 week 16
9v NE2025 week 15
3v CIN2025 week 14
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 32+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 76 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 31.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.1, median 39
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v LV2026 week 2
20v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
28v DEN2025 week 18
8v HOU2025 week 17
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 38+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 37.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.7, median 38
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v LV2026 week 2
32v ARI2026 week 1
30v NE2025 week 19
23v DEN2025 week 18
32v HOU2025 week 17
James Cook III RB · BUF 12+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 11.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.6, median 8
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v DET2026 week 2
12v HOU2026 week 1
24v DEN2025 week 20
5v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 60+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 66 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 59.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47, median 41
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v LV2026 week 2
82v ARI2026 week 1
32v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
43v DAL2025 week 16
DoubtfulDJ Moore WR · BUF 50+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 67 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - AC Joint - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 vs. L.A. Chargers

DataPitch 20% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 49.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.1, median 24
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v DET2026 week 2
100v HOU2026 week 1
52v LA2025 week 20
64v GB2025 week 19
11v DET2025 week 18
Receptions311
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 2+ receptionsLost0 receptions-141consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 77% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 1.5: +112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
8v HOU2025 week 17
1v DAL2025 week 16
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 4+ receptionsLost3 receptions+135consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 3.5: -179consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 2
2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
5v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
More players (9)
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 2+ receptionsLost1 reception+132consensus market price

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 1.5: -174consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
3v DEN2025 week 20
3v JAX2025 week 19
2v NYJ2025 week 18
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 3+ receptions-140consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 2.5: +101consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 2
3v ARI2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
1v HOU2025 week 17
Joshua Palmer WR · BUF 2+ receptions+105consensus market price

Joshua PalmerWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 1.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
1v NYJ2025 week 18
1v PHI2025 week 17
1v CLE2025 week 16
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 4+ receptions-155consensus market price

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 3.5: +122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DET2026 week 2
4v HOU2026 week 1
7v DEN2025 week 20
12v JAX2025 week 19
6v PHI2025 week 17
DoubtfulKeon Coleman WR · BUF 2+ receptions-125consensus market price

Keon ColemanWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 vs. L.A. Chargers

DataPitch 49% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 1.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

6v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
1v DEN2025 week 20
1v JAX2025 week 19
2v NYJ2025 week 18
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 4+ receptions+105consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 3.5: -138consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LV2026 week 2
2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
3v HOU2025 week 17
James Cook III RB · BUF 2+ receptions-152consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 1.5: +118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v DET2026 week 2
3v HOU2026 week 1
2v DEN2025 week 20
2v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 5+ receptions-140consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 4.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2026 week 2
5v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
1v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
DoubtfulDJ Moore WR · BUF 4+ receptions-140consensus market price

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - AC Joint - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 vs. L.A. Chargers

DataPitch 20% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 3.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v DET2026 week 2
5v HOU2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 20
6v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
Rushing yards5
James Cook III RB · BUF 81+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 154 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 80.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 95.5, median 89
The line
80.5

His last 5, rushing yards

135v DET2026 week 2
57v HOU2026 week 1
117v DEN2025 week 20
46v JAX2025 week 19
15v NYJ2025 week 18
Josh Allen QB · BUF 35+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 34.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.2, median 27
The line
34.5

His last 5, rushing yards

69v DET2026 week 2
23v HOU2026 week 1
66v DEN2025 week 20
33v JAX2025 week 19
27v PHI2025 week 17
More players (3)
Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 15+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Keaton MitchellRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 52 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 14.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.5, median 3
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

24v LV2026 week 2
9v ARI2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
31v GB2025 week 17
13v NE2025 week 16
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 20+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 19.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.1, median 5
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v LV2026 week 2
29v ARI2026 week 1
57v NE2025 week 19
37v HOU2025 week 17
42v DAL2025 week 16
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 59+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 56 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 58.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 27.1, median 19
The line
58.5

His last 5, rushing yards

94v LV2026 week 2
43v ARI2026 week 1
-1v NE2025 week 19
29v HOU2025 week 17
85v DAL2025 week 16
Passing yards2
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 225+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 226 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 224.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 209.3, median 204
The line
224.5

His last 5, passing yards

183v LV2026 week 2
187v ARI2026 week 1
120v NE2025 week 19
201v HOU2025 week 17
300v DAL2025 week 16
Josh Allen QB · BUF 240+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 204 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 239.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 189.7, median 184
The line
239.5

His last 5, passing yards

243v DET2026 week 2
323v HOU2026 week 1
266v DEN2025 week 20
261v JAX2025 week 19
211v PHI2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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