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Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Market line BUF -7 · total 50.5

Our read on this game

5 of the 25 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and 4 of them are Los Angeles Chargers players.

Strongest of themOmarion HamptonRB · LAC12+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 5. Pending 5.

25 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards210
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 12+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 11.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.4, median 21
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
10v DAL2025 week 16
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.7, median 52.5
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v LV2026 week 2
17v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
98v HOU2025 week 17
104v DAL2025 week 16
More players (8)
Jackson Hawes TE · BUF 25+ receiving yards+750consensus market price

Jackson HawesTE · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 22% · Market 12%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.8, median 10
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
26v CLE2025 week 16
9v NE2025 week 15
3v CIN2025 week 14
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 32+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.1, median 39
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v LV2026 week 2
20v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
28v DEN2025 week 18
8v HOU2025 week 17
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.7, median 38
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v LV2026 week 2
32v ARI2026 week 1
30v NE2025 week 19
23v DEN2025 week 18
32v HOU2025 week 17
James Cook III RB · BUF 11+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 10.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.6, median 8
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v DET2026 week 2
12v HOU2026 week 1
24v DEN2025 week 20
5v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 41+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 40.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.7, median 34
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

38v DET2026 week 2
50v HOU2026 week 1
75v DEN2025 week 20
82v JAX2025 week 19
35v PHI2025 week 17
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 55+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 54.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47, median 41
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v LV2026 week 2
82v ARI2026 week 1
32v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
43v DAL2025 week 16
DoubtfulDJ Moore WR · BUF 50+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - AC Joint - Questionable for Week 3 vs. L.A. Chargers

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 49.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.1, median 24
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v DET2026 week 2
100v HOU2026 week 1
52v LA2025 week 20
64v GB2025 week 19
11v DET2025 week 18
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 12+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 60%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.2, median 16
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v DET2026 week 2
7v HOU2026 week 1
32v DEN2025 week 20
30v JAX2025 week 19
24v NYJ2025 week 18
Receptions39
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 2+ receptions-148consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

DataPitch 77% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 1.5: +113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LV2026 week 2
0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
8v HOU2025 week 17
1v DAL2025 week 16
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 4+ receptions+133consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceptions

DataPitch 58% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 3.5: -180consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 2
2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
5v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
More players (7)
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 2+ receptions+115consensus market price

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
3v DEN2025 week 20
3v JAX2025 week 19
2v NYJ2025 week 18
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 3+ receptions-143consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceptions

DataPitch 62% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 2.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 2
3v ARI2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
1v HOU2025 week 17
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 4+ receptions-155consensus market price

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 3.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DET2026 week 2
4v HOU2026 week 1
7v DEN2025 week 20
12v JAX2025 week 19
6v PHI2025 week 17
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 4+ receptions+105consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 3.5: -136consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LV2026 week 2
2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
3v HOU2025 week 17
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 5+ receptions+102consensus market price

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 4.5: -128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2026 week 2
5v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
1v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
James Cook III RB · BUF 2+ receptions-155consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 1.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v DET2026 week 2
3v HOU2026 week 1
2v DEN2025 week 20
2v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
DoubtfulDJ Moore WR · BUF 4+ receptions-140consensus market price

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - AC Joint - Questionable for Week 3 vs. L.A. Chargers

DataPitch 20% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 3.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v DET2026 week 2
5v HOU2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 20
6v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
Rushing yards4
James Cook III RB · BUF 80+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 79.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 84.8, median 78
The line
79.5

His last 5, rushing yards

135v DET2026 week 2
57v HOU2026 week 1
117v DEN2025 week 20
46v JAX2025 week 19
15v NYJ2025 week 18
Josh Allen QB · BUF 33+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 32.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.2, median 27
The line
32.5

His last 5, rushing yards

69v DET2026 week 2
23v HOU2026 week 1
66v DEN2025 week 20
33v JAX2025 week 19
27v PHI2025 week 17
More players (2)
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 20+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 19.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.1, median 5
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v LV2026 week 2
29v ARI2026 week 1
57v NE2025 week 19
37v HOU2025 week 17
42v DAL2025 week 16
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 61+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 11% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Under 60.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 27.1, median 19
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

94v LV2026 week 2
43v ARI2026 week 1
-1v NE2025 week 19
29v HOU2025 week 17
85v DAL2025 week 16
Passing yards2
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 223+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 222.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 209.3, median 204
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

183v LV2026 week 2
187v ARI2026 week 1
120v NE2025 week 19
201v HOU2025 week 17
300v DAL2025 week 16
Josh Allen QB · BUF 239+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 238.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 189.7, median 184
The line
238.5

His last 5, passing yards

243v DET2026 week 2
323v HOU2026 week 1
266v DEN2025 week 20
261v JAX2025 week 19
211v PHI2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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