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Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · Market line DAL +3.5 · total 53.5

How our calls did

Final: Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31

Called before kickoff: 4. Won 2, lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 27 Sept, 17:00 UK.

Every market we price

25 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards29
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 28+ receiving yardsLost23 yds-117consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 23 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 27.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.3, median 38
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v WAS2026 week 2
6v NYG2026 week 1
5v NYG2025 week 18
6v WAS2025 week 17
19v LAC2025 week 16
George Pickens WR · DAL 65+ receiving yardsWon82 yds-115consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 82 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 64.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 85.6, median 79
The line
64.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v WAS2026 week 2
28v NYG2026 week 1
9v NYG2025 week 18
78v WAS2025 week 17
130v LAC2025 week 16
More players (7)
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 30+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 81% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 29.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 63.1, median 57
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v WAS2026 week 2
22v NYG2026 week 1
68v NYG2025 week 18
18v LAC2025 week 16
40v MIN2025 week 15
Chris Moore WR · BAL 18+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Chris MooreWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 17.5: -118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.1, median 29
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v NO2026 week 2
53v IND2026 week 1
15v DAL2025 week 17
0v PHI2025 week 16
28v MIA2025 week 11
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 15+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 14.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.9, median 14
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v WAS2026 week 2
31v NYG2026 week 1
0v WAS2025 week 17
9v LAC2025 week 16
0v MIN2025 week 15
DoubtfulZay Flowers WR · BAL 60+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 84 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at Dallas

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 59.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.5, median 49
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

150v IND2026 week 1
138v PIT2025 week 18
30v GB2025 week 17
84v NE2025 week 16
68v CIN2025 week 15
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 11+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 10.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.7, median 5
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v NO2026 week 2
19v IND2026 week 1
0v PIT2025 week 18
0v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 40+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 24 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 39.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.9, median 20
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v NO2026 week 2
49v IND2026 week 1
14v PIT2025 week 18
28v GB2025 week 17
21v NE2025 week 16
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 48+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 37 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 47.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.8, median 15
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

88v NO2026 week 2
0v IND2026 week 1
7v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
23v PIT2025 week 14
Receptions9
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 4+ receptions+119consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 3.5: -156consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.9, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v WAS2026 week 2
2v NYG2026 week 1
5v NYG2025 week 18
2v LAC2025 week 16
4v MIN2025 week 15
Chris Moore WR · BAL 2+ receptions+124consensus market price

Chris MooreWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 60% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 1.5: -171consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NO2026 week 2
1v IND2026 week 1
1v DAL2025 week 17
0v PHI2025 week 16
2v MIA2025 week 11
More players (7)
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 4+ receptions-118consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 3.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v WAS2026 week 2
2v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
1v WAS2025 week 17
3v LAC2025 week 16
George Pickens WR · DAL 6+ receptions+110consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 5.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.6, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v WAS2026 week 2
3v NYG2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 18
4v WAS2025 week 17
7v LAC2025 week 16
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 2+ receptions+116consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 1.5: -151consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NO2026 week 2
1v IND2026 week 1
0v PIT2025 week 18
0v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3+ receptions-139consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 2.5: +104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v WAS2026 week 2
5v NYG2026 week 1
0v WAS2025 week 17
2v LAC2025 week 16
0v MIN2025 week 15
DoubtfulZay Flowers WR · BAL 6+ receptions+115consensus market price

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at Dallas

DataPitch 22% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 5.5: -157consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v IND2026 week 1
4v PIT2025 week 18
4v GB2025 week 17
7v NE2025 week 16
3v CIN2025 week 15
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 5+ receptions+115consensus market price

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 4.5: -145consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v NO2026 week 2
4v IND2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
4v GB2025 week 17
2v NE2025 week 16
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 4+ receptions-103consensus market price

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 9% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 3.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v NO2026 week 2
0v IND2026 week 1
1v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
2v PIT2025 week 14
Rushing yards25
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 55+ rushing yardsWon98 yds-112consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 98 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 54.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 84.8, median 79
The line
54.5

His last 5, rushing yards

30v WAS2026 week 2
41v NYG2026 week 1
54v WAS2025 week 17
34v LAC2025 week 16
91v MIN2025 week 15
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 91+ rushing yardsLost89 yds-113consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 89 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 90.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 121.1, median 114
The line
90.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v NO2026 week 2
144v IND2026 week 1
126v PIT2025 week 18
216v GB2025 week 17
128v NE2025 week 16
More players (3)
Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 41+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Lamar JacksonQB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 50 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 40.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.2, median 23
The line
40.5

His last 5, rushing yards

34v NO2026 week 2
40v IND2026 week 1
9v PIT2025 week 18
7v NE2025 week 16
26v CIN2025 week 15
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 13+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 12.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.5, median 5
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

26v WAS2026 week 2
14v NYG2026 week 1
-1v NYG2025 week 18
24v WAS2025 week 17
14v LAC2025 week 16
Justice Hill RB · BAL 14+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Justice HillRB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 33 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 13.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.1, median 3
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v NO2026 week 2
18v IND2026 week 1
0v NYJ2025 week 12
1v MIN2025 week 10
2v MIA2025 week 9
Passing yards2
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 262+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 276 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 261.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 270.1, median 265
The line
261.5

His last 5, passing yards

266v WAS2026 week 2
175v NYG2026 week 1
70v NYG2025 week 18
269v WAS2025 week 17
238v LAC2025 week 16
Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 240+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Lamar JacksonQB · BALPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 186 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 239.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 226.1, median 219
The line
239.5

His last 5, passing yards

204v NO2026 week 2
304v IND2026 week 1
222v PIT2025 week 18
101v NE2025 week 16
128v CIN2025 week 15

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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