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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · Market line DAL -3.5 · total 50.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 12 rows we price on this game clears our bar tonight.

Strongest of themJavonte WilliamsRB · DAL73+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 15 Sept, 14:25 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

12 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 51+ receiving yards-105consensus market price

Terry McLaurinWR · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 50.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.2, median 41
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v PHI2025 week 18
63v DAL2025 week 17
53v PHI2025 week 16
69v NYG2025 week 15
41v MIN2025 week 14
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 55+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 54.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.2, median 36
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v SEA2025 week 22
17v DEN2025 week 21
40v HOU2025 week 20
16v LAC2025 week 19
43v MIA2025 week 18
More players (5)
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 30+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 66%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.1, median 43
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

68v NYG2025 week 18
18v LAC2025 week 16
40v MIN2025 week 15
115v DET2025 week 14
34v KC2025 week 13
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 28+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.6, median 25
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v NYG2025 week 18
6v WAS2025 week 17
19v LAC2025 week 16
16v MIN2025 week 15
58v DET2025 week 14
George Pickens WR · DAL 67+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 67, median 60
The line
66.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v NYG2025 week 18
78v WAS2025 week 17
130v LAC2025 week 16
33v MIN2025 week 15
37v DET2025 week 14
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 12+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.9, median 8
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v WAS2025 week 17
9v LAC2025 week 16
0v MIN2025 week 15
0v DET2025 week 14
21v KC2025 week 13
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 71+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 34%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.7, median 53
The line
70.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v NYG2025 week 18
46v WAS2025 week 17
51v LAC2025 week 16
111v MIN2025 week 15
121v DET2025 week 14
Rushing yards13
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 73+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 72% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 72.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 103.7, median 98
The line
72.5

His last 5, rushing yards

54v WAS2025 week 17
34v LAC2025 week 16
91v MIN2025 week 15
67v DET2025 week 14
59v KC2025 week 13
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 9+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.7, median 6
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v NYG2025 week 18
24v WAS2025 week 17
14v LAC2025 week 16
2v MIN2025 week 15
14v DET2025 week 14
More players (1)
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 35+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Jayden DanielsQB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 34%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 30.4, median 22
The line
34.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v MIN2025 week 14
51v SEA2025 week 9
35v DAL2025 week 7
52v CHI2025 week 6
39v LAC2025 week 5
Passing yards2
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 267+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

DataPitch 48%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 267.7, median 262
The line
266.5

His last 5, passing yards

70v NYG2025 week 18
269v WAS2025 week 17
238v LAC2025 week 16
285v MIN2025 week 15
328v DET2025 week 14
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 216+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Jayden DanielsQB · WASPassing yards

DataPitch 35%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 195.5, median 190
The line
215.5

His last 5, passing yards

77v MIN2025 week 14
133v SEA2025 week 9
151v DAL2025 week 7
205v CHI2025 week 6
226v LAC2025 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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