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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Market line CHI -5.5 · total 49.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 17 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Chicago Bears players.

Strongest of themKyle MonangaiRB · CHI1+ receptions-165consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 15 Sept, 14:25 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

17 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Luther Burden WR · CHI 46+ receiving yards-135consensus market price

Luther BurdenWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 45.5: +118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 50.2, median 44
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v LA2025 week 20
42v GB2025 week 19
35v DET2025 week 18
138v SF2025 week 17
84v CLE2025 week 15
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 6+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 64%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.9, median 10
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

36v LA2025 week 20
22v GB2025 week 19
15v DET2025 week 18
9v SF2025 week 17
43v GB2025 week 16
More players (5)
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 53+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 59%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 67.3, median 61
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

56v LA2025 week 20
137v GB2025 week 19
91v DET2025 week 18
94v SF2025 week 17
30v GB2025 week 16
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 16+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 52%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.7, median 16
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v LA2025 week 20
0v GB2025 week 19
16v DET2025 week 18
16v SF2025 week 17
14v GB2025 week 16
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 53+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 40%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.7, median 43
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v LA2025 week 20
44v GB2025 week 19
8v PHI2025 week 13
53v PIT2025 week 12
41v MIN2025 week 11
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 10+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 36%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.8, median 5
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LA2025 week 20
38v GB2025 week 19
8v DET2025 week 18
25v SF2025 week 17
12v GB2025 week 16
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 75+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Justin JeffersonWR · MINReceiving yards

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.6, median 53
The line
74.5

His last 5, receiving yards

101v GB2025 week 18
30v DET2025 week 17
85v NYG2025 week 16
22v DAL2025 week 15
11v WAS2025 week 14
Receptions25
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 1+ receptions-165consensus market price

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 74% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 0.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LA2025 week 20
1v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
3v SF2025 week 17
3v GB2025 week 16
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 5+ receptions+132consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 55% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 4.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.2, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LA2025 week 20
8v GB2025 week 19
10v DET2025 week 18
6v SF2025 week 17
3v GB2025 week 16
More players (3)
Luther Burden WR · CHI 5+ receptions+118consensus market price

Luther BurdenWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 4.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LA2025 week 20
3v GB2025 week 19
3v DET2025 week 18
8v SF2025 week 17
6v CLE2025 week 15
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 3+ receptions+152consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LA2025 week 20
0v GB2025 week 19
2v DET2025 week 18
2v SF2025 week 17
2v GB2025 week 16
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 3+ receptions+152consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 14% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v LA2025 week 20
2v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
2v SF2025 week 17
2v GB2025 week 16
Rushing yards14
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 36+ rushing yards-122consensus market price

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 66% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 35.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 53.9, median 48
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v LA2025 week 20
27v GB2025 week 19
14v DET2025 week 18
38v SF2025 week 17
50v GB2025 week 16
Caleb Williams QB · CHI 27+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 26.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.6, median 7
The line
26.5

His last 5, rushing yards

40v LA2025 week 20
20v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
18v SF2025 week 17
30v GB2025 week 16
More players (2)
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 67+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.6, median 66
The line
66.5

His last 5, rushing yards

76v LA2025 week 20
54v GB2025 week 19
40v DET2025 week 18
54v SF2025 week 17
58v GB2025 week 16
Luther Burden WR · CHI 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Luther BurdenWR · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 28%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.1, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v LA2025 week 20
-4v GB2025 week 19
10v DET2025 week 18
0v SF2025 week 17
0v CLE2025 week 15
Passing yards1
Caleb Williams QB · CHI 230+ passing yards-116consensus market price

Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIPassing yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 229.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 214.7, median 209
The line
229.5

His last 5, passing yards

257v LA2025 week 20
354v GB2025 week 19
207v DET2025 week 18
330v SF2025 week 17
250v GB2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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