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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · Market line LAC -7 · total 43.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themOmarion HamptonRB · LAC16+ receiving yards-105consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 15 Sept, 14:25 UK.

Every market we price

8 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards2
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 16+ receiving yards-105consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 15.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.3, median 16
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
10v DAL2025 week 16
4v KC2025 week 15
11v PHI2025 week 14
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 21+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 34%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.9, median 13
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v KC2025 week 18
13v NYG2025 week 17
60v HOU2025 week 16
7v PHI2025 week 15
8v DEN2025 week 14
Receptions1
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 2+ receptions-286consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

DataPitch 67% · Market 74%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v NE2025 week 19
8v HOU2025 week 17
1v DAL2025 week 16
1v KC2025 week 15
2v PHI2025 week 14
Rushing yards3
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 25+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 15% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 24.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11, median 4
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

57v NE2025 week 19
37v HOU2025 week 17
42v DAL2025 week 16
0v KC2025 week 15
66v PHI2025 week 14
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 66+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 52.8, median 47
The line
65.5

His last 5, rushing yards

87v KC2025 week 18
60v NYG2025 week 17
128v HOU2025 week 16
35v PHI2025 week 15
30v DEN2025 week 14
More players (1)
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 62+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 10%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.7, median 18
The line
61.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v NE2025 week 19
29v HOU2025 week 17
85v DAL2025 week 16
61v KC2025 week 15
56v PHI2025 week 14
Passing yards2
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 199+ passing yards-110consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 198.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 203.2, median 197
The line
198.5

His last 5, passing yards

159v NO2025 week 18
126v LA2025 week 17
190v ARI2025 week 16
365v TB2025 week 15
154v SEA2025 week 14
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 214+ passing yards-120consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 213.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 164.2, median 158
The line
213.5

His last 5, passing yards

120v NE2025 week 19
201v HOU2025 week 17
300v DAL2025 week 16
201v KC2025 week 15
106v PHI2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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