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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · Market line LAC -7 · total 43.5

How our calls did

Final: Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 20 Sept, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

27 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards110
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 11+ receiving yardsWon21 yds-115consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 21 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 10.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.9, median 14
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
10v DAL2025 week 16
4v KC2025 week 15
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 18+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 17.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.9, median 24
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v ARI2026 week 1
30v NE2025 week 19
23v DEN2025 week 18
32v HOU2025 week 17
7v DAL2025 week 16
More players (8)
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 33+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 53 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 32.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31, median 25
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
28v DEN2025 week 18
8v HOU2025 week 17
54v DAL2025 week 16
David Njoku TE · LAC 25+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

David NjokuTE · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 24.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.9, median 18
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v ARI2026 week 1
1v TEN2025 week 14
4v SF2025 week 13
7v BAL2025 week 11
21v NYJ2025 week 10
Tre Tucker WR · LV 37+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 119 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 36.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.6, median 23
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v MIA2026 week 1
30v KC2025 week 18
49v NYG2025 week 17
43v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 51+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 50.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.5, median 33
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v ARI2026 week 1
20v NE2025 week 19
98v HOU2025 week 17
104v DAL2025 week 16
8v PHI2025 week 14
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 33+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 32.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.7, median 16
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v MIA2026 week 1
49v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
47v DAL2025 week 15
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 27+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 26.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.9, median 11
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

45v MIA2026 week 1
7v KC2025 week 18
13v NYG2025 week 17
60v HOU2025 week 16
7v PHI2025 week 15

His other lines in this market

23+ receiving yardsDataPitch 26% · Market 54%-115book price at this line
Michael Mayer TE · LV 45+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 44.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.8, median 15
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v MIA2026 week 1
47v KC2025 week 18
89v NYG2025 week 17
10v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
Jack Bech WR · LV 25+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-20 capture; an older price is not shown

Jack BechWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 25 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.2, median 17
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
43v HOU2025 week 16
17v PHI2025 week 15
50v DEN2025 week 14
Receptions10
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 2+ receptions-150consensus market price

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 60% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 1.5: +119consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
3v HOU2025 week 17
1v DAL2025 week 16
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 3+ receptions+143consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 2.5: -186consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v ARI2026 week 1
0v NE2025 week 19
8v HOU2025 week 17
1v DAL2025 week 16
1v KC2025 week 15
More players (8)
David Njoku TE · LAC 3+ receptions-146consensus market price

David NjokuTE · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 2.5: +112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v ARI2026 week 1
1v TEN2025 week 14
2v SF2025 week 13
1v BAL2025 week 11
2v NYJ2025 week 10
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 4+ receptions+135consensus market price

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: -180consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ARI2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
1v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
Tre Tucker WR · LV 4+ receptions+115consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 3.5: -148consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIA2026 week 1
2v KC2025 week 18
5v NYG2025 week 17
4v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 4+ receptions-160consensus market price

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 3.5: +122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ARI2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
5v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
2v PHI2025 week 14
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 3+ receptions-148consensus market price

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 2.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIA2026 week 1
3v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
3v DAL2025 week 15
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 4+ receptions-155consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 3.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v MIA2026 week 1
3v KC2025 week 18
2v NYG2025 week 17
1v HOU2025 week 16
4v PHI2025 week 15
Michael Mayer TE · LV 6+ receptions+106consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 5% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -44pp

Under 5.5: -137consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v MIA2026 week 1
3v KC2025 week 18
9v NYG2025 week 17
1v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
Jack Bech WR · LV 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-20 capture; an older price is not shown

Jack BechWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Ungradeable, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
2v HOU2025 week 16
2v PHI2025 week 15
6v DEN2025 week 14
Rushing yards5
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 1+ rushing yards+135consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 0.5: -177consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.1, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-6v MIA2026 week 1
0v NO2025 week 18
1v LA2025 week 17
-3v ARI2025 week 16
0v TB2025 week 15
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 64+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 48 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 63.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 53.8, median 49
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

102v MIA2026 week 1
87v KC2025 week 18
60v NYG2025 week 17
128v HOU2025 week 16
35v PHI2025 week 15
More players (3)
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 20+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 19.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.8, median 4
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

29v ARI2026 week 1
57v NE2025 week 19
37v HOU2025 week 17
42v DAL2025 week 16
0v KC2025 week 15
Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 24+ rushing yards-106consensus market price

Keaton MitchellRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 24 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 23.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.8, median 2
The line
23.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v ARI2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
31v GB2025 week 17
13v NE2025 week 16
66v CIN2025 week 15
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 64+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 94 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 9% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 63.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.3, median 18
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

43v ARI2026 week 1
-1v NE2025 week 19
29v HOU2025 week 17
85v DAL2025 week 16
61v KC2025 week 15
Passing yards2
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 193+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 253 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 192.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 203.4, median 197
The line
192.5

His last 5, passing yards

160v MIA2026 week 1
159v NO2025 week 18
126v LA2025 week 17
190v ARI2025 week 16
365v TB2025 week 15
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 226+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 192 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 225.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 167.1, median 161.5
The line
225.5

His last 5, passing yards

187v ARI2026 week 1
120v NE2025 week 19
201v HOU2025 week 17
300v DAL2025 week 16
201v KC2025 week 15

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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