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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · Market line DEN -2.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

5 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards2
Parker Washington WR · JAX 59+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Parker WashingtonWR · JAXReceiving yards

DataPitch 40%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55, median 49
The line
58.5

His last 5, receiving yards

107v BUF2025 week 19
87v TEN2025 week 18
115v IND2025 week 17
145v DEN2025 week 16
53v NYJ2025 week 15
Brian Thomas WR · JAX 41+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Brian ThomasWR · JAXReceiving yards

DataPitch 25%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.6, median 21
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v BUF2025 week 19
49v TEN2025 week 18
39v IND2025 week 17
18v DEN2025 week 16
66v NYJ2025 week 15
Rushing yards2
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 17+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXRushing yards

DataPitch 41%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.4, median 13
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

31v BUF2025 week 19
11v TEN2025 week 18
26v IND2025 week 17
20v DEN2025 week 16
51v NYJ2025 week 15
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 47+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Bhayshul TutenRB · JAXRushing yards

DataPitch 11%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.6, median 15
The line
46.5

His last 5, rushing yards

51v BUF2025 week 19
23v TEN2025 week 18
7v NYJ2025 week 15
5v IND2025 week 14
17v TEN2025 week 13
Passing yards1
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 233+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXPassing yards

DataPitch 50%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 237.2, median 232
The line
232.5

His last 5, passing yards

205v BUF2025 week 19
239v TEN2025 week 18
249v IND2025 week 17
265v DEN2025 week 16
330v NYJ2025 week 15

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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