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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · Market line DEN -3 · total 45.5

How our calls did

Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20

Nothing on this game was called before kickoff, so it has no record.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 20 Sept, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

30 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards11
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 38+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 28 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 37.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.7, median 40
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v CLE2026 week 1
12v BUF2025 week 19
44v TEN2025 week 18
39v IND2025 week 17
45v DEN2025 week 16
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 9+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 8.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.7, median 9
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v KC2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 20
24v KC2025 week 17
14v JAX2025 week 16
17v LV2025 week 14
More players (9)
Brenton Strange TE · JAX 31+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Brenton StrangeTE · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 30.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35, median 29
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v CLE2026 week 1
9v BUF2025 week 19
52v TEN2025 week 18
54v IND2025 week 17
39v DEN2025 week 16
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 40+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 25 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 39.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.2, median 37
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v KC2026 week 1
17v NE2025 week 21
53v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
40v KC2025 week 17
Pat Bryant WR · DEN 31+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Pat BryantWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 30.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31, median 25
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

42v KC2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 21
32v BUF2025 week 20
31v LAC2025 week 18
42v JAX2025 week 16
Parker Washington WR · JAX 60+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Parker WashingtonWR · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 98 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 59.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.1, median 49
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

83v CLE2026 week 1
107v BUF2025 week 19
87v TEN2025 week 18
115v IND2025 week 17
145v DEN2025 week 16
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 21+ receiving yards-135consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 2 vs. Jacksonville

DataPitch 41% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 20.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.2, median 16
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v KC2026 week 1
22v NE2025 week 21
46v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
33v KC2025 week 17
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 35+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 34.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.7, median 21
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v CLE2026 week 1
21v BUF2025 week 19
49v TEN2025 week 18
39v IND2025 week 17
18v DEN2025 week 16
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 53+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 138 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 52.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.9, median 28
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v KC2026 week 1
0v TB2025 week 17
72v CIN2025 week 16
26v PIT2025 week 15
50v NYJ2025 week 14
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 10+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-20 capture; an older price is not shown

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 27 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 68%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.8, median 21
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v KC2026 week 1
0v LAC2025 week 18
17v KC2025 week 17
66v JAX2025 week 16
85v GB2025 week 15
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 10+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-20 capture; an older price is not shown

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 8.2, median 4
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v KC2026 week 1
7v LV2025 week 10
-2v HOU2025 week 9
10v DAL2025 week 8
-1v NYG2025 week 7
Receptions11
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 2+ receptions+180consensus market price

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +22pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v KC2026 week 1
0v LAC2025 week 18
4v KC2025 week 17
4v JAX2025 week 16
6v GB2025 week 15
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 2+ receptions+170consensus market price

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 1.5: -215consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v KC2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 20
2v KC2025 week 17
2v JAX2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 14
More players (9)
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 4+ receptions-125consensus market price

Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 3.5: -104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 1
1v BUF2025 week 19
5v TEN2025 week 18
6v IND2025 week 17
4v DEN2025 week 16
Brenton Strange TE · JAX 4+ receptions+105consensus market price

Brenton StrangeTE · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 3.5: -136consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 1
2v BUF2025 week 19
6v TEN2025 week 18
3v IND2025 week 17
5v DEN2025 week 16
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptions-104consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 3.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v KC2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 21
4v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
4v KC2025 week 17
Pat Bryant WR · DEN 4+ receptions+125consensus market price

Pat BryantWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 3.5: -156consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v KC2026 week 1
1v NE2025 week 21
3v BUF2025 week 20
4v LAC2025 week 18
5v JAX2025 week 16
Parker Washington WR · JAX 5+ receptions-120consensus market price

Parker WashingtonWR · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 4.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CLE2026 week 1
7v BUF2025 week 19
5v TEN2025 week 18
8v IND2025 week 17
6v DEN2025 week 16
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 3+ receptions-122consensus market price

Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 2.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CLE2026 week 1
2v BUF2025 week 19
3v TEN2025 week 18
4v IND2025 week 17
2v DEN2025 week 16
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 5+ receptions+105consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 4.5: -134consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v KC2026 week 1
0v TB2025 week 17
5v CIN2025 week 16
2v PIT2025 week 15
5v NYJ2025 week 14
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-20 capture; an older price is not shown

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 2 vs. Jacksonville

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v KC2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 21
5v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
5v KC2025 week 17
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-20 capture; an older price is not shown

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceptions

How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v KC2026 week 1
1v LV2025 week 10
1v HOU2025 week 9
2v DAL2025 week 8
1v NYG2025 week 7
Rushing yards6
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 20+ rushing yards+1700consensus market price

Troy FranklinWR · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 1% · Market 6%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.7, median 0
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v KC2026 week 1
0v LAC2025 week 18
0v KC2025 week 17
0v JAX2025 week 16
3v GB2025 week 15
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 28+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 2 vs. Jacksonville

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 27.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31.3, median 26
The line
27.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v KC2026 week 1
37v NE2025 week 21
20v BUF2025 week 20
28v LAC2025 week 18
43v KC2025 week 17
More players (4)
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 17+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 16.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.4, median 13
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

3v CLE2026 week 1
31v BUF2025 week 19
11v TEN2025 week 18
26v IND2025 week 17
20v DEN2025 week 16
Bo Nix QB · DEN 18+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 17.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.7, median 9
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v KC2026 week 1
29v BUF2025 week 20
49v LAC2025 week 18
42v KC2025 week 17
11v JAX2025 week 16
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 58+ rushing yards-116consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 36 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 57.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 45.4, median 39
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v KC2026 week 1
77v LV2025 week 10
61v HOU2025 week 9
111v DAL2025 week 8
81v NYG2025 week 7
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 49+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Bhayshul TutenRB · JAXRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 65 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 10% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Under 48.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.7, median 15
The line
48.5

His last 5, rushing yards

66v CLE2026 week 1
51v BUF2025 week 19
23v TEN2025 week 18
7v NYJ2025 week 15
5v IND2025 week 14
Passing yards2
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 223+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 189 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 222.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 237.9, median 233
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

234v CLE2026 week 1
205v BUF2025 week 19
239v TEN2025 week 18
249v IND2025 week 17
265v DEN2025 week 16
Bo Nix QB · DEN 221+ passing yards-110consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 288 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 220.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 206.1, median 200
The line
220.5

His last 5, passing yards

115v KC2026 week 1
279v BUF2025 week 20
124v LAC2025 week 18
175v KC2025 week 17
344v JAX2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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