DATAPITCH
← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · Market line KC -6.5 · total 47.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

8 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards4
Travis Kelce TE · KC 40+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Travis KelceTE · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.5, median 39
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v LV2025 week 18
36v DEN2025 week 17
6v TEN2025 week 16
70v LAC2025 week 15
8v HOU2025 week 14
Keenan Allen WR · IND 30+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33, median 27
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v NE2025 week 19
36v DEN2025 week 18
17v HOU2025 week 17
44v DAL2025 week 16
36v KC2025 week 15
More players (2)
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 21+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.8, median 15
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v HOU2025 week 18
14v JAX2025 week 17
33v SF2025 week 16
14v SEA2025 week 15
0v JAX2025 week 14
Tyler Warren TE · IND 46+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.6, median 31
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v HOU2025 week 18
43v JAX2025 week 17
30v SF2025 week 16
19v SEA2025 week 15
15v JAX2025 week 14
Rushing yards2
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 79+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 81, median 76
The line
78.5

His last 5, rushing yards

26v HOU2025 week 18
70v JAX2025 week 17
46v SF2025 week 16
87v SEA2025 week 15
74v JAX2025 week 14
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 83+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCRushing yards

DataPitch 6%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 32.4, median 25
The line
82.5

His last 5, rushing yards

135v NE2025 week 22
62v LA2025 week 21
116v SF2025 week 20
97v SF2025 week 18
51v CAR2025 week 17
Passing yards2
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 234+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Patrick MahomesQB · KCPassing yards

DataPitch 78%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 297.1, median 292
The line
233.5

His last 5, passing yards

168v LAC2025 week 15
148v HOU2025 week 14
243v DAL2025 week 13
348v IND2025 week 12
249v DEN2025 week 11
Daniel Jones QB · IND 230+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Daniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards

DataPitch 32%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 203, median 197
The line
229.5

His last 5, passing yards

60v JAX2025 week 14
195v HOU2025 week 13
181v KC2025 week 12
196v ATL2025 week 10
313v PIT2025 week 9

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming