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Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Week 2 · Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET · Market line BUF -5.5 · total 54.5

How our calls did

Final: Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Tue 15 Sept, 14:39 UK.

Every market we price

22 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 13+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 12.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.9, median 14
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v DET2026 week 2
7v HOU2026 week 1
32v DEN2025 week 20
30v JAX2025 week 19
24v NYJ2025 week 18
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 30+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 61 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 29.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.4, median 30
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v BUF2026 week 2
30v NO2026 week 1
33v CHI2025 week 18
23v MIN2025 week 17
66v PIT2025 week 16
More players (6)
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 80+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 142 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 79.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 83.3, median 77
The line
79.5

His last 5, receiving yards

142v BUF2026 week 2
67v NO2026 week 1
139v CHI2025 week 18
68v MIN2025 week 17
54v PIT2025 week 16
Jameson Williams WR · DET 56+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 33 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 55.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.1, median 46
The line
55.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v BUF2026 week 2
45v NO2026 week 1
74v CHI2025 week 18
37v MIN2025 week 17
70v PIT2025 week 16
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 47+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 52 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 46.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.5, median 34
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

52v BUF2026 week 2
48v NO2026 week 1
53v WAS2025 week 10
97v MIN2025 week 9
15v TB2025 week 7
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 45+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 38 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 44.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.9, median 31
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

38v DET2026 week 2
50v HOU2026 week 1
75v DEN2025 week 20
82v JAX2025 week 19
35v PHI2025 week 17
DJ Moore WR · BUF 61+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 60.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.6, median 22
The line
60.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v DET2026 week 2
100v HOU2026 week 1
52v LA2025 week 20
64v GB2025 week 19
11v DET2025 week 18
James Cook RB · BUF 15+ receiving yardsno price held

James CookRB · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.1, median 7
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v DET2026 week 2
12v HOU2026 week 1
24v DEN2025 week 20
5v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
Receptions18
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 2+ receptionsWon2 receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 1.5: -160price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
3v DEN2025 week 20
3v JAX2025 week 19
2v NYJ2025 week 18
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions+110price shown when this board was published

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 4.5: -145price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
10v PIT2025 week 16
More players (6)
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions-135price shown when this board was published

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 3.5: +105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BUF2026 week 2
4v NO2026 week 1
6v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
5v PIT2025 week 16
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions+105price shown when this board was published

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 4.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
5v WAS2025 week 10
6v MIN2025 week 9
3v TB2025 week 7
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 5+ receptions+102price shown when this board was published

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 4.5: -132price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DET2026 week 2
4v HOU2026 week 1
7v DEN2025 week 20
12v JAX2025 week 19
6v PHI2025 week 17
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 8+ receptions-106price shown when this board was published

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 9 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 7.5: -121price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.5, median 6
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

9v BUF2026 week 2
10v NO2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 18
8v MIN2025 week 17
4v PIT2025 week 16
James Cook RB · BUF 3+ receptions+117price shown when this board was published

James CookRB · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 2.5: -162price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v DET2026 week 2
3v HOU2026 week 1
2v DEN2025 week 20
2v JAX2025 week 19
0v NYJ2025 week 18
DJ Moore WR · BUF 5+ receptions-110price shown when this board was published

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 10% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 4.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

0v DET2026 week 2
5v HOU2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 20
6v GB2025 week 19
1v DET2025 week 18
Rushing yards4
James Cook RB · BUF 75+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

James CookRB · BUFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 135 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 74.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 85.4, median 78
The line
74.5

His last 5, rushing yards

135v DET2026 week 2
57v HOU2026 week 1
117v DEN2025 week 20
46v JAX2025 week 19
15v NYJ2025 week 18
Josh Allen QB · BUF 31+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 69 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 30.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.7, median 27
The line
30.5

His last 5, rushing yards

69v DET2026 week 2
23v HOU2026 week 1
66v DEN2025 week 20
33v JAX2025 week 19
27v PHI2025 week 17
More players (2)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 91+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 52 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 90.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 87.7, median 81
The line
90.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v BUF2026 week 2
156v NO2026 week 1
80v CHI2025 week 18
41v MIN2025 week 17
2v PIT2025 week 16
Jared Goff QB · DET 1+ rushing yardsno price held

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.6, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v BUF2026 week 2
2v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
-1v PIT2025 week 16
Passing yards2
Jared Goff QB · DET 267+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 327 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 266.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 255.6, median 251
The line
266.5

His last 5, passing yards

289v BUF2026 week 2
204v NO2026 week 1
316v CHI2025 week 18
163v MIN2025 week 17
346v PIT2025 week 16
Josh Allen QB · BUF 251+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 248 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 250.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 209.4, median 203
The line
250.5

His last 5, passing yards

243v DET2026 week 2
323v HOU2026 week 1
266v DEN2025 week 20
261v JAX2025 week 19
211v PHI2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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