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Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Market line HOU -3 · total 46.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

10 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards4
Chase Brown RB · CIN 24+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Chase BrownRB · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 55%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.6, median 26
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v CLE2025 week 18
40v ARI2025 week 17
43v MIA2025 week 16
37v BAL2025 week 15
12v BUF2025 week 14
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 82+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 91.1, median 85
The line
81.5

His last 5, receiving yards

96v CLE2025 week 18
60v ARI2025 week 17
109v MIA2025 week 16
132v BAL2025 week 15
44v BUF2025 week 14
More players (2)
Nico Collins WR · HOU 70+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 71.1, median 64
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v PIT2025 week 19
57v LAC2025 week 17
59v LV2025 week 16
85v ARI2025 week 15
121v KC2025 week 14
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 57+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55, median 49
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

67v CLE2025 week 18
59v ARI2025 week 17
53v MIA2025 week 16
92v BUF2025 week 14
31v NE2025 week 12
Rushing yards4
Chase Brown RB · CIN 54+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Chase BrownRB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 36%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 48, median 42
The line
53.5

His last 5, rushing yards

72v CLE2025 week 18
101v ARI2025 week 17
66v MIA2025 week 16
53v BAL2025 week 15
23v BUF2025 week 14
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 11+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

C.J. StroudQB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 21%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.9, median 0
The line
10.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v NE2025 week 20
0v PIT2025 week 19
5v IND2025 week 18
0v LAC2025 week 17
0v LV2025 week 16
More players (2)
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 8+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Joe BurrowQB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 17%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4, median 0
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

17v CLE2025 week 18
2v ARI2025 week 17
6v MIA2025 week 16
5v BAL2025 week 15
0v BUF2025 week 14
David Montgomery RB · HOU 58+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

David MontgomeryRB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 10%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.7, median 15
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

42v CHI2025 week 18
25v MIN2025 week 17
14v PIT2025 week 16
32v LA2025 week 15
60v DAL2025 week 14
Passing yards2
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 223+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

C.J. StroudQB · HOUPassing yards

DataPitch 73%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 274.7, median 268
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

193v NE2025 week 20
244v PIT2025 week 19
169v IND2025 week 18
244v LAC2025 week 17
187v LV2025 week 16
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 256+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Joe BurrowQB · CINPassing yards

DataPitch 35%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 233.4, median 228
The line
255.5

His last 5, passing yards

222v CLE2025 week 18
285v ARI2025 week 17
298v MIA2025 week 16
198v BAL2025 week 15
276v BUF2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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