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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Market line PHI -6 · total 43.5

How our calls did

Final: Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24

Called before kickoff: 5. Won 2, lost 1, void 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards18
Marquise Brown WR · PHI 12+ receiving yardsVoiddid not play-113price shown when this board was published

Marquise BrownWR · PHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 73% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 11.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.8, median 28
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

64v LV2025 week 18
7v DEN2025 week 17
22v TEN2025 week 16
35v HOU2025 week 14
20v DAL2025 week 13
Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 38+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Dallas GoedertTE · PHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 77 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 37.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.6, median 41
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v SF2025 week 19
8v BUF2025 week 17
32v WAS2025 week 16
70v LV2025 week 15
78v LAC2025 week 14
More players (6)
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 16+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, -3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 15.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.3, median 14
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
14v LV2025 week 15
0v LAC2025 week 14
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 41+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 55 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 40.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.7, median 26
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v SEA2025 week 22
17v DEN2025 week 21
40v HOU2025 week 20
16v LAC2025 week 19
43v MIA2025 week 18
Rachaad White RB · WAS 15+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 14.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.4, median 7
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v CAR2025 week 18
7v MIA2025 week 17
15v CAR2025 week 16
6v ATL2025 week 15
2v NO2025 week 14
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 65+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 53 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 64.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47, median 39
The line
64.5

His last 5, receiving yards

70v SF2025 week 19
52v WAS2025 week 18
25v BUF2025 week 17
42v WAS2025 week 16
50v LV2025 week 15
Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 53+ receiving yards-107price shown when this board was published

Terry McLaurinWR · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 52.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.8, median 26
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v PHI2025 week 18
63v DAL2025 week 17
53v PHI2025 week 16
69v NYG2025 week 15
41v MIN2025 week 14
Treylon Burks WR · WAS 14+ receiving yardsno price held

Treylon BurksWR · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.2, median 9
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v PHI2025 week 18
11v DAL2025 week 17
30v PHI2025 week 16
0v NYG2025 week 15
0v MIN2025 week 14
Receptions28
Marquise Brown WR · PHI 2+ receptionsVoiddid not play+179price shown when this board was published

Marquise BrownWR · PHIReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 63% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 1.5: -243price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2025 week 18
1v DEN2025 week 17
3v TEN2025 week 16
1v HOU2025 week 14
2v DAL2025 week 13
Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 4+ receptionsWon4 receptions-125price shown when this board was published

Dallas GoedertTE · PHIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 60% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 3.5: -103price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v SF2025 week 19
3v BUF2025 week 17
3v WAS2025 week 16
6v LV2025 week 15
8v LAC2025 week 14
More players (6)
Treylon Burks WR · WAS 2+ receptions+132price shown when this board was published

Treylon BurksWR · WASReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 1.5: -190price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.3, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2025 week 18
1v DAL2025 week 17
2v PHI2025 week 16
0v NYG2025 week 15
0v MIN2025 week 14
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 3+ receptions+100price shown when this board was published

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 2.5: -130price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 15
0v LAC2025 week 14
Rachaad White RB · WAS 3+ receptions+127price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 2.5: -164price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CAR2025 week 18
2v MIA2025 week 17
2v CAR2025 week 16
1v ATL2025 week 15
1v NO2025 week 14
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6+ receptions+109price shown when this board was published

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 18% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 5.5: -139price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

8v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
2v BUF2025 week 17
6v WAS2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 15
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 4+ receptions-143price shown when this board was published

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 3.5: +114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2025 week 22
5v DEN2025 week 21
4v HOU2025 week 20
2v LAC2025 week 19
3v MIA2025 week 18
Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 4+ receptions-161price shown when this board was published

Terry McLaurinWR · WASReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 3.5: +126price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v PHI2025 week 18
5v DAL2025 week 17
3v PHI2025 week 16
3v NYG2025 week 15
3v MIN2025 week 14
Rushing yards14
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 77+ rushing yardsWon83 yds-117price shown when this board was published

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 83 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 64% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 76.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 98.6, median 92
The line
76.5

His last 5, rushing yards

106v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
132v WAS2025 week 16
78v LV2025 week 15
122v LAC2025 week 14
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 30+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 46 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 29.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.6, median 18
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
40v WAS2025 week 16
39v LV2025 week 15
8v LAC2025 week 14
More players (2)
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 36+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Jayden DanielsQB · WASRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 31 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 35.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 26.3, median 19
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v MIN2025 week 14
51v SEA2025 week 9
35v DAL2025 week 7
52v CHI2025 week 6
39v LAC2025 week 5
Rachaad White RB · WAS 25+ rushing yards-105price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 18% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 24.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.9, median 6
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v CAR2025 week 18
10v MIA2025 week 17
45v CAR2025 week 16
20v ATL2025 week 15
53v NO2025 week 14
Passing yards13
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 215+ passing yardsLost203 yds-105price shown when this board was published

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 203 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 214.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 256.9, median 251
The line
214.5

His last 5, passing yards

167v SF2025 week 19
108v BUF2025 week 17
178v WAS2025 week 16
171v LV2025 week 15
231v LAC2025 week 14
Andy Dalton QB · PHI 220+ passing yards+108price shown when this board was published

Andy DaltonQB · PHIPassing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 214.2, median 208
The line
219.5

His last 5, passing yards

130v BUF2025 week 8
51v NYJ2025 week 7
58v NE2025 week 4
89v WAS2024 week 7
221v ATL2024 week 6
More players (1)
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 200+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jayden DanielsQB · WASPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 164 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 199.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 175, median 169
The line
199.5

His last 5, passing yards

77v MIN2025 week 14
133v SEA2025 week 9
151v DAL2025 week 7
205v CHI2025 week 6
226v LAC2025 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 1 NFL player props, every gamePhiladelphia Eagles season simulation and futures pricesWashington Commanders season simulation and futures pricesEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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