at
24 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on. Green marks a gap that clears our own publication bar.
DataPitch 38% · Market 54% · Gap -16pp
Under 89.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 81.9, median 75. The line is 89.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 34% · Market 54% · Gap -20pp
Under 59.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 50.2, median 44. The line is 59.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 33% · Market 54% · Gap -21pp
Under 58.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 49, median 41. The line is 58.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. ChaseWR · CIN | ||||
| T. HigginsWR · CIN | ||||
| E. EgbukaWR · TB |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 56% · Market 39% · Gap +16pp
Under 1.5: -220 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.1, median 2. The line is 1.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DataPitch 56% · Market 45% · Gap +11pp
Under 3.5: -165 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 4.3, median 4. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 40% · Market 41% · Gap 0pp
Under 1.5: -195 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 1.5, median 1. The line is 1.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DataPitch 37% · Market 41% · Gap -4pp
Under 2.5: -193 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.3, median 2. The line is 2.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 44% · Market 54% · Gap -9pp
Under 3.5: -113 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.5, median 3. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 32% · Market 48% · Gap -16pp
Under 7.5: -140 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 6.4, median 6. The line is 7.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 40% · Market 60% · Gap -20pp
Under 3.5: +107 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.3, median 3. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 24% · Market 46% · Gap -22pp
Under 3.5: -154 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.3, median 2. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 41% · Market 64% · Gap -23pp
Under 2.5: +133 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.4, median 2. The line is 2.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 19% · Market 45% · Gap -25pp
Under 4.5: -165 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.9, median 3. The line is 4.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 30% · Market 60% · Gap -30pp
Under 4.5: +110 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.5, median 3. The line is 4.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade OttonTE · TB | ||||
| Bucky IrvingRB · TB | ||||
| Chase BrownRB · CIN | ||||
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | ||||
| Chris GodwinWR · TB | ||||
| Kenneth GainwellRB · TB | ||||
| Jalen McMillanWR · TB | ||||
| Emeka EgbukaWR · TB | ||||
| Tee HigginsWR · CIN |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 69% · Market 53% · Gap +16pp
Under 21.5: -103 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 38.4, median 33. The line is 21.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 68% · Market 53% · Gap +14pp
Under 58.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 79.2, median 74. The line is 58.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 67% · Market 53% · Gap +14pp
Under 19.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 32.2, median 28. The line is 19.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 49% · Market 54% · Gap -4pp
Under 57.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 61.7, median 57. The line is 57.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 0% · Market 7% · Gap -7pp
Our simulated rushing yards: average 3.5, median 0. The line is 49.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DataPitch 1% · Market 12% · Gap -10pp
Our simulated rushing yards: average 4.1, median 0. The line is 39.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DataPitch 42% · Market 53% · Gap -12pp
Under 15.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 16.9, median 12. The line is 15.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 30% · Market 54% · Gap -24pp
Under 6.5: -113 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 5.5, median 2. The line is 6.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth GainwellRB · TB | ||||
| Bucky IrvingRB · TB | ||||
| Samaje PerineRB · CIN | ||||
| Chase BrownRB · CIN | ||||
| Cade OttonTE · TB | · | · | · | |
| Baker MayfieldQB · TB | ||||
| Joe BurrowQB · CIN |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 62% · Market 53% · Gap +9pp
Under 232.5: -114 market price
Our simulated passing yards: average 263.7, median 258. The line is 232.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 33% · Market 53% · Gap -20pp
Under 267.5: -114 market price
Our simulated passing yards: average 239.5, median 233. The line is 267.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 240+ | 250+ | 260+ | 270+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB · TB | ||||
| Joe BurrowQB · CIN |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.
