← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Market line CIN -3.5 · total 50.5

How our calls did

Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33

Called before kickoff: 7. Won 3, lost 4.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

32 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards211
Andrei Iosivas WR · CIN 14+ receiving yardsLost12 yds-112price shown when this board was published

Andrei IosivasWR · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 12 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 68% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 13.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.6, median 25
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v CLE2025 week 18
41v ARI2025 week 17
21v MIA2025 week 16
0v BAL2025 week 15
17v BUF2025 week 14
Drew Sample TE · CIN 5+ receiving yardsWon19 yds-108price shown when this board was published

Drew SampleTE · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 19 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 64% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 4.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.9, median 10
The line
4.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v CLE2025 week 18
8v ARI2025 week 17
31v MIA2025 week 16
12v BAL2025 week 15
14v BAL2025 week 13
More players (9)
Chase Brown RB · CIN 24+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Chase BrownRB · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 23.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.7, median 26
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v CLE2025 week 18
40v ARI2025 week 17
43v MIA2025 week 16
37v BAL2025 week 15
12v BUF2025 week 14
Cade Otton TE · TB 32+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Cade OttonTE · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 26 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 31.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.7, median 33
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

94v CAR2025 week 18
33v MIA2025 week 17
15v CAR2025 week 16
19v NO2025 week 14
9v ARI2025 week 13
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 86+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 12 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 85.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 93, median 87
The line
85.5

His last 5, receiving yards

96v CLE2025 week 18
60v ARI2025 week 17
109v MIA2025 week 16
132v BAL2025 week 15
44v BUF2025 week 14
Bucky Irving RB · TB 14+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 48 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 13.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 12
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v CAR2025 week 18
14v MIA2025 week 17
0v CAR2025 week 16
11v ATL2025 week 15
26v NO2025 week 14
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 63+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 59 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 62.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.9, median 48
The line
62.5

His last 5, receiving yards

67v CLE2025 week 18
59v ARI2025 week 17
53v MIA2025 week 16
92v BUF2025 week 14
31v NE2025 week 12
DoubtfulJalen McMillan WR · TB 32+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Jalen McMillanWR · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 1 at Cincinnati

DataPitch 37% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 31.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.7, median 22
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v CAR2025 week 18
114v MIA2025 week 17
15v CAR2025 week 16
38v ATL2025 week 15
41v WAS2024 week 19
Kenneth Gainwell RB · TB 24+ receiving yards+100price shown when this board was published

Kenneth GainwellRB · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 23.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.7, median 10
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v HOU2025 week 19
64v BAL2025 week 18
12v CLE2025 week 17
78v DET2025 week 16
46v MIA2025 week 15
Chris Godwin WR · TB 48+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Chris GodwinWR · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 47.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.5, median 27
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v CAR2025 week 18
108v MIA2025 week 17
30v CAR2025 week 16
20v ATL2025 week 15
55v NO2025 week 14
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 58+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 63 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 57.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41, median 32
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v CAR2025 week 18
20v MIA2025 week 17
40v CAR2025 week 16
64v ATL2025 week 15
15v NO2025 week 14
Receptions211
Andrei Iosivas WR · CIN 2+ receptionsWon2 receptions+106price shown when this board was published

Andrei IosivasWR · CINReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 59% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 1.5: -140price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2025 week 18
4v ARI2025 week 17
1v MIA2025 week 16
0v BAL2025 week 15
2v BUF2025 week 14
Drew Sample TE · CIN 2+ receptionsWon3 receptions+175price shown when this board was published

Drew SampleTE · CINReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 1.5: -226price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CLE2025 week 18
1v ARI2025 week 17
2v MIA2025 week 16
2v BAL2025 week 15
1v BAL2025 week 13
More players (9)
Chase Brown RB · CIN 4+ receptions-108price shown when this board was published

Chase BrownRB · CINReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 3.5: -120price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CLE2025 week 18
3v ARI2025 week 17
4v MIA2025 week 16
7v BAL2025 week 15
3v BUF2025 week 14
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 8+ receptions+115price shown when this board was published

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 7.5: -146price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7.2, median 7
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

8v CLE2025 week 18
7v ARI2025 week 17
9v MIA2025 week 16
10v BAL2025 week 15
5v BUF2025 week 14
Cade Otton TE · TB 4+ receptions+107price shown when this board was published

Cade OttonTE · TBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 3.5: -136price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v CAR2025 week 18
4v MIA2025 week 17
2v CAR2025 week 16
3v NO2025 week 14
2v ARI2025 week 13
Bucky Irving RB · TB 3+ receptions+149price shown when this board was published

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 2.5: -193price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2025 week 18
5v MIA2025 week 17
0v CAR2025 week 16
1v ATL2025 week 15
2v NO2025 week 14
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 5+ receptions-139price shown when this board was published

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 4.5: +109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CLE2025 week 18
4v ARI2025 week 17
3v MIA2025 week 16
6v BUF2025 week 14
5v NE2025 week 12
DoubtfulJalen McMillan WR · TB 3+ receptions-122price shown when this board was published

Jalen McMillanWR · TBReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 1 at Cincinnati

DataPitch 32% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 2.5: +110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2025 week 18
7v MIA2025 week 17
2v CAR2025 week 16
2v ATL2025 week 15
2v WAS2024 week 19
Kenneth Gainwell RB · TB 4+ receptions+122price shown when this board was published

Kenneth GainwellRB · TBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 3.5: -151price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v HOU2025 week 19
8v BAL2025 week 18
3v CLE2025 week 17
5v DET2025 week 16
7v MIA2025 week 15
Chris Godwin WR · TB 5+ receptions+107price shown when this board was published

Chris GodwinWR · TBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 4.5: -137price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2025 week 18
7v MIA2025 week 17
5v CAR2025 week 16
4v ATL2025 week 15
5v NO2025 week 14
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 5+ receptions+102price shown when this board was published

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 4.5: -130price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2025 week 18
3v MIA2025 week 17
1v CAR2025 week 16
4v ATL2025 week 15
2v NO2025 week 14
Rushing yards28
Bucky Irving RB · TB 58+ rushing yardsLost45 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Bucky IrvingRB · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 45 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 95% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +42pp

Under 57.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 132.5, median 127
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

85v CAR2025 week 18
19v MIA2025 week 17
71v CAR2025 week 16
60v ATL2025 week 15
55v NO2025 week 14
Kenneth Gainwell RB · TB 23+ rushing yardsLost15 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Kenneth GainwellRB · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 22.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 42.9, median 35
The line
22.5

His last 5, rushing yards

20v HOU2025 week 19
10v BAL2025 week 18
26v CLE2025 week 17
50v DET2025 week 16
80v MIA2025 week 15
More players (6)
Samaje Perine RB · CIN 19+ rushing yards-110price shown when this board was published

Samaje PerineRB · CINRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 18.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 26, median 19
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

42v CLE2025 week 18
5v ARI2025 week 17
25v MIA2025 week 16
42v BAL2025 week 15
31v BUF2025 week 14
Tez Johnson WR · TB 50+ rushing yards+1280price shown when this board was published

Tez JohnsonWR · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, -4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 2% · Market 7%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.9, median 0
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v CAR2025 week 18
0v MIA2025 week 17
0v CAR2025 week 16
0v ATL2025 week 15
0v ARI2025 week 13
Baker Mayfield QB · TB 16+ rushing yards-117price shown when this board was published

Baker MayfieldQB · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 30 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 15.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.5, median 14
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

31v CAR2025 week 18
16v MIA2025 week 17
49v CAR2025 week 16
1v ATL2025 week 15
42v NO2025 week 14
Cade Otton TE · TB 40+ rushing yards+750price shown when this board was published

Cade OttonTE · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 4% · Market 12%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.7, median 0
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CAR2025 week 18
0v MIA2025 week 17
0v CAR2025 week 16
0v NO2025 week 14
0v ARI2025 week 13
Chase Brown RB · CIN 58+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Chase BrownRB · CINRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 56 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 57.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 49.7, median 43
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

72v CLE2025 week 18
101v ARI2025 week 17
66v MIA2025 week 16
53v BAL2025 week 15
23v BUF2025 week 14
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 9+ rushing yards-110price shown when this board was published

Joe BurrowQB · CINRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 8.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.2, median 0
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

17v CLE2025 week 18
2v ARI2025 week 17
6v MIA2025 week 16
5v BAL2025 week 15
0v BUF2025 week 14
Passing yards12
Baker Mayfield QB · TB 233+ passing yardsLost216 yds-111price shown when this board was published

Baker MayfieldQB · TBPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 216 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 232.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 266.4, median 262
The line
232.5

His last 5, passing yards

198v CAR2025 week 18
327v MIA2025 week 17
127v CAR2025 week 16
252v ATL2025 week 15
122v NO2025 week 14
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 270+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Joe BurrowQB · CINPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 254 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 269.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 241.7, median 237
The line
269.5

His last 5, passing yards

222v CLE2025 week 18
285v ARI2025 week 17
298v MIA2025 week 16
198v BAL2025 week 15
276v BUF2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 1 NFL player props, every gameCincinnati Bengals season simulation and futures pricesTampa Bay Buccaneers season simulation and futures pricesEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming