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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Market line DET -7 · total 49.5

How our calls did

Final: New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31

Called before kickoff: 3. Lost 1, void 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 44+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 54 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 43.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.4, median 42
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v ATL2025 week 18
95v TEN2025 week 17
89v NYJ2025 week 16
30v CAR2025 week 15
38v TB2025 week 14
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 41+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 69 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 40.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.7, median 36
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

69v CAR2025 week 15
40v TB2025 week 14
93v MIA2025 week 13
37v ATL2025 week 12
15v CAR2025 week 10
More players (8)
Chris Olave WR · NO 77+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 182 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 76.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 77.3, median 71
The line
76.5

His last 5, receiving yards

119v TEN2025 week 17
148v NYJ2025 week 16
85v CAR2025 week 15
30v TB2025 week 14
47v MIA2025 week 13
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 31+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 30 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 30.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.1, median 27
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v CHI2025 week 18
23v MIN2025 week 17
66v PIT2025 week 16
20v LA2025 week 15
77v DAL2025 week 14
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 78+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 67 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 77.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 76.8, median 70
The line
77.5

His last 5, receiving yards

139v CHI2025 week 18
68v MIN2025 week 17
54v PIT2025 week 16
164v LA2025 week 15
92v DAL2025 week 14
Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 17+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 16.5: -120price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.8, median 12
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v BUF2025 week 19
6v TEN2025 week 18
16v IND2025 week 17
16v DEN2025 week 16
73v NYJ2025 week 15
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 18+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 17.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.2, median 9
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v CHI2025 week 18
49v MIN2025 week 17
52v PIT2025 week 16
0v LA2025 week 15
20v DAL2025 week 14
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 44+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 48 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 43.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.6, median 30
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v WAS2025 week 10
97v MIN2025 week 9
15v TB2025 week 7
55v KC2025 week 6
92v CIN2025 week 5
Jameson Williams WR · DET 59+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 45 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 58.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.8, median 41
The line
58.5

His last 5, receiving yards

74v CHI2025 week 18
37v MIN2025 week 17
70v PIT2025 week 16
134v LA2025 week 15
96v DAL2025 week 14
DoubtfulAlvin Kamara RB · NO 25+ receiving yards-225price shown when this board was published

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - MCL - Full Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 1 at Detroit

DataPitch 41% · Market 69%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.9, median 19
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v ATL2025 week 12
32v CAR2025 week 10
3v LA2025 week 9
24v TB2025 week 8
1v CHI2025 week 7
Receptions110
DoubtfulAlvin Kamara RB · NO 2+ receptionsVoiddid not play-150price shown when this board was published

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - MCL - Full Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 1 at Detroit

DataPitch 70% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 1.5: +110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ATL2025 week 12
3v CAR2025 week 10
1v LA2025 week 9
2v TB2025 week 8
3v CHI2025 week 7
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 5+ receptions+118price shown when this board was published

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 4.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ATL2025 week 18
4v TEN2025 week 17
8v NYJ2025 week 16
4v CAR2025 week 15
4v TB2025 week 14
More players (8)
Chris Olave WR · NO 7+ receptions+105price shown when this board was published

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 6.5: -137price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.1, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

8v TEN2025 week 17
10v NYJ2025 week 16
6v CAR2025 week 15
3v TB2025 week 14
4v MIA2025 week 13
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions+117price shown when this board was published

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 4.5: -151price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
10v PIT2025 week 16
4v LA2025 week 15
7v DAL2025 week 14
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 4+ receptions-105price shown when this board was published

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 3.5: -123price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CAR2025 week 15
3v TB2025 week 14
8v MIA2025 week 13
3v ATL2025 week 12
1v CAR2025 week 10
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions+116price shown when this board was published

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 4.5: -151price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v WAS2025 week 10
6v MIN2025 week 9
3v TB2025 week 7
5v KC2025 week 6
5v CIN2025 week 5
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 7+ receptions-114price shown when this board was published

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 6.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.9, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

11v CHI2025 week 18
8v MIN2025 week 17
4v PIT2025 week 16
13v LA2025 week 15
6v DAL2025 week 14
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2+ receptions+100price shown when this board was published

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 1.5: -131price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CHI2025 week 18
3v MIN2025 week 17
4v PIT2025 week 16
0v LA2025 week 15
2v DAL2025 week 14
Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 3+ receptions-130price shown when this board was published

Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NOReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 2.5: +100price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BUF2025 week 19
1v TEN2025 week 18
2v IND2025 week 17
4v DEN2025 week 16
3v NYJ2025 week 15
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions-150price shown when this board was published

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
5v PIT2025 week 16
7v LA2025 week 15
7v DAL2025 week 14
Rushing yards26
DoubtfulAlvin Kamara RB · NO 25+ rushing yardsVoiddid not play+180price shown when this board was published

Alvin KamaraRB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - MCL - Full Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 1 at Detroit

DataPitch 73% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +37pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 49.6, median 43
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v ATL2025 week 12
83v CAR2025 week 10
14v LA2025 week 9
21v TB2025 week 8
28v CHI2025 week 7
Chris Olave WR · NO 1+ rushing yardsLost0 yds+1100price shown when this board was published

Chris OlaveWR · NORushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 8%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 0.5: -4000price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v TEN2025 week 17
0v NYJ2025 week 16
0v CAR2025 week 15
0v TB2025 week 14
0v MIA2025 week 13
More players (4)
Jared Goff QB · DET 1+ rushing yards+139price shown when this board was published

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 0.5: -170price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.9, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
-1v PIT2025 week 16
0v LA2025 week 15
-2v DAL2025 week 14
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 85+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 156 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 84.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 87.3, median 80.5
The line
84.5

His last 5, rushing yards

80v CHI2025 week 18
41v MIN2025 week 17
2v PIT2025 week 16
38v LA2025 week 15
43v DAL2025 week 14
Tyler Shough QB · NO 19+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Tyler ShoughQB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 8 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 18.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.3, median 10
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

34v ATL2025 week 18
6v TEN2025 week 17
8v NYJ2025 week 16
32v CAR2025 week 15
55v TB2025 week 14
Travis Etienne Jr. RB · NO 58+ rushing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 46 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 57.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 42, median 35
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

67v BUF2025 week 19
32v TEN2025 week 18
76v IND2025 week 17
50v DEN2025 week 16
32v NYJ2025 week 15
Passing yards2
Tyler Shough QB · NO 246+ passing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 410 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 245.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 254.9, median 250
The line
245.5

His last 5, passing yards

232v ATL2025 week 18
320v TEN2025 week 17
290v NYJ2025 week 16
256v CAR2025 week 15
121v TB2025 week 14
Jared Goff QB · DET 262+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 206 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 261.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 261.3, median 255
The line
261.5

His last 5, passing yards

316v CHI2025 week 18
163v MIN2025 week 17
346v PIT2025 week 16
326v LA2025 week 15
299v DAL2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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