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New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Week 1 · Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · Market line SEA -3.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 21 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themDrake MayeQB · NE225+ passing yards-115market price

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

21 players across every market.

Receiving yards6
R. Doubs WR · NE 36+ receiving yards-118captured book price

R. DoubsWR · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 35.5: -118captured book price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.7, median 38
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

124v CHI2025 week 19
62v BAL2025 week 17
84v CHI2025 week 16
36v DEN2025 week 15
0v CHI2025 week 14

His other lines in this market

43+ receiving yardsDataPitch 45% · Market 54%-118captured book price
H. Henry TE · NE 33+ receiving yards-118captured book price

H. HenryTE · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 32.5: -118captured book price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.6, median 32
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v SEA2025 week 22
12v DEN2025 week 21
5v HOU2025 week 20
64v LAC2025 week 19
56v MIA2025 week 18

His other lines in this market

40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 41% · Market 54%-118captured book price
More players (4)
AJ Barner TE · SEA 28+ receiving yards-115captured book price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 27.5: -115captured book price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.2, median 16
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v NE2025 week 22
13v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
14v SF2025 week 18
43v CAR2025 week 17
C. Kupp WR · SEA 31+ receiving yardsno price held

C. KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.6, median 33
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v NE2025 week 22
36v LA2025 week 21
60v SF2025 week 20
29v SF2025 week 18
6v CAR2025 week 17

His other lines in this market

35+ receiving yardsDataPitch 49% · Market 54%-118captured book price
J. Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 83+ receiving yardsno price held

J. Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 87.6, median 81
The line
82.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v NE2025 week 22
153v LA2025 week 21
19v SF2025 week 20
84v SF2025 week 18
72v CAR2025 week 17

His other lines in this market

88+ receiving yardsDataPitch 45% · Market 54%-118captured book price
91+ receiving yardsDataPitch 42% · Market 54%-118captured book price
A.J. Brown WR · NE 61+ receiving yardsno price held

A.J. BrownWR · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 26%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.9, median 34
The line
60.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
95v WAS2025 week 16
41v LV2025 week 15
100v LAC2025 week 14

His other lines in this market

62+ receiving yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 54%-118captured book price
68+ receiving yardsDataPitch 22% · Market 54%-118captured book price
Receptions18
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions-147market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 67% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 2.5: +112market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

6v NE2025 week 22
4v LA2025 week 21
5v SF2025 week 20
2v SF2025 week 18
1v CAR2025 week 17
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 7+ receptions+100market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 44% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 6.5: -125market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.4, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NE2025 week 22
10v LA2025 week 21
3v SF2025 week 20
6v SF2025 week 18
9v CAR2025 week 17
More players (6)
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 4+ receptions+120market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceptions

DataPitch 36% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 3.5: -162market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SEA2025 week 22
0v DEN2025 week 21
4v HOU2025 week 20
3v LAC2025 week 19
2v MIA2025 week 18
Romeo Doubs WR · NE 4+ receptions+116market price

Romeo DoubsWR · NEReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 3.5: -154market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

8v CHI2025 week 19
3v BAL2025 week 17
5v CHI2025 week 16
2v DEN2025 week 15
0v CHI2025 week 14
Hunter Henry TE · NE 4+ receptions+130market price

Hunter HenryTE · NEReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 3.5: -180market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2025 week 22
2v DEN2025 week 21
1v HOU2025 week 20
3v LAC2025 week 19
5v MIA2025 week 18
AJ Barner TE · SEA 3+ receptions-153market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 2.5: +118market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NE2025 week 22
2v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
2v SF2025 week 18
3v CAR2025 week 17
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3+ receptions+100market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 2.5: -125market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NE2025 week 22
1v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
1v SF2025 week 18
1v CAR2025 week 17
A.J. Brown WR · NE 5+ receptions-155market price

A.J. BrownWR · NEReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 4.5: +120market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
9v WAS2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 15
6v LAC2025 week 14
Rushing yards5
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 6+ rushing yards-114market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 5.5: -112market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.6, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v NE2025 week 22
9v LA2025 week 21
0v SF2025 week 20
9v SF2025 week 18
2v CAR2025 week 17
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3+ rushing yards-112market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 2.5: -114market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.7, median 0
The line
2.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-5v NE2025 week 22
0v LA2025 week 21
27v SF2025 week 20
0v SF2025 week 18
0v CAR2025 week 17
More players (3)
Drake Maye QB · NE 25+ rushing yards-114market price

Drake MayeQB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 24.5: -113market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.5, median 15
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

37v SEA2025 week 22
65v DEN2025 week 21
10v HOU2025 week 20
66v LAC2025 week 19
41v MIA2025 week 18
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 55+ rushing yards-115market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 54.5: -113market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.5, median 31
The line
54.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v SEA2025 week 22
71v DEN2025 week 21
70v HOU2025 week 20
53v LAC2025 week 19
131v MIA2025 week 18
George Holani RB · SEA 21+ rushing yards-114market price

George HolaniRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 15% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 20.5: -115market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.2, median 7
The line
20.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v NE2025 week 22
4v LA2025 week 21
6v LA2025 week 11
31v ARI2025 week 10
9v WAS2025 week 9
Passing yards12
Drake Maye QB · NE 225+ passing yards-115market price

Drake MayeQB · NEPassing yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 224.5: -109market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 274.9, median 269
The line
224.5

His last 5, passing yards

252v SEA2025 week 22
65v DEN2025 week 21
143v HOU2025 week 20
235v LAC2025 week 19
191v MIA2025 week 18
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 229+ passing yards-113market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEAPassing yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 228.5: -114market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 198.8, median 192
The line
228.5

His last 5, passing yards

194v NE2025 week 22
321v LA2025 week 21
106v SF2025 week 20
181v SF2025 week 18
125v CAR2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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