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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 1 · Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · Market line KC -3 · total 42.5

Every market we price

3 rows on 1 market, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on. Green marks a gap that clears our own publication bar.

Receiving yards3
T. KelceTE · KC44+ receiving yards-118captured book price

DataPitch 51% · Market 54% · Gap -4pp

Under 43.5: -118 captured book price

Our simulated receiving yards: average 49.7, median 44. The line is 43.5.

His last 5, receiving yards2025 week 18 v LV122025 week 17 v DEN362025 week 16 v TEN62025 week 15 v LAC702025 week 14 v HOU8

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

C. SuttonWR · DEN54+ receiving yards-118captured book price

DataPitch 41% · Market 54% · Gap -13pp

Under 53.5: -118 captured book price

Our simulated receiving yards: average 52.7, median 44. The line is 53.5.

His last 5, receiving yards2025 week 21 v NE172025 week 20 v BUF532025 week 18 v LAC52025 week 17 v KC402025 week 16 v JAX86

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

More players (1)
J. WaddleWR · DEN56+ receiving yards-118captured book price

DataPitch 34% · Market 54% · Gap -20pp

Under 55.5: -118 captured book price

Our simulated receiving yards: average 47.7, median 39. The line is 55.5.

His last 5, receiving yards2025 week 17 v TB02025 week 16 v CIN722025 week 15 v PIT262025 week 14 v NYJ502025 week 13 v NO40

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Receiving yards at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player40+50+60+70+
T. KelceTE · KC
C. SuttonWR · DEN
J. WaddleWR · DEN

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.