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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 1 · Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · Market line KC -2.5 · total 42.5

How our calls did

Final: Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31

Called before kickoff: 6. Won 1, lost 5.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

33 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards112
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 25+ receiving yardsLost0 yds+600price shown when this board was published

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 14%

Against this price: Gap +36pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31, median 24
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LAC2025 week 18
17v KC2025 week 17
66v JAX2025 week 16
85v GB2025 week 15
11v LV2025 week 14
Noah Gray TE · KC 10+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Noah GrayTE · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 9.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.1, median 12
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

30v LV2025 week 18
2v DEN2025 week 17
0v TEN2025 week 16
14v HOU2025 week 14
25v IND2025 week 12
More players (10)
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 8+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 10 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 7.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16, median 9
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v BUF2025 week 20
24v KC2025 week 17
14v JAX2025 week 16
17v LV2025 week 14
47v WAS2025 week 13
Pat Bryant WR · DEN 24+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Pat BryantWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 42 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 23.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.4, median 26
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v NE2025 week 21
32v BUF2025 week 20
31v LAC2025 week 18
42v JAX2025 week 16
32v LV2025 week 14
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 4+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 3.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v LV2025 week 10
-2v HOU2025 week 9
10v DAL2025 week 8
-1v NYG2025 week 7
0v NYJ2025 week 6
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 17+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 16.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.8, median 16.5
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v NE2025 week 21
46v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
33v KC2025 week 17
71v JAX2025 week 16
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 43+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 42.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 50.6, median 43
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v NE2025 week 21
53v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
40v KC2025 week 17
86v JAX2025 week 16
Travis Kelce TE · KC 43+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Travis KelceTE · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 71 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 42.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.8, median 38
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v LV2025 week 18
36v DEN2025 week 17
6v TEN2025 week 16
70v LAC2025 week 15
8v HOU2025 week 14
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 18+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 17.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.1, median 12
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v NE2025 week 22
49v LA2025 week 21
29v SF2025 week 20
36v SF2025 week 18
6v CAR2025 week 17
Rashee Rice WR · KC 58+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 57.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.9, median 48
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v LAC2025 week 15
34v HOU2025 week 14
92v DAL2025 week 13
141v IND2025 week 12
38v DEN2025 week 11
Xavier Worthy WR · KC 37+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Xavier WorthyWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 36.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.3, median 21
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v DEN2025 week 17
41v TEN2025 week 16
35v LAC2025 week 15
55v HOU2025 week 14
61v DAL2025 week 13
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 54+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 53.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.7, median 32
The line
53.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v TB2025 week 17
72v CIN2025 week 16
26v PIT2025 week 15
50v NYJ2025 week 14
40v NO2025 week 13
Receptions312
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 1+ receptionsLost0 receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 83% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +37pp

Under 0.5: -122price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

0v LAC2025 week 18
4v KC2025 week 17
4v JAX2025 week 16
6v GB2025 week 15
3v LV2025 week 14
Noah Gray TE · KC 2+ receptionsLost1 reception+133price shown when this board was published

Noah GrayTE · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 1.5: -175price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2025 week 18
1v DEN2025 week 17
0v TEN2025 week 16
1v HOU2025 week 14
3v IND2025 week 12
More players (10)
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 2+ receptionsWon2 receptions+179price shown when this board was published

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 1.5: -245price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v BUF2025 week 20
2v KC2025 week 17
2v JAX2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 14
3v WAS2025 week 13
Pat Bryant WR · DEN 3+ receptions+107price shown when this board was published

Pat BryantWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 2.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NE2025 week 21
3v BUF2025 week 20
4v LAC2025 week 18
5v JAX2025 week 16
4v LV2025 week 14
Travis Kelce TE · KC 4+ receptions-156price shown when this board was published

Travis KelceTE · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 3.5: +124price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2025 week 18
5v DEN2025 week 17
1v TEN2025 week 16
7v LAC2025 week 15
1v HOU2025 week 14
Rashee Rice WR · KC 6+ receptions-104price shown when this board was published

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 5.5: -120price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.6, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v LAC2025 week 15
4v HOU2025 week 14
8v DAL2025 week 13
8v IND2025 week 12
6v DEN2025 week 11
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 3+ receptions-107price shown when this board was published

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 2.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NE2025 week 21
5v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
5v KC2025 week 17
4v JAX2025 week 16
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2+ receptions+144price shown when this board was published

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 1.5: -198price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2025 week 10
1v HOU2025 week 9
2v DAL2025 week 8
1v NYG2025 week 7
0v NYJ2025 week 6
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptions-163price shown when this board was published

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2025 week 21
4v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
4v KC2025 week 17
6v JAX2025 week 16
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 4+ receptions+125price shown when this board was published

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 3.5: -167price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NE2025 week 22
4v LA2025 week 21
3v SF2025 week 20
4v SF2025 week 18
2v CAR2025 week 17
Xavier Worthy WR · KC 4+ receptions+115price shown when this board was published

Xavier WorthyWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 3.5: -151price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v DEN2025 week 17
2v TEN2025 week 16
2v LAC2025 week 15
3v HOU2025 week 14
4v DAL2025 week 13
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 5+ receptions-116price shown when this board was published

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 4.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

0v TB2025 week 17
5v CIN2025 week 16
2v PIT2025 week 15
5v NYJ2025 week 14
3v NO2025 week 13
Rushing yards17
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 19+ rushing yardsLost18 yds-113price shown when this board was published

RJ HarveyRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 18.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 27.8, median 23
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

37v NE2025 week 21
20v BUF2025 week 20
28v LAC2025 week 18
43v KC2025 week 17
50v JAX2025 week 16
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 50+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 36 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 49.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 39.9, median 33
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

77v LV2025 week 10
61v HOU2025 week 9
111v DAL2025 week 8
81v NYG2025 week 7
40v NYJ2025 week 6
More players (5)
Bo Nix QB · DEN 16+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 15.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.8, median 8
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

29v BUF2025 week 20
49v LAC2025 week 18
42v KC2025 week 17
11v JAX2025 week 16
10v GB2025 week 15
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 15+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Patrick MahomesQB · KCRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 14.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10, median 5
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v LAC2025 week 15
59v HOU2025 week 14
30v DAL2025 week 13
30v IND2025 week 12
3v DEN2025 week 11
Xavier Worthy WR · KC 10+ rushing yards+100price shown when this board was published

Xavier WorthyWR · KCRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.3, median 0
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v DEN2025 week 17
0v TEN2025 week 16
0v LAC2025 week 15
0v HOU2025 week 14
13v DAL2025 week 13
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 61+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 173 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 60.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 29.6, median 23
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

135v NE2025 week 22
62v LA2025 week 21
116v SF2025 week 20
97v SF2025 week 18
51v CAR2025 week 17
Brashard Smith RB · KC 4+ rushing yardsno price held

Brashard SmithRB · KCRushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

56v LV2025 week 18
0v DEN2025 week 17
0v TEN2025 week 16
1v LAC2025 week 15
7v HOU2025 week 14
Passing yards12
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 225+ passing yardsLost184 yds-115price shown when this board was published

Patrick MahomesQB · KCPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 184 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 78% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 224.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 283.9, median 279
The line
224.5

His last 5, passing yards

168v LAC2025 week 15
148v HOU2025 week 14
243v DAL2025 week 13
348v IND2025 week 12
249v DEN2025 week 11
Bo Nix QB · DEN 228+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 131 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 227.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 226.9, median 222
The line
227.5

His last 5, passing yards

279v BUF2025 week 20
124v LAC2025 week 18
175v KC2025 week 17
344v JAX2025 week 16
302v GB2025 week 15

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 1 NFL player props, every gameKansas City Chiefs season simulation and futures pricesDenver Broncos season simulation and futures pricesEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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