at
18 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on. Green marks a gap that clears our own publication bar.
DataPitch 37% · Market 54% · Gap -17pp
Under 15.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 16.3, median 9. The line is 15.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 25% · Market 54% · Gap -29pp
Under 52.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 35.9, median 27. The line is 52.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 54%
Our simulated receiving yards: average 45.9, median 40. The line is 36.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 33%
Our simulated receiving yards: average 58.2, median 51. The line is 69.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 25+ | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ MooreWR · BUF | ||||
| Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | ||||
| N. CollinsWR · HOU |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 60% · Market 43% · Gap +18pp
Under 2.5: -185 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.5, median 3. The line is 2.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 65% · Market 57% · Gap +9pp
Under 3.5: +100 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 5, median 5. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 52% · Market 44% · Gap +8pp
Our simulated receptions: average 2, median 2. The line is 1.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
DataPitch 60% · Market 54% · Gap +6pp
Under 1.5: -113 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.5, median 2. The line is 1.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 47% · Market 57% · Gap -10pp
Under 3.5: +100 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.7, median 3. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 29% · Market 44% · Gap -16pp
Under 2.5: -170 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 1.9, median 1. The line is 2.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 24% · Market 49% · Gap -25pp
Under 5.5: -136 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 4, median 4. The line is 5.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 28% · Market 53% · Gap -25pp
Under 3.5: -119 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.6, median 2. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU | ||||
| Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | ||||
| Josh PalmerWR · BUF | · | · | · | |
| Dawson KnoxTE · BUF | ||||
| Dalton SchultzTE · HOU | ||||
| James CookRB · BUF | ||||
| Nico CollinsWR · HOU | · | |||
| DJ MooreWR · BUF |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 58% · Market 54% · Gap +4pp
Under 74.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 85.9, median 81. The line is 74.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 48% · Market 53% · Gap -5pp
Under 29.5: -111 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 33, median 29. The line is 29.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 28% · Market 53% · Gap -25pp
Under 10.5: -120 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 8.2, median 4. The line is 10.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 17% · Market 53% · Gap -37pp
Under 53.5: -115 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 32.3, median 27. The line is 53.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 30+ | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB · BUF | ||||
| Josh AllenQB · BUF | ||||
| C.J. StroudQB · HOU | ||||
| David MontgomeryRB · HOU |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 69% · Market 53% · Gap +15pp
Under 218.5: -114 market price
Our simulated passing yards: average 262.6, median 256. The line is 218.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 34% · Market 53% · Gap -19pp
Under 220.5: -114 market price
Our simulated passing yards: average 197.6, median 190. The line is 220.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 210+ | 220+ | 221+ | 230+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB · HOU | ||||
| Josh AllenQB · BUF |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.
