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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Market line IND +3 · total 48.5

How our calls did

Final: Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards9
Keenan Allen WR · IND 28+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 27.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.9, median 31
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v NE2025 week 19
36v DEN2025 week 18
17v HOU2025 week 17
44v DAL2025 week 16
36v KC2025 week 15
Alec Pierce WR · IND 43+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Alec PierceWR · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 61 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 42.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 56, median 46
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

132v HOU2025 week 18
0v JAX2025 week 17
86v SF2025 week 16
16v SEA2025 week 15
80v JAX2025 week 14
More players (7)
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 19+ receiving yards-108price shown when this board was published

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 18.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.2, median 16
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v HOU2025 week 18
14v JAX2025 week 17
33v SF2025 week 16
14v SEA2025 week 15
0v JAX2025 week 14
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 7+ receiving yards-120price shown when this board was published

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 6.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.1, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PIT2025 week 18
0v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
0v CIN2025 week 15
8v PIT2025 week 14
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 65+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 150 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 64.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 62.3, median 55
The line
64.5

His last 5, receiving yards

138v PIT2025 week 18
30v GB2025 week 17
84v NE2025 week 16
68v CIN2025 week 15
124v PIT2025 week 14
Tyler Warren TE · IND 46+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 45.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.4, median 35
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v HOU2025 week 18
43v JAX2025 week 17
30v SF2025 week 16
19v SEA2025 week 15
15v JAX2025 week 14
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 26+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 25.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.1, median 16
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
23v PIT2025 week 14
0v CIN2025 week 13
10v MIN2025 week 10
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 36+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 49 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 35.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.6, median 22
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

14v PIT2025 week 18
28v GB2025 week 17
21v NE2025 week 16
18v CIN2025 week 15
9v PIT2025 week 14
Josh Downs WR · IND 47+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Josh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 37 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 46.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.8, median 28
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v HOU2025 week 18
34v JAX2025 week 17
65v SF2025 week 16
13v SEA2025 week 15
23v JAX2025 week 14
Receptions9
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 2+ receptions+171price shown when this board was published

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 1.5: -226price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.3, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PIT2025 week 18
0v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
0v CIN2025 week 15
1v PIT2025 week 14
Keenan Allen WR · IND 4+ receptions+118price shown when this board was published

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 3.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2025 week 19
7v DEN2025 week 18
1v HOU2025 week 17
5v DAL2025 week 16
5v KC2025 week 15
More players (7)
Alec Pierce WR · IND 3+ receptions-159price shown when this board was published

Alec PierceWR · INDReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 2.5: +122price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v HOU2025 week 18
0v JAX2025 week 17
4v SF2025 week 16
1v SEA2025 week 15
5v JAX2025 week 14
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 4+ receptions+114price shown when this board was published

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 3.5: -150price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PIT2025 week 18
4v GB2025 week 17
2v NE2025 week 16
2v CIN2025 week 15
1v PIT2025 week 14
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 3+ receptions-129price shown when this board was published

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 2.5: -101price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v HOU2025 week 18
3v JAX2025 week 17
3v SF2025 week 16
3v SEA2025 week 15
0v JAX2025 week 14
Josh Downs WR · IND 5+ receptions+118price shown when this board was published

Josh DownsWR · INDReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 4.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v HOU2025 week 18
2v JAX2025 week 17
5v SF2025 week 16
3v SEA2025 week 15
4v JAX2025 week 14
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 5+ receptions-159price shown when this board was published

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 4.5: +124price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v PIT2025 week 18
4v GB2025 week 17
7v NE2025 week 16
3v CIN2025 week 15
8v PIT2025 week 14
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 2+ receptions-185price shown when this board was published

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 65%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 1.5: +146price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
2v PIT2025 week 14
0v CIN2025 week 13
1v MIN2025 week 10
Tyler Warren TE · IND 5+ receptions-142price shown when this board was published

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 4.5: +109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v HOU2025 week 18
5v JAX2025 week 17
3v SF2025 week 16
3v SEA2025 week 15
2v JAX2025 week 14
Rushing yards16
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 79+ rushing yardsWon144 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 144 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 78.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 103.8, median 97
The line
78.5

His last 5, rushing yards

126v PIT2025 week 18
216v GB2025 week 17
128v NE2025 week 16
100v CIN2025 week 15
94v PIT2025 week 14
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 77+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 98 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 76.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 79.9, median 75
The line
76.5

His last 5, rushing yards

26v HOU2025 week 18
70v JAX2025 week 17
46v SF2025 week 16
87v SEA2025 week 15
74v JAX2025 week 14
More players (4)
Justice Hill RB · BAL 9+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Justice HillRB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 8.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.2, median 1
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v NYJ2025 week 12
1v MIN2025 week 10
2v MIA2025 week 9
2v CHI2025 week 8
16v LA2025 week 6
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 1+ rushing yards+130price shown when this board was published

Zay FlowersWR · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 0.5: -147price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.3, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v PIT2025 week 18
0v GB2025 week 17
18v NE2025 week 16
0v CIN2025 week 15
2v PIT2025 week 14
Daniel Jones QB · IND 13+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Daniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 12.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.4, median 5
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v JAX2025 week 14
1v HOU2025 week 13
16v KC2025 week 12
53v ATL2025 week 10
4v PIT2025 week 9
Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 41+ rushing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Lamar JacksonQB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 40.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 28, median 18
The line
40.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v PIT2025 week 18
7v NE2025 week 16
26v CIN2025 week 15
43v PIT2025 week 14
27v CIN2025 week 13
Passing yards2
Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 221+ passing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Lamar JacksonQB · BALPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 324 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 220.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 203.4, median 198
The line
220.5

His last 5, passing yards

222v PIT2025 week 18
101v NE2025 week 16
128v CIN2025 week 15
203v PIT2025 week 14
223v CIN2025 week 13
Daniel Jones QB · IND 234+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Daniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 166 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 233.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 205.5, median 199
The line
233.5

His last 5, passing yards

60v JAX2025 week 14
195v HOU2025 week 13
181v KC2025 week 12
196v ATL2025 week 10
313v PIT2025 week 9

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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