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21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on. Green marks a gap that clears our own publication bar.
DataPitch 48% · Market 54% · Gap -6pp
Under 14.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 20, median 14. The line is 14.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 44% · Market 54% · Gap -10pp
Under 4.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 8.9, median 1. The line is 4.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 35% · Market 54% · Gap -19pp
Under 56.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 49.3, median 38. The line is 56.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 29% · Market 54% · Gap -25pp
Under 65.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 50.4, median 42. The line is 65.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 28% · Market 54% · Gap -26pp
Under 48.5: -118 captured book price
Our simulated receiving yards: average 36.5, median 29. The line is 48.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. TaylorRB · IND | ||||
| A. PierceWR · IND | ||||
| Z. FlowersWR · BAL | ||||
| T. WarrenTE · IND |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 26% · Market 37% · Gap -11pp
Under 1.5: -232 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 1.1, median 1. The line is 1.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 26% · Market 46% · Gap -20pp
Under 4.5: -157 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.2, median 3. The line is 4.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 26% · Market 46% · Gap -20pp
Under 3.5: -154 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.4, median 2. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 38% · Market 60% · Gap -21pp
Under 2.5: +115 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.4, median 2. The line is 2.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 27% · Market 52% · Gap -25pp
Under 3.5: -121 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 2.6, median 2. The line is 3.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 29% · Market 57% · Gap -29pp
Under 4.5: +100 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.5, median 3. The line is 4.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 31% · Market 61% · Gap -30pp
Under 4.5: +120 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 3.6, median 3. The line is 4.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 34% · Market 66% · Gap -32pp
Under 1.5: +150 market price
Our simulated receptions: average 1.3, median 1. The line is 1.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | ||||
| Josh DownsWR · IND | ||||
| Mark AndrewsTE · BAL | ||||
| Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | ||||
| Alec PierceWR · IND | ||||
| Tyler WarrenTE · IND | ||||
| Zay FlowersWR · BAL | ||||
| Rashod BatemanWR · BAL |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 60% · Market 53% · Gap +7pp
Under 80.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 98, median 92. The line is 80.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 48% · Market 53% · Gap -5pp
Under 76.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 79.3, median 74. The line is 76.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 41% · Market 53% · Gap -12pp
Under 11.5: -115 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 12.8, median 9. The line is 11.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 36% · Market 52% · Gap -16pp
Under 9.5: -107 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 10.2, median 5. The line is 9.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 31% · Market 54% · Gap -23pp
Under 37.5: -114 market price
Our simulated rushing yards: average 30.8, median 24. The line is 37.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 30%
Our simulated rushing yards: average 3.2, median 0. The line is 0.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
| Player | 30+ | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | ||||
| Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | · | |||
| Daniel JonesQB · IND | ||||
| Justice HillRB · BAL | ||||
| Lamar JacksonQB · BAL |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
DataPitch 38% · Market 53% · Gap -15pp
Under 220.5: -114 market price
Our simulated passing yards: average 203.2, median 196. The line is 220.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
DataPitch 31% · Market 53% · Gap -22pp
Under 232.5: -115 market price
Our simulated passing yards: average 203, median 197. The line is 232.5.
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.
| Player | 210+ | 220+ | 230+ | 240+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | ||||
| Daniel JonesQB · IND |
Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.
