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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Market line LAC -8.5 · total 47.5

How our calls did

Final: Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14

Called before kickoff: 4. Won 2, void 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards210
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 19+ receiving yardsWon75 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 75 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 74% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 18.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.7, median 38
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
25v CHI2025 week 17
27v IND2025 week 16
17v TEN2025 week 15
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 11+ receiving yardsVoiddid not play+100price shown when this board was published

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 10.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.9, median 16
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v LA2025 week 18
0v CIN2025 week 17
91v ATL2025 week 16
3v HOU2025 week 15
0v LA2025 week 14
More players (8)
Trey McBride TE · ARI 57+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 95 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 56.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 65, median 59
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

65v LA2025 week 18
76v CIN2025 week 17
27v ATL2025 week 16
134v HOU2025 week 15
58v LA2025 week 14
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 13+ receiving yards-120price shown when this board was published

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 12.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16, median 11
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
10v DAL2025 week 16
4v KC2025 week 15
11v PHI2025 week 14
Tre Harris WR · LAC 27+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Tre HarrisWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 26.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.6, median 21
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v NE2025 week 19
28v DEN2025 week 18
8v HOU2025 week 17
54v DAL2025 week 16
49v KC2025 week 15
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 43+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 42.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.6, median 30
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v NE2025 week 19
98v HOU2025 week 17
104v DAL2025 week 16
8v PHI2025 week 14
23v LV2025 week 13
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 48+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 33 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 47.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.4, median 29
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CIN2025 week 17
14v ATL2025 week 16
69v TB2025 week 13
33v SEA2025 week 10
96v DAL2025 week 9
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 58+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 82 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 57.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.2, median 23
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v NE2025 week 19
31v HOU2025 week 17
43v DAL2025 week 16
20v KC2025 week 15
12v PHI2025 week 14
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 53+ receiving yardsno price held

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 56 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 62%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 71.4, median 65
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

99v LA2025 week 18
89v CIN2025 week 17
52v ATL2025 week 16
54v HOU2025 week 15
142v LA2025 week 14
David Njoku TE · LAC 14+ receiving yardsno price held

David NjokuTE · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.5, median 14
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v TEN2025 week 14
4v SF2025 week 13
7v BAL2025 week 11
21v NYJ2025 week 10
37v NE2025 week 8
Receptions29
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 3+ receptionsWon8 receptions+143price shown when this board was published

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 2.5: -190price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
1v CHI2025 week 17
3v IND2025 week 16
2v TEN2025 week 15
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 2+ receptionsVoiddid not play+120price shown when this board was published

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 1.5: -172price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LA2025 week 18
0v CIN2025 week 17
7v ATL2025 week 16
1v HOU2025 week 15
1v LA2025 week 14
More players (7)
Trey McBride TE · ARI 7+ receptions+121price shown when this board was published

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 9 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 6.5: -152price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.7, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

7v LA2025 week 18
10v CIN2025 week 17
4v ATL2025 week 16
12v HOU2025 week 15
5v LA2025 week 14
David Njoku TE · LAC 2+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

David NjokuTE · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 1.5: +100price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TEN2025 week 14
2v SF2025 week 13
1v BAL2025 week 11
2v NYJ2025 week 10
4v NE2025 week 8
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 3+ receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 2.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v NE2025 week 19
8v HOU2025 week 17
1v DAL2025 week 16
1v KC2025 week 15
2v PHI2025 week 14
Tre Harris WR · LAC 3+ receptions+100price shown when this board was published

Tre HarrisWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -130price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NE2025 week 19
2v DEN2025 week 18
1v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
3v KC2025 week 15
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 4+ receptions+104price shown when this board was published

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2025 week 19
5v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
2v PHI2025 week 14
3v LV2025 week 13
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 4+ receptions-143price shown when this board was published

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 3.5: +110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v CIN2025 week 17
1v ATL2025 week 16
6v TB2025 week 13
3v SEA2025 week 10
7v DAL2025 week 9
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 5+ receptions-135price shown when this board was published

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 4.5: +104price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2025 week 19
1v HOU2025 week 17
4v DAL2025 week 16
2v KC2025 week 15
1v PHI2025 week 14
Rushing yards5
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 11+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 10.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12, median 6
The line
10.5

His last 5, rushing yards

19v LA2025 week 18
0v CIN2025 week 17
5v ATL2025 week 16
6v HOU2025 week 15
22v LA2025 week 14
Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 30+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Tyler AllgeierRB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 61 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 29.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 24.6, median 18
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v NO2025 week 18
23v LA2025 week 17
79v ARI2025 week 16
18v TB2025 week 15
34v SEA2025 week 14
More players (3)
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 22+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 21.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.8, median 5
The line
21.5

His last 5, rushing yards

57v NE2025 week 19
37v HOU2025 week 17
42v DAL2025 week 16
0v KC2025 week 15
66v PHI2025 week 14
Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 27+ rushing yards-110price shown when this board was published

Keaton MitchellRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 26.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.5, median 3
The line
26.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v PIT2025 week 18
31v GB2025 week 17
13v NE2025 week 16
66v CIN2025 week 15
76v PIT2025 week 14
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 70+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 43 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 69.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31.4, median 22
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v NE2025 week 19
29v HOU2025 week 17
85v DAL2025 week 16
61v KC2025 week 15
56v PHI2025 week 14
Passing yards2
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 223+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 277 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 222.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 218.9, median 214
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

210v LA2025 week 18
191v CIN2025 week 17
188v ATL2025 week 16
235v HOU2025 week 15
263v LA2025 week 14
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 234+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 209 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 233.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 184.4, median 178
The line
233.5

His last 5, passing yards

120v NE2025 week 19
201v HOU2025 week 17
300v DAL2025 week 16
201v KC2025 week 15
106v PHI2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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