v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Donatas Rumsas runs average on cards, and 4 of the 6 rows we would back are Netherlands's.
208 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Filip KostićLM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 70% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Luka JovićST · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Noa LangLW · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 47% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Dušan TadićCAM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 45% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Micky van de VenLB · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 39% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -44pp
price too short
Micky van de VenLB · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 59% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
price too short
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7Fouls drawn
DataPitch 81% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
price too short
Filip KostićLM · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 58% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 49% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 39% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 54% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Luka JovićST · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 51% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 40% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 29% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12Fouls drawn
DataPitch 42% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Noa LangLW · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 41% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
price too short
Dušan TadićCAM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -47pp
price too short
Noa LangLW · #10Tackles
DataPitch 25% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
price too long
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17Tackles
DataPitch 17% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
price too long
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12Tackles
DataPitch 50% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14Tackles
DataPitch 26% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Luka JovićST · #8Tackles
DataPitch 19% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
price too long
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4Tackles
DataPitch 21% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
price too long
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7Tackles
DataPitch 45% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18Tackles
DataPitch 57% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Filip KostićLM · #11Tackles
DataPitch 58% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16Tackles
DataPitch 35% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22Tackles
DataPitch 47% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6Tackles
DataPitch 31% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 34% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Micky van de VenLB · #15Tackles
DataPitch 37% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Dušan TadićCAM · #10Tackles
DataPitch 17% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14Tackles
DataPitch 34% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14Shots
DataPitch 62% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17Shots
DataPitch 100% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luka JovićST · #8Shots
DataPitch 74% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6Shots
DataPitch 41% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16Shots
DataPitch 17% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7Shots
DataPitch 90% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Filip KostićLM · #11Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14Shots
DataPitch 86% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18Shots
DataPitch 76% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12Shots
DataPitch 50% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Noa LangLW · #10Shots
DataPitch 74% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22Shots
DataPitch 64% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Micky van de VenLB · #15Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dušan TadićCAM · #10Shots
DataPitch 30% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8Shots
DataPitch 44% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 43% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 28% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 7% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Micky van de VenLB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Filip KostićLM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dušan TadićCAM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luka JovićST · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 59% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 65% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Noa LangLW · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 39% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 3.5 cards.
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7To be booked
DataPitch 29% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +16pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Micky van de VenLB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 34% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Dušan TadićCAM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Luka JovićST · #8To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Srđan BabićLB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Noa LangLW · #10To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Filip KostićLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bart VerbruggenGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nemanja MaksimovićLDM · #5To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Vanja Milinković-SavićGK · #23To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Kosta NedeljkovićRB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 5% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Srđan BabićLB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap +20pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (195cm over a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Stefan DžodićLCB · #19Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 6%
Against this price: Gap +12pp
level in the air (190cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Micky van de VenLB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (193cm over a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
gives up height in the air (184cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7% · Market 3%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
level in the air (187cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
level in the air (190cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Filip KostićLM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
gives up height in the air (184cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
gives up height in the air (185cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
gives up height in the air (169cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nemanja MaksimovićLDM · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
level in the air (189cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Noa LangLW · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Dušan TadićCAM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Luka JovićST · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
level in the air (188cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (195cm over a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
gives up height in the air (182cm against a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Vanja Milinković-SavićGK · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 22%
wins headers against a smaller marker (202cm over a 189cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Bart VerbruggenGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (193cm over a 190cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Luka JovićST · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 4 logged matches
Micky van de VenLB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
Nemanja MaksimovićLDM · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Srđan BabićLB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Strahinja ErakovićRCB · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 3%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
no shots from outside the box in the 6 matches we have logged
Kosta NedeljkovićRB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
no shots from outside the box in the 6 matches we have logged
Jurriën TimberRCB · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
no shots from outside the box in the 3 matches we have logged
Stefan DžodićLCB · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2% · Market 6%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Mexx MeerdinkRW · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 10 logged matches
Andrija ŽivkovićRM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Nemanja GudeljRDM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 6 logged matches
Denzel DumfriesRB · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 12 logged matches
Filip KostićLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
Dušan TadićCAM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 13 logged matches
Virgil van DijkLCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
Noa LangLW · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
Johannes VeermanLCM · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 8 logged matches
Ryan GravenberchRCM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 11 logged matches
Crysencio SummervilleST · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 4 logged matches
Tijjani ReijndersCM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 4 logged matches
Bart VerbruggenGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
Vanja Milinković-SavićGK · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Donatas Rumsas will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 72 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.75/match · Away 2.17/match
4/match in tight games · 3.25/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.