v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Jair Marrufo runs lenient on cards, and 1 of the 1 rows we would back are Seattle Sounders's.
161 lines on 6 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Stephen AfrifaLS · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 99% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap +14pp
our number here has no precedent, so we stand it down
Albert RusnákCAM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Stuart HawkinsLCB · #39Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jackson RagenRCB · #25Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Moisés MosqueraRCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Emir KaricLB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Lasse JohnsenRCM · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Nouhou ToloLB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Zorhan BassongLCM · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 74% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Kalani Kossa-RienziRB · #85Fouls committed
DataPitch 48% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Calvin HarrisLM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
CapitaRM · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
Taylor CalheiraRS · #19Fouls committed
DataPitch 26% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
price too short
Jesús FerreiraRM · #9Shots
DataPitch 92% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Albert RusnákCAM · #11Shots
DataPitch 92% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Or BlorianLCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Stephen AfrifaLS · #17Shots
DataPitch 82% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Calvin HarrisLM · #14Shots
DataPitch 80% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
CapitaRM · #7Shots
DataPitch 73% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dejan JoveljićST · #9Shots
DataPitch 83% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Moisés MosqueraRCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 35% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Paul RothrockLM · #14Shots
DataPitch 76% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Emir KaricLB · #18Shots
DataPitch 15% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jackson RagenRCB · #25Shots
DataPitch 52% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lasse JohnsenRCM · #4Shots
DataPitch 35% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Hassani DotsonRDM · #31Shots
DataPitch 67% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Kalani Kossa-RienziRB · #85Shots
DataPitch 41% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jacob DavisRB · #8Shots
DataPitch 21% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Snyder BrunellLDM · #37Shots
DataPitch 48% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Zorhan BassongLCM · #22Shots
DataPitch 16% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Stuart HawkinsLCB · #39Shots
DataPitch 18% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -44pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Taylor CalheiraRS · #19Shots
DataPitch 45% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -45pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nouhou ToloLB · #5Shots
DataPitch 11% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -49pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jesús FerreiraRM · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 68% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lasse JohnsenRCM · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Calvin HarrisLM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 41% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Zorhan BassongLCM · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nouhou ToloLB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Moisés MosqueraRCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 7% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Emir KaricLB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 4% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
CapitaRM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 41% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Stephen AfrifaLS · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 48% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Kalani Kossa-RienziRB · #85Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dejan JoveljićST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 75% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jackson RagenRCB · #25Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Or BlorianLCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jacob DavisRB · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Stuart HawkinsLCB · #39Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Taylor CalheiraRS · #19Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Albert RusnákCAM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 50% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Hassani DotsonRDM · #31Shots on target
DataPitch 34% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Snyder BrunellLDM · #37Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Paul RothrockLM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 39% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 3.5 cards.
Paul RothrockLM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Moisés MosqueraRCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 32% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Stuart HawkinsLCB · #39To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jackson RagenRCB · #25To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Zorhan BassongLCM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jesús FerreiraRM · #9To be booked
DataPitch 7% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Hassani DotsonRDM · #31To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Snyder BrunellLDM · #37To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Stephen AfrifaLS · #17To be booked
DataPitch 6% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Calvin HarrisLM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Taylor CalheiraRS · #19To be booked
DataPitch 4% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nouhou ToloLB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jacob DavisRB · #8To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Kalani Kossa-RienziRB · #85To be booked
DataPitch 7% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
CapitaRM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 25%
no price
Jackson RagenRCB · #25Headed shot on target
DataPitch 40%
wins headers against a smaller marker (198cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Stuart HawkinsLCB · #39Headed shot on target
DataPitch 23%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Moisés MosqueraRCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Emir KaricLB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
level in the air (184cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Andrew ThomasGK · #26Andrew ThomasGK · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Dejan JoveljićST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Stefan ClevelandGK · #30Stefan ClevelandGK · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Stephen AfrifaLS · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Calvin HarrisLM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (183cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nouhou ToloLB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Kalani Kossa-RienziRB · #85Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jacob DavisRB · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Hassani DotsonRDM · #31Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Zorhan BassongLCM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Lasse JohnsenRCM · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Snyder BrunellLDM · #37Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jesús FerreiraRM · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Albert RusnákCAM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Paul RothrockLM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
CapitaRM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (171cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Dejan JoveljićST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 34%
shoots from range 1.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
Snyder BrunellLDM · #37Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 12 logged matches
Albert RusnákCAM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 12 logged matches
CapitaRM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 7 logged matches
Jacob DavisRB · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 6 logged matches
Calvin HarrisLM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 10 logged matches
Paul RothrockLM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
Nouhou ToloLB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 12 logged matches
Taylor CalheiraRS · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
Kalani Kossa-RienziRB · #85Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 12 logged matches
Stephen AfrifaLS · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 11 logged matches
Or BlorianLCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
Jesús FerreiraRM · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 5 logged matches
Lasse JohnsenRCM · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 11 logged matches
Hassani DotsonRDM · #31Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
Moisés MosqueraRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 7 logged matches
Jackson RagenRCB · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
Stuart HawkinsLCB · #39Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 12 logged matches
Emir KaricLB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 11 logged matches
Zorhan BassongLCM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 8 logged matches
Andrew ThomasGK · #26Andrew ThomasGK · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 12 matches we have logged
Stefan ClevelandGK · #30Stefan ClevelandGK · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Jair Marrufo will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
lenient, 79 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.41/match · Away 1.43/match
2.78/match in tight games · 2.31/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.