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New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Market line KC -9.5 · total 47.5

How our calls did

Final: New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35

Called before kickoff: 2. Lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:32 UK.

Every market we price

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Jalen Royals WR · KC 1+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Jalen RoyalsWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 80% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 0.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.8, median 15
The line
0.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v NYJ2026 week 9
4v DEN2026 week 8
0v SEA2026 week 7
24v LAC2026 week 6
0v LV2026 week 4
Noah Gray TE · KC 14+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Noah GrayTE · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 13.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 14
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v NYJ2026 week 9
15v DEN2026 week 8
44v SEA2026 week 7
53v LAC2026 week 6
17v LV2026 week 4
More players (8)
Xavier Worthy WR · KC 29+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Xavier WorthyWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 48 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 28.5: -104price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.4, median 29
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v NYJ2026 week 9
13v DEN2026 week 8
11v SEA2026 week 7
73v LAC2026 week 6
70v LV2026 week 4
Travis Kelce TE · KC 46+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Travis KelceTE · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 72 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 45.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.6, median 44
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

72v NYJ2026 week 9
67v DEN2026 week 8
44v SEA2026 week 7
53v LAC2026 week 6
15v LV2026 week 4
Rashee Rice WR · KC 60+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 49 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 59.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 63.6, median 57
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v NYJ2026 week 9
53v DEN2026 week 8
88v MIA2026 week 3
83v IND2026 week 2
19v DEN2026 week 1
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 18+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 41 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 17.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.6, median 16
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v NYJ2026 week 9
15v DEN2026 week 8
21v SEA2026 week 7
11v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 26+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 25.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.5, median 17
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v KC2026 week 9
19v LV2026 week 8
62v MIA2026 week 7
33v NE2026 week 6
24v CLE2026 week 5
DoubtfulBreece Hall RB · NYJ 17+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Breece HallRB · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 26 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Quadriceps - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Las Vegas

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 16.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.3, median 7
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v KC2026 week 9
23v DET2026 week 3
63v GB2026 week 2
16v TEN2026 week 1
18v NE2025 week 17
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 49+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 48.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.7, median 26
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v KC2026 week 9
142v LV2026 week 8
0v MIA2026 week 7
63v GB2026 week 2
60v TEN2026 week 1
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 60+ receiving yardsno price held

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.5, median 41
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

83v LV2026 week 8
26v MIA2026 week 7
44v NE2026 week 6
104v CLE2026 week 5
27v CHI2026 week 4
Receptions10
Jalen Royals WR · KC 1+ receptions-116price shown when this board was published

Jalen RoyalsWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 80% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 0.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYJ2026 week 9
1v DEN2026 week 8
0v SEA2026 week 7
2v LAC2026 week 6
0v LV2026 week 4
Noah Gray TE · KC 2+ receptions+125price shown when this board was published

Noah GrayTE · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 1.5: -161price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NYJ2026 week 9
2v DEN2026 week 8
3v SEA2026 week 7
3v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
More players (8)
Rashee Rice WR · KC 6+ receptions+116price shown when this board was published

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 5.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.5, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v NYJ2026 week 9
7v DEN2026 week 8
7v MIA2026 week 3
4v IND2026 week 2
2v DEN2026 week 1
Travis Kelce TE · KC 5+ receptions+115price shown when this board was published

Travis KelceTE · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 4.5: -147price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 9
5v DEN2026 week 8
4v SEA2026 week 7
4v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
Xavier Worthy WR · KC 4+ receptions+135price shown when this board was published

Xavier WorthyWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: -175price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v NYJ2026 week 9
3v DEN2026 week 8
3v SEA2026 week 7
7v LAC2026 week 6
4v LV2026 week 4
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 3+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 2.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 9
4v DEN2026 week 8
4v SEA2026 week 7
2v LAC2026 week 6
1v LV2026 week 4
DoubtfulBreece Hall RB · NYJ 3+ receptions+140price shown when this board was published

Breece HallRB · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Quadriceps - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Las Vegas

DataPitch 19% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 2.5: -182price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v KC2026 week 9
3v DET2026 week 3
5v GB2026 week 2
2v TEN2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 17
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 4+ receptions+118price shown when this board was published

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 3.5: -155price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v KC2026 week 9
3v LV2026 week 8
5v MIA2026 week 7
4v NE2026 week 6
3v CLE2026 week 5
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 4+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 3.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v KC2026 week 9
7v LV2026 week 8
0v MIA2026 week 7
6v GB2026 week 2
3v TEN2026 week 1
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 5+ receptionsno price held

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LV2026 week 8
2v MIA2026 week 7
4v NE2026 week 6
7v CLE2026 week 5
3v CHI2026 week 4
Rushing yards16
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 35+ rushing yardsLost33 yds-112price shown when this board was published

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 33 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 34.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 47.6, median 41
The line
34.5

His last 5, rushing yards

33v KC2026 week 9
147v LV2026 week 8
104v MIA2026 week 7
78v NE2026 week 6
116v CLE2026 week 5
DoubtfulBreece Hall RB · NYJ 39+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Breece HallRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 61 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Quadriceps - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Las Vegas

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 38.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 48.5, median 43
The line
38.5

His last 5, rushing yards

61v KC2026 week 9
32v DET2026 week 3
29v GB2026 week 2
102v TEN2026 week 1
111v NE2025 week 17
More players (4)
Isaiah Davis RB · NYJ 25+ rushing yards+950price shown when this board was published

Isaiah DavisRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 9% · Market 10%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.3, median 1
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v KC2026 week 9
15v LV2026 week 8
5v MIA2026 week 7
16v NE2026 week 6
8v CLE2026 week 5
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 7+ rushing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 8 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 6.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5, median 0
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

8v KC2026 week 9
4v LV2026 week 8
0v MIA2026 week 7
-1v NE2026 week 6
7v CLE2026 week 5
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 12+ rushing yards-117price shown when this board was published

Patrick MahomesQB · KCRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 8 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 17% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 11.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.8, median 0
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

8v NYJ2026 week 9
6v DEN2026 week 8
14v SEA2026 week 7
16v LAC2026 week 6
0v LV2026 week 4
Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 91+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 102 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 90.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 50.2, median 43
The line
90.5

His last 5, rushing yards

102v NYJ2026 week 9
69v DEN2026 week 8
36v SEA2026 week 7
128v LAC2026 week 6
177v LV2026 week 4
Passing yards12
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 246+ passing yardsLost242 yds-110price shown when this board was published

Patrick MahomesQB · KCPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 242 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 79% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 245.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 315.9, median 311
The line
245.5

His last 5, passing yards

228v NYJ2026 week 9
309v DEN2026 week 8
163v SEA2026 week 7
272v LAC2026 week 6
210v LV2026 week 4
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 212+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 165 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 211.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 187.8, median 182
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

123v KC2026 week 9
273v LV2026 week 8
271v MIA2026 week 7
227v NE2026 week 6
142v CLE2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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