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Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · Market line NE -3 · total 44.5

How our calls did

Final: Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27

Called before kickoff: 5. Won 2, lost 3.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:32 UK.

Every market we price

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards26
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 24+ receiving yardsWon46 yds-111price shown when this board was published

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 46 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 23.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.9, median 38
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

46v GB2026 week 9
8v MIA2026 week 8
93v CHI2026 week 7
0v NYJ2026 week 6
21v LV2026 week 5
Hunter Henry TE · NE 38+ receiving yardsLost35 yds-111price shown when this board was published

Hunter HenryTE · NEReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 35 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 37.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.2, median 53
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v GB2026 week 9
30v MIA2026 week 8
71v CHI2026 week 7
48v NYJ2026 week 6
44v LV2026 week 5
More players (4)
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 46+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 45.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.2, median 37.5
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v NE2026 week 9
53v CAR2026 week 8
48v DET2026 week 7
37v DAL2026 week 6
64v CHI2026 week 5
DoubtfulChristian Watson WR · GB 71+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 171 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ribs - Questionable for Week 9 at New England

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 70.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.7, median 49
The line
70.5

His last 5, receiving yards

171v NE2026 week 9
113v CAR2026 week 8
57v DET2026 week 7
64v DAL2026 week 6
143v CHI2026 week 5
Josh Jacobs RB · GB 21+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Josh JacobsRB · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 20.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15, median 10
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v NE2026 week 9
13v CAR2026 week 8
55v DET2026 week 7
3v CHI2025 week 19
0v BAL2025 week 17
Matthew Golden WR · GB 68+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 164 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 67.5: -103price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.2, median 29
The line
67.5

His last 5, receiving yards

164v NE2026 week 9
79v CAR2026 week 8
39v DET2026 week 7
104v DAL2026 week 6
123v CHI2026 week 5
Receptions26
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 4+ receptionsLost3 receptions-116price shown when this board was published

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 3.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v GB2026 week 9
3v MIA2026 week 8
5v CHI2026 week 7
0v NYJ2026 week 6
3v LV2026 week 5
Hunter Henry TE · NE 4+ receptionsLost3 receptions-116price shown when this board was published

Hunter HenryTE · NEReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 3.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v GB2026 week 9
3v MIA2026 week 8
7v CHI2026 week 7
4v NYJ2026 week 6
3v LV2026 week 5
More players (4)
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 5+ receptions-114price shown when this board was published

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 4.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NE2026 week 9
6v CAR2026 week 8
4v DET2026 week 7
5v DAL2026 week 6
5v CHI2026 week 5
DoubtfulChristian Watson WR · GB 5+ receptions-111price shown when this board was published

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ribs - Questionable for Week 9 at New England

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 4.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v NE2026 week 9
8v CAR2026 week 8
5v DET2026 week 7
3v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
Josh Jacobs RB · GB 4+ receptions-105price shown when this board was published

Josh JacobsRB · GBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 17% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 3.5: -125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v NE2026 week 9
6v CAR2026 week 8
5v DET2026 week 7
1v CHI2025 week 19
1v BAL2025 week 17
Matthew Golden WR · GB 6+ receptions+110price shown when this board was published

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 6% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 5.5: -141price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

10v NE2026 week 9
7v CAR2026 week 8
6v DET2026 week 7
6v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
Rushing yards6
DoubtfulMarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 9+ rushing yards-109price shown when this board was published

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his rushing yards line fell 11.5 to 7.5 between the open and the close, 35% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 78% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 8.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 27, median 22
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v CAR2026 week 8
20v DET2026 week 7
10v DAL2026 week 6
31v CHI2026 week 5
13v TB2026 week 4
Josh Jacobs RB · GB 48+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Josh JacobsRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 47.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 50.9, median 45
The line
47.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v NE2026 week 9
39v CAR2026 week 8
36v DET2026 week 7
55v CHI2025 week 19
3v BAL2025 week 17
More players (4)
Corey Kiner RB · NE 22+ rushing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Corey KinerRB · NERushing yards

How it ended: Won, 55 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 21.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.5, median 12
The line
21.5

His last 5, rushing yards

55v GB2026 week 9
38v MIA2026 week 8
13v CHI2026 week 7
57v NYJ2026 week 6
52v LV2026 week 5
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 57+ rushing yards-110price shown when this board was published

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NERushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 56.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.3, median 29
The line
56.5

His last 5, rushing yards

32v GB2026 week 9
82v MIA2026 week 8
22v CHI2026 week 7
36v NYJ2026 week 6
64v LV2026 week 5
Drake Maye QB · NE 26+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Drake MayeQB · NERushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 25.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.4, median 8
The line
25.5

His last 5, rushing yards

3v GB2026 week 9
5v MIA2026 week 8
26v CHI2026 week 7
24v NYJ2026 week 6
25v LV2026 week 5
Efton Chism III WR · NE 1+ rushing yards+100price shown when this board was published

Efton Chism IIIWR · NERushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 7% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.7, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v GB2026 week 9
0v MIA2026 week 8
0v CHI2026 week 7
0v NYJ2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 5
Passing yards11
Drake Maye QB · NE 231+ passing yardsWon299 yds-116price shown when this board was published

Drake MayeQB · NEPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 299 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 230.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 251.2, median 245
The line
230.5

His last 5, passing yards

272v GB2026 week 9
182v MIA2026 week 8
310v CHI2026 week 7
235v NYJ2026 week 6
371v LV2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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