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Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Market line CAR +3 · total 44.5

How our calls did

Final: Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21

Called before kickoff: 6. Won 5, lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:32 UK.

Every market we price

32 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards212
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 34+ receiving yardsWon45 yds-115price shown when this board was published

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 45 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 83% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 33.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 74, median 68
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

45v CAR2026 week 9
53v KC2026 week 8
45v ARI2026 week 7
19v SEA2026 week 6
18v LAC2026 week 5
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 7+ receiving yardsWon15 yds-115price shown when this board was published

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 15 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +22pp

Under 6.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.4, median 19
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v CAR2026 week 9
30v KC2026 week 8
0v ARI2026 week 7
0v SF2026 week 4
10v KC2026 week 1
More players (10)
Marvin Mims Jr. WR · DEN 10+ receiving yards-110price shown when this board was published

Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 91% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +39pp

Under 9.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.2, median 48
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CAR2026 week 9
10v KC2026 week 8
53v ARI2026 week 7
13v SEA2026 week 6
6v LAC2026 week 5
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 4+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 71% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 3.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.3, median 9
The line
3.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v CAR2026 week 9
0v KC2026 week 8
0v ARI2026 week 7
5v SEA2026 week 6
6v LAC2026 week 5
John Metchie III WR · CAR 14+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

John Metchie IIIWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 13.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.9, median 16
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v DEN2026 week 9
14v GB2026 week 8
20v TB2026 week 7
24v PHI2026 week 6
37v DET2026 week 4
Darren Waller TE · CAR 19+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Darren WallerTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 90 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 18.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.3, median 21
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

90v DEN2026 week 9
11v GB2026 week 8
50v TB2026 week 7
0v PHI2026 week 6
36v DET2026 week 4
DoubtfulJaylen Waddle WR · DEN 48+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Chest - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Kansas City

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 47.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.2, median 49
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v CAR2026 week 9
39v KC2026 week 8
48v ARI2026 week 7
24v SEA2026 week 6
19v LAC2026 week 5
Mitchell Evans TE · CAR 8+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Mitchell EvansTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 7.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 10.2, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v DEN2026 week 9
22v GB2026 week 8
39v TB2026 week 7
0v PHI2026 week 6
8v DET2026 week 4
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 17+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 24 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 16.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14, median 10
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v DEN2026 week 9
19v GB2026 week 8
8v TB2026 week 7
46v PHI2026 week 6
12v DET2026 week 4
Jalen Coker WR · CAR 51+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 50.5: -106price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40, median 35
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v DEN2026 week 9
36v GB2026 week 8
9v TB2026 week 7
97v PHI2026 week 6
18v CLE2026 week 3
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 18+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 17.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13, median 9
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v DEN2026 week 9
38v GB2026 week 8
27v TB2026 week 7
1v PHI2026 week 6
7v DET2026 week 4
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 62+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 56 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 61.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.7, median 32
The line
61.5

His last 5, receiving yards

56v DEN2026 week 9
58v GB2026 week 8
40v TB2026 week 7
86v PHI2026 week 6
192v DET2026 week 4
Receptions312
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptionsWon5 receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 73% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 3.5: -160price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.4, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CAR2026 week 9
4v KC2026 week 8
3v ARI2026 week 7
2v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
Adam Trautman TE · DEN 1+ receptionsWon2 receptions-213price shown when this board was published

Adam TrautmanTE · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 85% · Market 68%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 0.5: +160price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CAR2026 week 9
2v KC2026 week 8
0v ARI2026 week 7
0v SF2026 week 4
2v KC2026 week 1
More players (10)
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 1+ receptionsWon1 reception-200price shown when this board was published

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 67%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 0.5: +155price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2026 week 9
0v KC2026 week 8
0v ARI2026 week 7
3v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
Marvin Mims Jr. WR · DEN 2+ receptions+143price shown when this board was published

Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 88% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap +47pp

Under 1.5: -185price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2026 week 9
2v KC2026 week 8
2v ARI2026 week 7
2v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
John Metchie III WR · CAR 2+ receptions-139price shown when this board was published

John Metchie IIIWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 1.5: +112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DEN2026 week 9
3v GB2026 week 8
2v TB2026 week 7
2v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
Darren Waller TE · CAR 2+ receptions-150price shown when this board was published

Darren WallerTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 60% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 1.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

8v DEN2026 week 9
1v GB2026 week 8
1v TB2026 week 7
0v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
Mitchell Evans TE · CAR 2+ receptions+181price shown when this board was published

Mitchell EvansTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 1.5: -238price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DEN2026 week 9
2v GB2026 week 8
2v TB2026 week 7
0v PHI2026 week 6
1v DET2026 week 4
DoubtfulJaylen Waddle WR · DEN 5+ receptions+105price shown when this board was published

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Chest - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Kansas City

DataPitch 34% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 4.5: -131price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2026 week 9
3v KC2026 week 8
4v ARI2026 week 7
4v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 3+ receptions+149price shown when this board was published

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -192price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DEN2026 week 9
1v GB2026 week 8
1v TB2026 week 7
4v PHI2026 week 6
4v DET2026 week 4
Jalen Coker WR · CAR 5+ receptions-111price shown when this board was published

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 4.5: -120price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DEN2026 week 9
2v GB2026 week 8
1v TB2026 week 7
6v PHI2026 week 6
2v CLE2026 week 3
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3+ receptions-141price shown when this board was published

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 25% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 2.5: +110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DEN2026 week 9
7v GB2026 week 8
4v TB2026 week 7
1v PHI2026 week 6
1v DET2026 week 4
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 6+ receptions+121price shown when this board was published

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 9% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 5.5: -158price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DEN2026 week 9
6v GB2026 week 8
4v TB2026 week 7
6v PHI2026 week 6
14v DET2026 week 4
Rushing yards16
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 25+ rushing yardsLost18 yds-114price shown when this board was published

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 24.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 43.4, median 37
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v CAR2026 week 9
13v KC2026 week 8
23v ARI2026 week 7
41v SEA2026 week 6
68v LAC2026 week 5
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 70+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Chuba HubbardRB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 79 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 69.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 69.3, median 64
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

79v DEN2026 week 9
81v GB2026 week 8
33v TB2026 week 7
120v PHI2026 week 6
122v DET2026 week 4
More players (4)
Trevor Etienne RB · CAR 7+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Trevor EtienneRB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 6.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.2, median 2
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v DEN2026 week 9
1v GB2026 week 8
8v TB2026 week 7
-1v PHI2026 week 6
4v LA2025 week 19
Bo Nix QB · DEN 13+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 12.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.7, median 6
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v CAR2026 week 9
4v KC2026 week 8
73v ARI2026 week 7
2v SEA2026 week 6
10v LAC2026 week 5
Bryce Young QB · CAR 9+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Bryce YoungQB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 8.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.1, median 0
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

13v DEN2026 week 9
0v GB2026 week 8
9v TB2026 week 7
6v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 56+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Jonah ColemanRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 57 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 17% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 55.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31.3, median 24
The line
55.5

His last 5, rushing yards

57v CAR2026 week 9
41v KC2026 week 8
54v ARI2026 week 7
39v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
Passing yards2
Bo Nix QB · DEN 211+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 237 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 210.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 209.8, median 204
The line
210.5

His last 5, passing yards

230v CAR2026 week 9
219v KC2026 week 8
218v ARI2026 week 7
94v SEA2026 week 6
118v LAC2026 week 5
Bryce Young QB · CAR 226+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Bryce YoungQB · CARPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 276 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 225.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 176.7, median 171
The line
225.5

His last 5, passing yards

257v DEN2026 week 9
176v GB2026 week 8
131v TB2026 week 7
273v PHI2026 week 6
318v DET2026 week 4

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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