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Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NO -4.5 · total 43.5

How our calls did

Final: Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23

Called before kickoff: 2. Lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:26 UK.

Every market we price

20 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards16
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 44+ receiving yardsLost42 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 42 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 43.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 66.5, median 62
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

42v NO2026 week 9
154v PIT2026 week 8
91v TEN2026 week 7
9v BAL2026 week 6
4v NYJ2026 week 5
Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 15+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Jerry JeudyWR · CLEReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 37 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 93% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +39pp

Under 14.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.5, median 52
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v NO2026 week 9
0v PIT2026 week 8
21v TEN2026 week 7
69v BAL2026 week 6
19v NYJ2026 week 5
More players (4)
DoubtfulJuwan Johnson TE · NO 26+ receiving yards-117price shown when this board was published

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 34 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 67% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 25.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.5, median 38
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

34v CLE2026 week 9
7v PIT2026 week 7
0v NYG2026 week 6
16v MIN2026 week 5
59v ATL2026 week 4
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 36+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 35.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.8, median 39
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v CLE2026 week 9
54v PIT2026 week 7
42v NYG2026 week 6
26v MIN2026 week 5
54v ATL2026 week 4
Chris Olave WR · NO 72+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 98 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 71.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 77.7, median 73
The line
71.5

His last 5, receiving yards

98v CLE2026 week 9
56v PIT2026 week 7
43v NYG2026 week 6
46v MIN2026 week 5
116v ATL2026 week 4
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 19+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 18.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23, median 18
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v CLE2026 week 9
57v PIT2026 week 7
35v NYG2026 week 6
-6v MIN2026 week 5
35v ATL2026 week 4
Receptions16
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 5+ receptionsLost2 receptions-105price shown when this board was published

Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 74% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 4.5: -125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.6, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NO2026 week 9
10v PIT2026 week 8
6v TEN2026 week 7
1v BAL2026 week 6
1v NYJ2026 week 5
Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 2+ receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Jerry JeudyWR · CLEReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 90% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +44pp

Under 1.5: -152price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NO2026 week 9
0v PIT2026 week 8
4v TEN2026 week 7
4v BAL2026 week 6
3v NYJ2026 week 5
More players (4)
DoubtfulJuwan Johnson TE · NO 3+ receptions-152price shown when this board was published

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 71% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 2.5: +118price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 9
1v PIT2026 week 7
0v NYG2026 week 6
4v MIN2026 week 5
6v ATL2026 week 4
Chris Olave WR · NO 6+ receptions-125price shown when this board was published

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 5.5: -103price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.2, median 6
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v CLE2026 week 9
6v PIT2026 week 7
4v NYG2026 week 6
4v MIN2026 week 5
8v ATL2026 week 4
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 4+ receptions-122price shown when this board was published

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 3.5: -106price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 9
5v PIT2026 week 7
3v NYG2026 week 6
4v MIN2026 week 5
6v ATL2026 week 4
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 4+ receptions+105price shown when this board was published

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 3.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CLE2026 week 9
7v PIT2026 week 7
2v NYG2026 week 6
2v MIN2026 week 5
5v ATL2026 week 4
Rushing yards6
Kendre Miller RB · NO 38+ rushing yards-120price shown when this board was published

Kendre MillerRB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 37.5: -121price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.2, median 35
The line
37.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v PIT2026 week 7
70v NYG2026 week 6
30v MIN2026 week 5
9v ATL2026 week 4
14v LV2026 week 3
Dylan Sampson RB · CLE 16+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Dylan SampsonRB · CLERushing yards

How it ended: Won, 21 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 15.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19.4, median 14
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

21v NO2026 week 9
7v PIT2026 week 8
45v TEN2026 week 7
0v JAX2026 week 1
32v CIN2025 week 18
More players (4)
Alvin Kamara RB · NO 40+ rushing yards-110price shown when this board was published

Alvin KamaraRB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 39.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 38.2, median 32
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

32v CLE2026 week 9
5v PIT2026 week 7
34v NYG2026 week 6
12v MIN2026 week 5
23v ATL2026 week 4
Tyler Shough QB · NO 15+ rushing yards-119price shown when this board was published

Tyler ShoughQB · NORushing yards

How it ended: Won, 51 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 14.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.5, median 6
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

51v CLE2026 week 9
7v PIT2026 week 7
32v NYG2026 week 6
0v MIN2026 week 5
5v ATL2026 week 4
Shedeur Sanders QB · CLE 17+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Shedeur SandersQB · CLERushing yards

How it ended: Won, 28 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 16.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10, median 4
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

28v NO2026 week 9
0v PIT2026 week 8
0v CAR2026 week 3
26v CIN2025 week 18
20v PIT2025 week 17
Deshaun Watson QB · CLE 23+ rushing yardsno price held

Deshaun WatsonQB · CLERushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.2, median 20
The line
22.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v PIT2026 week 8
19v TEN2026 week 7
29v BAL2026 week 6
40v NYJ2026 week 5
22v PIT2026 week 4
Passing yards2
Tyler Shough QB · NO 227+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 265 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 226.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 230.7, median 227
The line
226.5

His last 5, passing yards

236v CLE2026 week 9
263v PIT2026 week 7
144v NYG2026 week 6
87v MIN2026 week 5
270v ATL2026 week 4
Shedeur Sanders QB · CLE 179+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Shedeur SandersQB · CLEPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 297 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 178.5: +102price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 168.4, median 162
The line
178.5

His last 5, passing yards

260v NO2026 week 9
2v PIT2026 week 8
0v CAR2026 week 3
82v CIN2025 week 18
184v PIT2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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