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Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Week 6 · Mon Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET · Market line SF -7.5 · total 50.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game is strong enough to back tonight. Every market we price is still below, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themChristian McCaffreyRB · SF40+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK.

Every market we price

13 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards3
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 40+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 39.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.4, median 44
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v SEA2026 week 5
18v DEN2026 week 4
41v ARI2026 week 3
43v MIA2026 week 2
20v LA2026 week 1
George Kittle TE · SF 64+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 63.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 65, median 59
The line
63.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v SEA2026 week 5
70v DEN2026 week 4
82v ARI2026 week 3
80v MIA2026 week 2
12v LA2026 week 1
More players (1)
Mike Evans WR · SF 74+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 13% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 73.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.9, median 33
The line
73.5

His last 5, receiving yards

113v SEA2026 week 5
76v DEN2026 week 4
34v ARI2026 week 3
54v MIA2026 week 2
49v LA2026 week 1
Receptions3
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptions-124consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 4.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.3, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2026 week 5
3v DEN2026 week 4
4v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
5v LA2026 week 1
George Kittle TE · SF 6+ receptions-101consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 5.5: -134consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.6, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SEA2026 week 5
4v DEN2026 week 4
6v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
2v LA2026 week 1
More players (1)
Mike Evans WR · SF 6+ receptions-140consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceptions

DataPitch 8% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -50pp

Under 5.5: +107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v SEA2026 week 5
5v DEN2026 week 4
3v ARI2026 week 3
3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
Rushing yards5
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 60+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 59.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 58.9, median 53
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v SEA2026 week 5
52v DEN2026 week 4
75v ARI2026 week 3
23v MIA2026 week 2
68v LA2026 week 1
Brock Purdy QB · SF 18+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 17.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.4, median 8
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v SEA2026 week 5
29v DEN2026 week 4
34v ARI2026 week 3
30v MIA2026 week 2
29v LA2026 week 1
More players (3)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 40+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 39.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 30, median 23
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

82v NYG2026 week 5
15v IND2026 week 4
36v SEA2026 week 3
43v DAL2026 week 2
63v PHI2026 week 1
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 36+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jayden DanielsQB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 24.6, median 18
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

103v NYG2026 week 5
69v DAL2026 week 2
31v PHI2026 week 1
16v MIN2025 week 14
51v SEA2025 week 9
Rachaad White RB · WAS 21+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 20.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.2, median 6
The line
20.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v NYG2026 week 5
35v SEA2026 week 3
43v DAL2026 week 2
22v PHI2026 week 1
23v CAR2025 week 18
Passing yards2
Brock Purdy QB · SF 247+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 246.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 240.6, median 235
The line
246.5

His last 5, passing yards

177v SEA2026 week 5
218v DEN2026 week 4
297v ARI2026 week 3
287v MIA2026 week 2
205v LA2026 week 1
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 203+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jayden DanielsQB · WASPassing yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 202.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 164.3, median 160
The line
202.5

His last 5, passing yards

178v NYG2026 week 5
96v DAL2026 week 2
163v PHI2026 week 1
77v MIN2025 week 14
133v SEA2025 week 9

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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