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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Market line IND -7 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

7 of the 25 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and 5 of them are Indianapolis Colts players.

Strongest of themTony PollardRB · TEN50+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 7. Pending 7.

25 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards210
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 19+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 65% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 18.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.5, median 26
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v PIT2026 week 5
2v WAS2026 week 4
4v HOU2026 week 3
40v KC2026 week 2
23v BAL2026 week 1
Keenan Allen WR · IND 40+ receiving yards-108consensus market price

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 60% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 39.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 51.4, median 47
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

45v PIT2026 week 5
63v HOU2026 week 3
5v KC2026 week 2
32v BAL2026 week 1
25v NE2025 week 19
More players (8)
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 15+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 14.5: -106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.8, median 27
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v HOU2026 week 5
13v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
35v PHI2026 week 2
13v HOU2025 week 11
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 16+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 15.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30, median 24
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v HOU2026 week 5
22v BAL2026 week 4
11v NYG2026 week 3
69v PHI2026 week 2
11v NYJ2026 week 1
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 15+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 14.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.1, median 16
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v HOU2026 week 5
-1v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
29v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 10+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 9.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.3, median 10
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v HOU2026 week 5
2v BAL2026 week 4
22v NYG2026 week 3
1v PHI2026 week 2
-1v NYJ2026 week 1
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 18+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 17.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.4, median 17
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v HOU2026 week 5
5v BAL2026 week 4
14v NYG2026 week 3
13v PHI2026 week 2
28v NYJ2026 week 1
Tyler Warren TE · IND 56+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 55.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.9, median 53
The line
55.5

His last 5, receiving yards

83v PIT2026 week 5
41v WAS2026 week 4
55v HOU2026 week 3
21v KC2026 week 2
13v BAL2026 week 1
Josh Downs WR · IND 47+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Josh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 46.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.2, median 44
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v PIT2026 week 5
16v WAS2026 week 4
77v HOU2026 week 3
72v KC2026 week 2
37v BAL2026 week 1
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 34+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 33.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.7, median 27
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v HOU2026 week 5
19v BAL2026 week 4
57v NYG2026 week 3
9v PHI2026 week 2
38v NYJ2026 week 1
Receptions310
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 3+ receptions-135consensus market price

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions

DataPitch 64% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 2.5: +101consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v PIT2026 week 5
1v WAS2026 week 4
2v HOU2026 week 3
4v KC2026 week 2
3v BAL2026 week 1
Josh Downs WR · IND 4+ receptions-163consensus market price

Josh DownsWR · INDReceptions

DataPitch 66% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 3.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v PIT2026 week 5
3v WAS2026 week 4
5v HOU2026 week 3
7v KC2026 week 2
2v BAL2026 week 1
More players (8)
Keenan Allen WR · IND 4+ receptions-120consensus market price

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 3.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v PIT2026 week 5
6v HOU2026 week 3
1v KC2026 week 2
6v BAL2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 19
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 2+ receptions+121consensus market price

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 1.5: -167consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v HOU2026 week 5
1v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
1v HOU2025 week 11
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 2+ receptions-102consensus market price

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 61% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 1.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v HOU2026 week 5
1v BAL2026 week 4
1v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3+ receptions-105consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 2.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

9v HOU2026 week 5
1v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
2v NYJ2026 week 1
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 3+ receptions+115consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 2.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v HOU2026 week 5
1v BAL2026 week 4
2v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
4v NYJ2026 week 1
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2+ receptions-132consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 48% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v HOU2026 week 5
2v BAL2026 week 4
4v NYG2026 week 3
1v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
Tyler Warren TE · IND 6+ receptions-115consensus market price

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 5.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.3, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v PIT2026 week 5
5v WAS2026 week 4
9v HOU2026 week 3
6v KC2026 week 2
3v BAL2026 week 1
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 4+ receptions-163consensus market price

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 3.5: +124consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v HOU2026 week 5
3v BAL2026 week 4
7v NYG2026 week 3
1v PHI2026 week 2
5v NYJ2026 week 1
Rushing yards24
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 50+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 73% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 49.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 77.6, median 71
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v HOU2026 week 5
48v BAL2026 week 4
74v NYG2026 week 3
64v PHI2026 week 2
35v NYJ2026 week 1
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 13+ rushing yards-109consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 59% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 12.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.7, median 17
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v HOU2026 week 5
7v BAL2026 week 4
5v NYG2026 week 3
41v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
More players (2)
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 90+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 89.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 84.6, median 79
The line
89.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v PIT2026 week 5
95v WAS2026 week 4
68v HOU2026 week 3
92v KC2026 week 2
98v BAL2026 week 1
Cam Ward QB · TEN 12+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Cam WardQB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 11.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.6, median 5
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v HOU2026 week 5
27v BAL2026 week 4
2v NYG2026 week 3
7v PHI2026 week 2
21v NYJ2026 week 1
Passing yards1
Cam Ward QB · TEN 201+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Cam WardQB · TENPassing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 200.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 190, median 184
The line
200.5

His last 5, passing yards

130v HOU2026 week 5
214v BAL2026 week 4
181v NYG2026 week 3
169v PHI2026 week 2
127v NYJ2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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