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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Market line TB +3 · total 40.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 25 rows we price on this game is strong tonight.

Strongest of themChris Godwin Jr.WR · TB3+ receptions-131consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK. 3 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

25 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 10+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Kenny GainwellRB · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 61%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.7, median 14
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v DAL2026 week 5
22v GB2026 week 4
14v MIN2026 week 3
5v CLE2026 week 2
3v CIN2026 week 1
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 37+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 57%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.5, median 43
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

38v DAL2026 week 5
13v GB2026 week 4
62v MIN2026 week 3
16v CLE2026 week 2
63v CIN2026 week 1
More players (8)
Bucky Irving RB · TB 13+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.3, median 15
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v DAL2026 week 5
0v GB2026 week 4
12v MIN2026 week 3
1v CLE2026 week 2
48v CIN2026 week 1
Cade Otton TE · TB 34+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Cade OttonTE · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 52%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.3, median 36
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v DAL2026 week 5
37v GB2026 week 4
56v MIN2026 week 3
38v CLE2026 week 2
26v CIN2026 week 1
DoubtfulRico Dowdle RB · PIT 11+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Toe - Questionable for Week 6 at Tampa Bay

DataPitch 52%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16, median 11
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v NE2026 week 2
6v ATL2026 week 1
6v LA2025 week 19
20v TB2025 week 18
4v SEA2025 week 17
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 31+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 50%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.1, median 31
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v DAL2026 week 5
31v GB2026 week 4
25v MIN2026 week 3
46v CLE2026 week 2
40v CIN2026 week 1
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 51+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 56.6, median 51
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v IND2026 week 5
115v CLE2026 week 4
31v CIN2026 week 3
27v NE2026 week 2
40v ATL2026 week 1
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 22+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 40%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.5, median 16
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v IND2026 week 5
27v CLE2026 week 4
67v CIN2026 week 3
7v NE2026 week 2
18v ATL2026 week 1
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 35+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 27%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.2, median 20
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v IND2026 week 5
17v CLE2026 week 4
30v CIN2026 week 3
32v NE2026 week 2
46v ATL2026 week 1
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 22+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.3, median 9
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

87v IND2026 week 5
33v CLE2026 week 4
49v CIN2026 week 3
34v NE2026 week 2
27v ATL2026 week 1
Receptions19
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 3+ receptions-131consensus market price

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 63% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DAL2026 week 5
6v GB2026 week 4
3v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
4v CIN2026 week 1
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2+ receptions-132consensus market price

Kenny GainwellRB · TBReceptions

DataPitch 60% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DAL2026 week 5
2v GB2026 week 4
2v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
1v CIN2026 week 1
More players (7)
DoubtfulRico Dowdle RB · PIT 2+ receptions-141consensus market price

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Toe - Questionable for Week 6 at Tampa Bay

DataPitch 48% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 1.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NE2026 week 2
2v ATL2026 week 1
1v LA2025 week 19
2v TB2025 week 18
3v SEA2025 week 17
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 4+ receptions-112consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v DAL2026 week 5
2v GB2026 week 4
5v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
5v CIN2026 week 1
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceptions

DataPitch 12% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 3.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
3v CIN2026 week 3
2v NE2026 week 2
5v ATL2026 week 1
Bucky Irving RB · TB 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceptions

DataPitch 60%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DAL2026 week 5
0v GB2026 week 4
2v MIN2026 week 3
4v CLE2026 week 2
7v CIN2026 week 1
Cade Otton TE · TB 4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Cade OttonTE · TBReceptions

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DAL2026 week 5
4v GB2026 week 4
3v MIN2026 week 3
5v CLE2026 week 2
3v CIN2026 week 1
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
3v CIN2026 week 3
1v NE2026 week 2
2v ATL2026 week 1
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 21%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
2v CIN2026 week 3
4v NE2026 week 2
5v ATL2026 week 1
Rushing yards5
Bucky Irving RB · TB 62+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Bucky IrvingRB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 90%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 118.5, median 113
The line
61.5

His last 5, rushing yards

165v DAL2026 week 5
61v GB2026 week 4
46v MIN2026 week 3
89v CLE2026 week 2
45v CIN2026 week 1
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 13+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Kenny GainwellRB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 78%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 38.6, median 32
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v DAL2026 week 5
5v GB2026 week 4
-4v MIN2026 week 3
10v CLE2026 week 2
15v CIN2026 week 1
More players (3)
DoubtfulRico Dowdle RB · PIT 29+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Rico DowdleRB · PITRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Toe - Questionable for Week 6 at Tampa Bay

DataPitch 64%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.4, median 38
The line
28.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v NE2026 week 2
15v ATL2026 week 1
9v LA2025 week 19
10v TB2025 week 18
59v SEA2025 week 17
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 62+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 50%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 67.4, median 62
The line
61.5

His last 5, rushing yards

101v IND2026 week 5
93v CLE2026 week 4
127v CIN2026 week 3
43v NE2026 week 2
46v ATL2026 week 1
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 2+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Aaron RodgersQB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.9, median 0
The line
1.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v IND2026 week 5
0v CLE2026 week 4
10v CIN2026 week 3
5v NE2026 week 2
-3v ATL2026 week 1
Passing yards1
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 226+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards

DataPitch 35%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 205.6, median 200
The line
225.5

His last 5, passing yards

225v IND2026 week 5
269v CLE2026 week 4
273v CIN2026 week 3
144v NE2026 week 2
206v ATL2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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