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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYG -1.5 · total 45.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 19 rows we price on this game is strong tonight.

Strongest of themJameis WinstonQB · NYG223+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK. 1 row on this game carries a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 44+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 43.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.8, median 35
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v MIN2026 week 5
54v ATL2026 week 4
39v LV2026 week 3
64v BAL2026 week 2
69v DET2026 week 1
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 43+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 42.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.3, median 34
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v MIN2026 week 5
59v ATL2026 week 4
53v LV2026 week 3
66v BAL2026 week 2
54v DET2026 week 1
More players (5)
Chris Olave WR · NO 81+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 80.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 70.2, median 65
The line
80.5

His last 5, receiving yards

46v MIN2026 week 5
116v ATL2026 week 4
107v LV2026 week 3
86v BAL2026 week 2
182v DET2026 week 1
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 70+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 11% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 69.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.5, median 25
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

121v WAS2026 week 5
112v ARI2026 week 4
26v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
69v DAL2026 week 1
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 49+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 9% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 48.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.9, median 13
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

94v WAS2026 week 5
66v ARI2026 week 4
13v TEN2026 week 3
33v LA2026 week 2
78v DAL2026 week 1
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 9+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 76%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.1, median 22
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v WAS2026 week 5
11v ARI2026 week 4
0v LA2026 week 2
9v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 22+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.9, median 19
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

14v WAS2026 week 5
0v ARI2026 week 4
20v TEN2026 week 3
48v LA2026 week 2
27v DAL2026 week 1
Receptions7
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 5+ receptions+102consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceptions

DataPitch 33% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 4.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIN2026 week 5
6v ATL2026 week 4
8v LV2026 week 3
4v BAL2026 week 2
3v DET2026 week 1
Chris Olave WR · NO 7+ receptions-110consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 35% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 6.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.7, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIN2026 week 5
8v ATL2026 week 4
9v LV2026 week 3
8v BAL2026 week 2
10v DET2026 week 1
More players (5)
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 5+ receptions-103consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 22% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 4.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIN2026 week 5
6v ATL2026 week 4
3v LV2026 week 3
5v BAL2026 week 2
7v DET2026 week 1
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 6+ receptions+122consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 3% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 5.5: -155consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

11v WAS2026 week 5
7v ARI2026 week 4
2v TEN2026 week 3
5v LA2026 week 2
8v DAL2026 week 1
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 6+ receptions-124consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 4% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -51pp

Under 5.5: -106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

11v WAS2026 week 5
6v ARI2026 week 4
5v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
6v DAL2026 week 1
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 1+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 82%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v WAS2026 week 5
1v ARI2026 week 4
0v LA2026 week 2
1v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 24%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v WAS2026 week 5
0v ARI2026 week 4
2v TEN2026 week 3
2v LA2026 week 2
2v DAL2026 week 1
Rushing yards3
DoubtfulNajee Harris RB · NYG 20+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Najee HarrisRB · NYGRushing yards

Doubtful: his receiving yards line fell 19.5 to 14.5 between the open and the close, 26% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 72%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 42.7, median 36
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v WAS2026 week 5
30v ARI2026 week 4
52v TEN2026 week 3
6v LA2026 week 2
28v DEN2025 week 3
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 70%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.9, median 6
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

27v WAS2026 week 5
0v ARI2026 week 4
14v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
More players (1)
Tyler Shough QB · NO 10+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-14 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler ShoughQB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.5, median 11
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v MIN2026 week 5
5v ATL2026 week 4
36v LV2026 week 3
23v BAL2026 week 2
8v DET2026 week 1
Passing yards12
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 223+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGPassing yards

DataPitch 59% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 222.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 245.4, median 241
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

305v WAS2026 week 5
232v ARI2026 week 4
100v TEN2026 week 3
110v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
Tyler Shough QB · NO 241+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 240.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 247.9, median 243
The line
240.5

His last 5, passing yards

87v MIN2026 week 5
270v ATL2026 week 4
233v LV2026 week 3
233v BAL2026 week 2
378v DET2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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