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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Market line SEA -2.5 · total 47.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themCooper KuppWR · SEA3+ receptions-108consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 6 Oct, 15:43 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 26+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 62% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 25.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.6, median 34
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v LAC2026 week 4
46v WAS2026 week 3
20v ARI2026 week 2
35v NE2026 week 1
61v NE2025 week 22
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.7, median 38
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v DEN2026 week 4
41v ARI2026 week 3
43v MIA2026 week 2
20v LA2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 20
More players (6)
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 18+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 17.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.9, median 17
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v LAC2026 week 4
14v WAS2026 week 3
35v ARI2026 week 2
4v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
George Kittle TE · SF 58+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 57.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.4, median 52
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

70v DEN2026 week 4
82v ARI2026 week 3
80v MIA2026 week 2
12v LA2026 week 1
6v PHI2025 week 19
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 32+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.3, median 23
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v DEN2026 week 4
80v ARI2026 week 3
31v MIA2026 week 2
48v LA2026 week 1
20v PHI2025 week 18
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 94+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 93.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 83.8, median 78
The line
93.5

His last 5, receiving yards

76v LAC2026 week 4
128v WAS2026 week 3
155v ARI2026 week 2
122v NE2026 week 1
27v NE2025 week 22
AJ Barner TE · SEA 25+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 24.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.7, median 15
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v LAC2026 week 4
69v WAS2026 week 3
8v ARI2026 week 2
13v NE2026 week 1
54v NE2025 week 22
DoubtfulMike Evans WR · SF 49+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Ribs - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 4 vs. Denver

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 48.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.8, median 28
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

76v DEN2026 week 4
34v ARI2026 week 3
54v MIA2026 week 2
49v LA2026 week 1
34v CAR2025 week 18
Receptions8
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions-108consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 69% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 2.5: -122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 4
4v WAS2026 week 3
2v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 22
George Kittle TE · SF 5+ receptions-137consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 4.5: +104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.4, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DEN2026 week 4
6v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
2v LA2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 19
More players (6)
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptions-125consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 54% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 4.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.1, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DEN2026 week 4
4v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
5v LA2026 week 1
5v SEA2025 week 20
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 2+ receptions-172consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 48% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 1.5: +128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 4
2v WAS2026 week 3
3v ARI2026 week 2
1v NE2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 22
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 7+ receptions-130consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 6.5: -102consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.1, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LAC2026 week 4
10v WAS2026 week 3
9v ARI2026 week 2
8v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 4+ receptions-102consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DEN2026 week 4
0v ARI2026 week 3
3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
2v PHI2025 week 18
AJ Barner TE · SEA 3+ receptions-150consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 36% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 2.5: +114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 4
5v WAS2026 week 3
1v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 22
DoubtfulMike Evans WR · SF 4+ receptions-175consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Ribs - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 4 vs. Denver

DataPitch 24% · Market 64%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 3.5: +131consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DEN2026 week 4
3v ARI2026 week 3
3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 18
Rushing yards5
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 5+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 56% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 4.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v LAC2026 week 4
5v WAS2026 week 3
0v NE2026 week 1
5v NE2025 week 22
9v LA2025 week 21
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 54+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 53.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 48.6, median 43
The line
53.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v DEN2026 week 4
75v ARI2026 week 3
23v MIA2026 week 2
68v LA2026 week 1
35v SEA2025 week 20
More players (3)
George Holani RB · SEA 20+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

George HolaniRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 19.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13, median 7
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v LAC2026 week 4
10v WAS2026 week 3
13v ARI2026 week 2
29v NE2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 22
Brock Purdy QB · SF 19+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 18.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.9, median 7
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

29v DEN2026 week 4
34v ARI2026 week 3
30v MIA2026 week 2
29v LA2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 20
Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA 61+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Emanuel WilsonRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 60.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 37.6, median 31
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

81v LAC2026 week 4
14v WAS2026 week 3
92v ARI2026 week 2
3v NE2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 19
Passing yards2
Brock Purdy QB · SF 226+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 225.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 229.2, median 223
The line
225.5

His last 5, passing yards

218v DEN2026 week 4
297v ARI2026 week 3
287v MIA2026 week 2
205v LA2026 week 1
124v SEA2025 week 20
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 228+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEAPassing yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 227.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 205.7, median 200
The line
227.5

His last 5, passing yards

148v LAC2026 week 4
379v WAS2026 week 3
8v NE2026 week 1
194v NE2025 week 22
321v LA2025 week 21

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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