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New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line WAS -3 · total 43.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

5 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards2
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 64+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 25%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.6, median 38
The line
63.5

His last 5, receiving yards

112v ARI2026 week 4
26v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
69v DAL2026 week 1
20v LAC2025 week 4
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 45+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 20%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.6, median 21
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v ARI2026 week 4
13v TEN2026 week 3
33v LA2026 week 2
78v DAL2026 week 1
32v PIT2025 week 18
Rushing yards2
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 64+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 24%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.2, median 37
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

58v ARI2026 week 4
60v TEN2026 week 3
36v LA2026 week 2
81v DAL2026 week 1
12v PHI2025 week 8
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 58+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 21%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 36.5, median 29
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v IND2026 week 4
36v SEA2026 week 3
43v DAL2026 week 2
63v PHI2026 week 1
29v PHI2025 week 18
Passing yards1
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 212+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGPassing yards

DataPitch 68%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 251.9, median 246
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

232v ARI2026 week 4
100v TEN2026 week 3
110v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
362v DET2025 week 12

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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